The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies will travel to Queens, New York, on Tuesday for Game 3 of the NLDS.
The Miracle Mets continue to have improbable comebacks in their postseason games, but they fell short on Sunday when Nick Castellanos drove in the winning run in the 9th to even up the series. It’s been two weeks since the Mets have played a game at Citi Field, so expectations for the crowd on Tuesday afternoon are high.
It'll be Aaron Nola on the mound for the Phillies and Sean Manaea for the Mets. Find my Mets vs Phillies parlay for Game 3 of the NLDS below.
Mets vs Phillies Parlay Picks for Game 3 of the NLDS
- New York Mets ML
- First Five Innings Over 3.5 Runs
- Nick Castellanos Over 1.5 Total Bases
Parlay Odds: +900 (bet365)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Mets vs Phillies Parlay Leg 1
Mets ML
This is not only a market play for me, but the Mets' late-game magic has reached the point that it needs to be considered in the handicap.
It's not a great matchup for Manaea, but the Mets offense has a transparent edge late in the game.
The Phillies bullpen imploded in Games 1 and 2, and none of the relievers can be trusted now. I am also very fond of the matchup against Nola, who allowed a lot more hard contact than usual during the regular season compared to years past.
Both offenses will have success tonight, but I trust the Mets' offense to come out on top when things are all set and done, primarily due to the edge late in the game. Citi Field should be rocking, given how magical of a ride it's been over the last two weeks. It is surprising to see the market giving so much love to the Phillies.
64% of the betting tickets are on the Phillies, but only 46% of the money is on them. Some sharp money has come across on the Mets, and I am more than happy to be aligned with the sharps for tonight's pivotal Game 2.
Mets vs Phillies Parlay Leg 2
F5 Over 3.5
Both offenses have taken some time to heat up in each game of the series, but tonight is an excellent opportunity for both to get the scoring started early.
The Mets hitters are batting .272 against with 10 home runs and 10 extra-base hits across 243 at-bats against Nola.
Many Mets hitters, such as Starling Marte, Jose Iglesias, and Pete Alonso, have previously owned Nola. They are all batting above .300 against him, and Alonso has torched him for five homers.
Meanwhile, the Phillies have excellent numbers against Manaea. Across 97 at-bats against New York's lefty, the Phils' hitters are batting .309.
Bryce Harper and Trea Turner are notable hitters, as they both hit above .300. There's a good chance that both offenses get the party started early in the Big Apple, which has yet to be the case in the series thus far.
Mets vs Phillies Parlay Leg 3
Nick Castellanos Over 1.5 Total Bases
Castellanos enters the matchup after his heroics in Game 1, and he draws an excellent matchup against Sean Manaea.
Castellanos has always been a much better hitter against left-handed pitching, and his results during the regular season prove that — he posted a .270 average and a .450 expected slugging against southpaws this year with 10 homers.
Castellanos has dominated against Manaea in the past, particularly in the extra-base hit department. Castellanos is 6-for-16 with three home runs and a double in the head-to-head matchup.
If those numbers weren't convincing enough, Manaea features a sinker 44% of the time in his pitch arsenal. Castellanos slashed a .343 xBA and.577 xSLG against sinkers during the regular season.
