The New York Mets look to remain red-hot at the plate with an opportunity to eliminate the rival Philadelphia Phillies from postseason contention on Wednesday night.
It's Game 4 of the NLDS and the Mets lead 2-1 thanks to a dominant performance from Sean Manaea in front of the Citi Field faithful on Tuesday.
With their backs against the wall, the Phillies will send out left-hander Ranger Suarez in Game 4. The Mets counter with Wild Card hero Jose Quintana, who threw six shutout innings against the Milwaukee Brewers in a do-or-die Game 3 bout.
Can the Mets close the door and keep their fairytale season going into the NLCS with a win, or will the Phillies push back and force a Game 5 back at Citizens Bank? Here's my Mets vs Phillies parlay for Game 4.
Mets vs Phillies MLB Parlay Picks for Game 4
- Ranger Suarez Under 12.5 Outs (+100)
- Brandon Nimmo RBI (+230)
- Weston Wilson to not get a hit (-120)
Parlay Odds: +900 (Bet365)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Mets vs Phillies Parlay Leg 1: Will Ranger Suarez Have a Long Leash?
Ranger Suarez Under 12.5 Outs Recorded (+100)
Ranger Suarez gets the very difficult task of pitching in an elimination game. Tack on the fact that he’s really struggled both with location and success in general, this is shaping into an early night for the southpaw.
The Phillies will be quick to go to the bullpen if things get out of hand. And Suarez has shown no reason to be confident in the southpaw.
In the month of September, Suarez has thrown 22 1/3 innings, allowing 31 hits and 15 runs! That’s a 6.04 ERA. He’s also walked 12 batters — at least two each game.
The Mets are an offense that typically fares much better against left-handed pitching. In the last 30 days, New York is 8th in wRC+ against southpaws and sit inside the top 10 in strikeout rate (second-highest BB/K).
This is a team that will make you work, grind out walks and have much better splits with a righty-heavy lineup.
Carlos Mendoza will make the proper adjustments — J.D. Martinez in for Jesse Winker, etc. — to help combat the lefty Suarez.
I would not be surprised to see Suarez last just one time through the order before all hands are on deck in Game 4.
Could the Phillies even have a trick up their sleeve with Zack Wheeler or Cristopher Sanchez? That’s certainly a possibility.
Mets vs Phillies Parlay Leg 2: Brandon Nimmo on Postseason Heater
Brandon Nimmo RBI (+230)
Brandon Nimmo has been incredible in this postseason for the Mets. He has a hit in all but one game and is hitting .304 with an .842 OPS in the middle of the order.
More importantly, he has scored a run or recorded an RBI in every single game this postseason.
Billy Beane would be loving Nimmo right now — the man gets on base.
Interestingly enough, it seems as though books don’t account for Nimmo being split proof. In fact, he is hitting over 30 points better against left-handed pitching (.248) than right-handed pitching (.215). While his power numbers may drop off, he has been as reliable as it comes in the middle of the Mets' order.
Keeping in mind Suarez’s inability to limit damage and havoc on the base paths, I’m looking to buy Nimmo in the RBI department, which is among our top-ranked edges of today’s game.
Action Pro has this closer to 0.5, so over a 10% edge to the best number in the market (+230).
Dating back to the last series against the Phillies, Nimmo has recorded an RBI in 7-of-8 games. The only game he didn’t? Yesterday, when he walked twice.
Trust Nimmo to stay hot at the plate ahead of on-base machine Francisco Lindor and the blooming Mark Vientos.
Mets vs Phillies Parlay Leg 3: Fade Weston Wilson
Weston Wilson to Not Get a Hit (-120)
I’m running a similar tactic from yesterday when I faded Johan Rojas in the hit department.
If the game presents a high-leverage situation and Weston Wilson is at the plate, I expect him to be pinch-hit for. And even if he isn't — based on his No. 8 spot in the lineup, he may only see three total at-bats.
Not to mention that over the last month, Wilson is hitting just .206. He doesn't have an everyday role and has served mostly as a depth piece or pinch hitter.
He has become a lefty specialist of sorts (.341 average) but may very well only see Quintana once. Even if he does a second time, we just saw the success Quintana had in a high-leverage situation. Wilson has yet to swing a bat in the postseason this year.
Wilson is purely in to provide a spark of offense against the lefty Quintana because we've seen plenty of struggles out of Rojas. The Mets have a righty-heavy bullpen, and if that's the case and Wilson is up at-bat late, we should see a player like Kody Clemens come in. And if the Phillies lead, Rojas may purely be used as a defensive piece in center.
I’ll take my chances at a near coin-flip price that Wilson does not get a hit. There are a lot of outs here.
