The Mets will need to summon both the power of Grimace and the postseason pumpkin on Friday night for NLCS Game 5 against the Dodgers to keep their season alive after suffering two blowout losses at Citi Field.
Can the Mets force a Game 6 back in Los Angeles at Dodger Stadium? I'm not so sure, but I do have a Mets vs Dodgers parlay for Game 5 that features picks for the moneyline, Francisco Lindor and Enrique Hernandez.
Mets vs Dodgers Parlay for NLCS Game 5
- Dodgers ML (-135)
- Enrique Hernandez 2+ total bases (+200)
- Francisco Lindor to record a hit (-220)
Parlay Odds: +503 (DraftKings)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Mets vs Dodgers Parlay Leg 1: Moneyline
Dodgers Moneyline (-135)
This is where the Mets' lack of an ace really stands out. In a door-or-die game, it would be nice to have an ace-caliber pitcher to go to — New York doesn't have that luxury.
But while the Mets don't have a true go-to guy, settling for David Peterson isn't a bad alternative. The big southpaw posted a career-best 2.90 ERA and 3.67 FIP this season. He's primarily been utilized as a reliever throughout the MLBplayoffs, so we'll see how deep Peterson can go.
The one glaring issue during Peterson's breakout year has been free passes, which isn't a new issue. He posted a 3.42 BB/9 and the Dodgers — one of the most patient teams in the league — could make Peterson's outing brief if the walks get out of control.
Mets manager Carlos Mendoza put a ton of faith in Kodai Senga in Game 1, but likely made the wise choice of starting Peterson instead of Senga as an opener type.
I’d imagine everything is on the table with the Mets in a deep hole. Only 14 teams in MLB history have gone down 3-1 and win the series, so the Mets have the odds stacked heavily against them. That doesn’t mean they’ll lose in five, though I think it ends up being the case.
The Dodgers clearly hold the lineup advantage over the Mets, but I also trust Jack Flaherty more than Peterson.
Flaherty has made two strong postseason starts so far as the Dodgers' "ace." The one potential concern about Flaherty is his disappearing strikeouts.
He posted a 10.7 K/9 in the regular season, but that figure has dipped to 5.84 in 12 2/3 postseason innings. Maybe it's by design, but I'm just hoping it's not a sign of him wearing down after pitching the most innings in his career since 2019.
Mets vs Dodgers Parlay Leg 2: LA's Postseason Weapon
Enrique Hernandez 2+ Total Bases (+200)
Traditionally, I don’t believe in players being “clutch.”
But Enrique Hernandez is a totally different dude once the bright October lights start blaring. When the Dodgers weren't getting production from Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts, Hernandez answered the call.
Now, with Ohtani and Betts hitting, it could lead to more hittable pitches as the Mets might practice caution when facing the red-hot Ohtani and Betts. Hernandez is second among Dodgers hitters in OPS this postseason behind only Max Muncy.
Hernandez's hot streak dates back to the final two weeks of the regular season. He hit .341 with an OPS over .900 and a trifecta of homers. As a doubter in the "clutch gene," it makes me feel more comfortable that Hernandez is riding a nearly month-long hot streak.
In his postseason career, Hernandez boasts a .283 batting average and .898 OPS with 15 homers and 33 RBI in 205 at-bats. It’s not some small sample of him dominating in October.
I'll ride the Hernandez hot streak and grab his 2+ total bases prop at a juicy +200.
Mets vs Dodgers Parlay Leg 3: Count on Lindor
Francisco Lindor to Record a Hit (-220)
Since I rolled with a plus money play for leg 2 of the SGP, I wanted to grab a "safer" pick for the final leg. The safe leg I'm going with is Francisco Lindor to record a hit.
Lindor and Flaherty haven't faced off much — just twice and Lindor hasn't recorded a hit. Still, Lindor has recorded a hit in five of his 10 postseason games this year, including four multi-hit outings.
Although Lindor will likely finish as the runner-up to Ohtani for NL MVP, he'll look to keep the Mets' season alive. It's not an exaggeration to call 2024 Lindor's best season, as he finished with a 137 wRC+ and he has a .857 OPS this postseason.
All we need is one hit from one of the best players in the sport. It's a nice bonus that he also hits leadoff, so the opportunities will be there.
