Mets vs. Phillies Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+102 | 9.5 -110/ -110 | -1.5 +162 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -120 | 9.5 -110/ -110 | +1.5 -196 |
Northeast rivals, the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies, square off on Friday night on Apple TV+ for just the second series this season out of four, with the Mets having swept the first series back in early June. It's the Phillies, however, who are higher in the standings among these two relatively disappointing would-be contenders in 2023.
Friday night's pitching matchup sees Kodai Senga take the mound for the Mets, while Taijuan Walker toes the rubber for the Phillies. Two pedestrian starters along with a healthy outgoing breeze in a home run-friendly stadium could make for a potential over, so let's dive in.
New York Mets
The Mets will turn to Kodai Senga on Friday night, and the 30-year-old rookie has had a solid first season in MLB. His 3.52 ERA paints him in a slightly flattering light, though (4.24 FIP), and he has struggled away from home. His 4.78 ERA away from Citi Field (compared to 2.52 at home) shows a pitcher who maybe hasn't fully settled into pitching on the road in Major League Baseball just yet.
Offensively, the Mets have been solid throughout the season. They own a 103 wRC+ for the season, and that number is at 106 for the past month and 107 for the past two weeks. They have remained consistent even despite players going in and out of the lineup.
Francisco Alvarez is one player who helped offset the loss of Pete Alonso (who returned to the lineup last week after missing eight games). Alvarez has broken onto the scene in his rookie season, already leaving the yard 12 times in just 51 games (175 plate appearances). The young backstop has a 70/70 raw power grade from FanGraphs, so this is not some fluke either. His max exit velocity is already in the top 10% in the league, and yet the books haven't quite adjusted.
Alvarez is +575 to homer on Friday night with a solid matchup, good weather for long balls (ballparkpal has Citizens as the second-best environment for home runs Friday night), and the potential of those juicy Apple TV+ baseballs. He also got a day off Wednesday before the team as a whole had the day off Thursday, so he is very fresh.
Philadelphia Phillies
As for the Phillies, there's a bit less happening.
Their starting pitcher, Taijuan Walker, has settled in to just about exactly what he should be at this point — a league-average pitcher. Nothing pops on his page — his ERA, xERA, FIP and xFIP are all within a quarter of a run of each other, "ranging" from 4.31 to 4.53. His Strikeout Rate is bleh, but he induces a fair number of groundballs — enough to remain palatable. However, he can be a bit homer prone at times, and especially with the wind blowing out, if Alvarez can elevate a pitch Walker does not have the stuff to blow it past him.
Mets vs. Phillies Betting Pick
In fact, for the game as a whole, I like the over. The total came out at 9 and has been bet up to 9.5, but I'd still take that over. I also quite like the Alvarez home run prop as noted above, and if pressed, I would lean to the Mets moneyline in what is basically a pick `em.
Pick: Over 9.5 |
Pick: Francisco Alvarez to Hit a Home Run +420 |
