Mets vs Nationals Odds | Expert Prediction for NL East Clash
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New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Pick
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-120 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -1.5 +135 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+100 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +1.5 -160 |
The New York Mets and Washington Nationals will kick off a four-game series on Monday night at Nationals Park as these two NL East rivals both look to get over .500.
New York (40-41) has been one of the hottest teams in the league since Grimace came around. The Nationals (39-44) are four games out of that same NL wild-card spot, and 15 1/2 games out of the NL East lead. They are just 3-7 in their last 10 games and have a run differential of -15 on the season.
Mets vs Nationals odds have the the Mets as -120 moneyline favorites as they have the advantage offensively while Washington has the starting pitcher edge with MacKenzie Gore over David Peterson. The over/under for this game is set at 8 (-105o / -115u) with winds projected to be blowing in at about 10 mph.
Let's break down this NL East clash in my MLB betting preview and get to my Mets vs Nationals prediction for Monday, July 1.
David Peterson gets the nod for the Mets tonight. He has a 3.67 ERA over five Major League starts this season, but an xERA of 6.12 and a FIP of 5.01. Peterson’s career ERA is 4.45 so it would seem like he is vastly outperforming his peripherals here.
Peterson has been able to strand 80.4% of his runners on base despite a low strikeout rate and a 73.2% career strand rate. He ranks in the 13th percentile in whiff rate and strikeout rate, 19th percentile in walk rate, and his contact quality metrics aren’t any better.
He ranks in the 11th percentile in hard hit rate allowed, 38th percentile in barrel rate allowed, and 6th percentile in average exit velocity. His one saving grace is that he's in the 88th percentile in ground ball rate, but if you can get his pitches elevated then you will likely have good results.
The Mets have been red-hot lately, due in large part to their offense. They rank 4th in wRC+ this season and 6th in wOBA. They walk at the 9th-highest rate in the league and strikeout at the 7th-lowest rate, putting plenty of balls in play. Statcast numbers support their results as they are 6th in hard hit rate, 5th in barrel rate, and 8th in exit velocity.
New York hasn’t had any issues against left-handed pitching, which should help them out today. They rank 2nd in wRC+, 4th in wOBA, 4th in ISO, 4th in SLG, and 6th in OBP against southpaws in 2024.
Left-hander MacKenzie Gore will be taking the mound for the Nationals tonight. In his second season in Washington, the 25-year old is putting up some impressive strikeout numbers and has a career-best ERA of 3.60.
Over 16 starts and 85 IP, Gore has a 3.79 xERA and 3.54 SIERA, which is relatively in line with his ERA. He also has 99 strikeouts and a 26.6% strikeout rate (78th percentile). Gore is 9th out of 80 pitchers with 80+ IP in Stuff+ and 24th in Pitching+.
His walk rate is slightly better than league average and he has also done well with contact metrics, allowing a 72nd percentile hard hit rate, 71st percentile barrel rate, and 85th percentile average exit velocity.
Washington has struggled offensively this season. They are 24th in wRC+ and wOBA. The Nationals walk at a below average rate and strikeout at an above average rate, which isn’t typically a recipe for success. Because of this they are just 23rd in OBP and 27th in SLG.
The Nationals also do not make much quality contact, ranking 29th in hard hit rate, 30th in barrel rate, and 29th in average exit velocity.
Contrary to the Mets, the Nationals have struggled against left-handed pitching this season. They rank just 28th in wRC+ and wOBA against lefties with the 2nd-highest ground ball rate in MLB, which isn’t a good matchup against David Peterson.
Mets vs. Nationals
Betting Pick & Prediction
MacKenzie Gore is the better pitcher in this matchup but has a much tougher opponent in the Mets. This is a good offense that has hit lefties well and doesn’t strike out a ton. So, Gore will have his hands full. He is good enough to overcome this, but the Mets’ offense has been a tough out.
On the other side, I would love to fade Peterson, but the Nationals’ offense doesn’t instill any hope in me. They have been putrid overall, but especially against lefties. They don’t hit the ball hard or walk, and they hit a ton of ground balls, particularly against left-handers. Even with Peterson’s deficiencies, this is a good matchup for him as he may continue his run of good luck.
I hate fading the better pitcher in the game with the moneyline being as close as it is, but the matchup clearly points in one direction here. While I like Gore and think he could potentially do well, I trust the Mets’ offense (and the Nationals’ lack thereof) to be the difference in tonight's matchup.
Pick: Mets ML (-106) | Bet to (-115)
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