Mets vs. Diamondbacks Odds
| Mets Odds | -155 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | +125 |
| Over/Under | 9.5 |
| Time | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
After blowing a save in the ninth inning, the New York Mets managed to scratch a run in the top of the 10th to defeat the Arizona Diamondbacks 6-5 in the series opener on Friday night. The win improved the Mets to 11-4, which is the best record in baseball.
There's plenty to be excited about for Mets fans considering their team ranks in the top five in both hitting (.257 batting average) and pitching (2.67 ERA). Saturday's matchup will have a bit of a different feel since it will likely be more of a bullpen game.
Humberto Castellanos will get the start for Arizona, while Mets beat writer Mike Puma reports that New York could go with Trevor Williams as their starter. Castellanos has eight starts in 25 career appearances, whereas Williams has 109 starts and 131 total outings.
That experience could make all the difference in the Mets' quest for a third straight victory.
Mets To Lean Heavily on Bullpen
Even with starters Jacob deGrom and Taijuan Walker on the injured list, the Mets appear to have enough depth to overcome their absences. And given the opposition this weekend, the 5-9 Diamondbacks are a perfect opponent for the Mets to give their rotation an extra day of rest.
This would be Williams' third appearance of 2022, with both previous outings coming in relief. As a result, he's only logged 1 2/3 innings, so it'll be interesting to see how deep he can pitch in the game.
As mentioned earlier, Williams has plenty of experience as a starter, which could mean it'd be easier for him to stretch out in the game. And even with a disappointing showing from their bullpen on Friday, I think the Mets have enough quality to get over the line.
Most teams' bullpens have been dominant this season as only seven teams in the league have an ERA over 4.00. The Mets bullpen has a 3.61 ERA, which puts them 21st in the majors. The good news for New York is the advanced numbers do point to some positive regression for its relievers, as evidenced by a lower 3.42 FIP and 2.93 xFIP. Thus, perhaps there's no better opportunity to back this Mets bullpen than after it blew a 5-1 lead in the later innings of the game.
Arizona Relief Corps Need To Improve
It would've been a cruel result for the Mets if they lost on Friday because I thought they were in control for much of the game. The Mets have dominated the Diamondbacks through four meetings this season, outscoring them 23-11.
You could argue that Arizona has looked a bit better of late after winning two of their past three games and scoring 20 runs during that stretch. However, 15 of those runs came against a Nationals team at the bottom of the National League East at 6-10 record.
Moreover, the overall offensive numbers for the Diamondbacks remain abysmal, considering they have the worst batting average (.180) in the league.
I dug into the numbers to see whether it's just been a run of bad luck plaguing the Diamondbacks. However, Arizona's Pythagorean expectation shows a .349 win percentage, which is right in line with its current win percentage (.357). Thus, I'll need to see much more from this Diamondbacks offense before I can start feeling comfortable backing this team moving forward.
At first glance, Arizona's pitching looks to be a bright spot for the team as it ranks 12th with a 3.41 ERA. However, the Diamondbacks' 4.24 FIP and 4.55 xFIP suggest that some regression could be in their future. If we delve deeper, we'll find that Arizona does have a considerable discrepancy between the production it's getting from its starters compared to its relievers. Arizona's starters rank third with a 2.45 ERA, whereas its bullpen is 26th with a 4.38 ERA.
On Friday, the Mets managed to wait out Arizona starter Zac Gallen, who was solid and allowed one run in his five innings. However, as soon as he departed, the Mets pounced on the Diamondbacks' relievers and scored a pair of runs in back-to-back innings.
It's worth noting that 18 of New York's 23 runs against Arizona have occurred in the sixth inning or later. That should be problematic with the Diamondbacks expected to empty its bullpen on Saturday.
Mets-Diamondbacks Pick
Although playing underdogs in baseball can be very profitable, this situational spot doesn't bode well for the Diamondbacks. My model makes the Mets as high as a -158 favorite which offers me some value in the market with New York as low as -141 at SugarHouse.
Moreover, our BetLabs database, which dates back to 2005, shows that the Mets have dominated this series as they're 62-48 for 9.54 units. New York has also had success against Arizona when it's on a two-game winning streak as it's 11-2 in this spot.
Lastly, I like New York's chances to put up some runs against this Arizona relief core on the road. The data shows the Mets have scored at least five runs in eight of their past nine games at Chase Field. I think that can continue on Saturday, so I'll look to play New York's team total over 4.5 runs for a half-unit.
Pick: Mets ML (-141)
Bonus: Mets Over 4.5 runs (-132, 0.5 unit)
