The New York Mets have a massive Sunday Night Baseball game against the Philadelphia Phillies. The Mets have won two of three against the Phillies and are clinging to an NL wild-card spot.
Tonight, we've got a good pitching matchup on deck as Zack Wheeler starts for the Phillies and Tylor Megill goes for the Mets.
Oddsmakers make the Mets +130 underdogs on the moneyline and set the over/under at 7. I was able to compile a 3-leg SGP that pays over 6-1 on your original investment.
So, let's get to my Mets vs. Phillies MLB parlay picks.
Mets vs Phillies MLB Parlay Picks for Sunday Night Baseball
- Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-162)
- First Five Innings Under 3.5 (-120)
- Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Parlay Odds: +383 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-162)
Phillies vs. Mets, 7:15 p.m. ET
Wheeler has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, and tonight, he'll try to slow down a red-hot Mets team. Wheeler has plenty of experience against his former team, who has amassed over 140 at-bats against him.
Wheeler has outstanding metrics and ranks above the 90th percentile in the following categories:
- xERA
- xBA
- Average Exit Velocity
- Chase Rate
The Mets began the year in the bottom 10 in strikeout rate, but have been more prone to striking out since the All-Star Break and are now 16th in baseball in strikeouts per game.
Wheeler is coming off a six-strikeout performance, but has always pitched exceptionally well at Citi Field. He hasn't faced the Mets yet this season, but I expect him to turn in a bounce-back performance in the strikeout department.
I expect Wheeler to pitch deep into the game, giving him ample opportunity to clear six strikeouts. I'm also not too concerned about the 17% strikeout rate New York's hitters have against Wheeler in the past as he's pitching on another level this season.
First Five Innings Under 3.5 (-120)
Phillies vs. Mets, 7:15 p.m. ET
Wheeler has had a terrific 2024 season. Opposing him is Megill, a tricky pitcher, but one with excellent underlying metrics.
On Tuesday, Megill escaped trouble against the Nationals, but churned in another excellent start. The Phillies' are batting .208 lifetime against Megill over 72 at-bats.
Over the past month, Megill has a 1.69 ERA across 22 innings. He's been highly effective and has proven he can pitch at a high level.
Despite mixed results in the bullpen and starting rotation, Megill has a .230 xBA and also ranks above the 70th percentile in whiff rate and strikeout percentage. Also, his control has been better recently.
I expect both offenses to struggle in the early portion of this game. The total has already started to creep down to 6.5, so I think this is the best way to target the under.
Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Phillies vs. Mets, 7:15 p.m. ET
Despite Wheeler being a terrific pitcher, Brandon Nimmo has his number. In his career, Nimmo has hit .293 against Wheeler (41 at-bats). And among those 12 hits, Nimmo has five extra-base hits.
Yes, he's been terrible in the second half of the season and is batting .227, but he's hitting .261 with two homers and eight RBI in the past week, a sign he may be turning things around. I understand that taking this prop is a bit of a risk, but the implied odds are off, given Nimmo's history against Wheeler.
Nimmo needs one extra-base hit to clear the prop and I'm willing to say he can get that done.
