Dodgers vs Mets Odds
| LA Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-200 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -1.5 +100 |
| NY Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+165 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +1.5 -120 |
The New York Mets are feeling it, winning six out of their last seven games as they head into a three-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium.
The latest Dodgers vs Mets odds for Friday night have the Dodgers listed as -200 favorites on the moneyline, with an over/under that has settled at 8.5 runs. My Dodgers vs Mets prediction, however, is on the First Five (F5) innings run line.
Can the Mets find a way to get to Dodgers right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto and extend their winning streak to five games? Find out in my Dodgers vs Mets preview, which includes my MLB betting pick.
New York Mets
It's been a magical run for the Mets. They've drawn an easy schedule (Pirates and Royals) over the past week but have taken care of business in convincing fashion.
This team sits 12th in wRC+, but it's been the pitching staff that's been most impressive lately (six total runs allowed in the last four games).
The story to watch on offense for the Mets will be this stellar run of plate discipline. They have a 19% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate through 18 games, both of which are very much in the elite territory.
However, the Mets haven't done much damage in the power department, with a low Isolated Power and poor marks in the quality-of-contact categories. They'll need to win with a barrage of hits and walks, most likely.
Then there's Sean Manaea. Is he good? Well, I think we're all under the impression that he wasn't — given even the Giants weren't able to successfully harness the talent that we once saw five years ago in Oakland.
He's had a decent start to the season (4.29 ERA through three starts), but two of them came against the Tigers and Reds before he surrendered eight runs (six earned) against the Royals.
I think that outing is much more indicative of the pitcher Manaea is. He walked three and struck out four, allowing nine hits and a homer.
He's been an extreme fly-ball pitcher this season after pulling up his ground-ball rate last season to stabilize a bit. And as a result, his Expected Batting Average has jumped to a career-worst .279, which is ugly next to his 10.8% walk rate.
Sure, he's struck out more batters this season, but that has a lot to do with two matchups against the Reds and Tigers.
Los Angeles Dodgers
On the other side of the coin, we have a pitcher who had a similarly-disastrous outing and a run of good ones, though the difference here is that Yamamoto's came in the Japan Series back in mid-March. Ever since then, he's been incredibly solid.
Yamamoto has it all, striking out hitters nearly 32% of the time to put him just outside the top 10% of all pitchers. He couples that with a ground-ball rate of nearly 50%.
He gives up a high percentage of hard-hit balls, but with almost half of the contact coming back on the ground and many balls not even coming back into play, he's a worthy pitcher to back on a start-to-start basis.
He's also walked an average of just one batter per start.
The Dodgers may be waffling a bit right now (five losses in their last seven games), but I'm not overly concerned just yet. Their ground-ball rate is once again the lowest in the league, and they're third in hard-hit rate.
The biggest issue is that their strikeout rate is up, and while Manaea has done a decent job in that area this year, I'm not totally sold yet given his history over the last couple of seasons.
On top of that, as one of the more fly-ball heavy pitchers in baseball, even the punchouts may not be able to save him here. And you also have to consider the fact that the Dodgers are still walking very frequently.
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Mets vs. Dodgers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Since the start of last season, the Dodgers have done well to defeat the lefty allegations, posting a 114 wRC+ in the split last season and a 110 wRC+ in the early goings this season.
I'm not too worried about them hitting lefties, nor am I particularly concerned about the potential for more strikeouts — since Manaea has serious control problems and damage is being done when the ball comes back into play.
L.A. should be perfectly suited to hit Manaea where it hurts.
On the other hand, Yamamoto's ability to limit baserunners should take the Mets' offense out of this one. They lack power at this point in the season.
With the Dodgers' bullpen in flux a bit, and New York's looking solid, I'll go with the F5 run line.
