Mets vs. Phillies Odds
| Mets Odds | +137 |
| Phillies Odds | -163 |
| Over/Under | 9 |
| Time | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
It may be April, but this series has an October feel to it as the New York Mets will look to rebound after a crushing loss in the series opener as they blew a four-run lead in the eighth inning.
On an even brighter note for the Phillies, their ace and former Met, Zack Wheeler, will make his season debut after dealing with some shoulder soreness in the offseason. He did stretch out to 65 pitches in his latest simulated game, but he likely won't go deep into this outing. Despite that, Wheeler could make his presence felt, and his impact will dictate our angle for this matchup.
Can the Mets Get to Wheeler Early?
I eluded to the history between the New York Mets and Zack Wheeler, although the most recent story to tell of the two is about Wheeler's sustained success since he signed in Philadelphia. The 2021 NL CY Young Runner-Up has made it a point to stick it to his former team.
In eight starts against the Mets, Wheeler is 4-1 with a 2.63 ERA. However, those numbers should be even better, according to Statcast. In 172 at-bats against the current Mets' lineup, Wheeler's expected batting average against them is just .248, and adding to that is a history of poor contact as the Mets' xwOBA in those at-bats is .280.
Upon the announcement that Wheeler would be starting this game, GM Dave Dombrowski said that he could throw 70-75 pitches. That would allow Wheeler to pitch into the fifth inning in a perfect world. While things, certainly won't be perfect, Wheeler getting into the fifth would put the Phils in a wonderful spot.
Phil's Lefties Could Thrive Against Megill
Tylor Megill may have looked like an ace as he filled in for one on Opening Day. However, his career numbers suggest he could be in line for a rough outing against a revamped Philidelphia lineup.
In his career, Megill has allowed lefties to hit .312 and post a .412 wOBA. Those numbers are a sign of trouble against this Phillies lineup which already featured Didi Gregorious and NL MVP Bryce Harper. However, Dave Dombrowski's big offseason signing, Kyle Schwarber, gives the Phillies a terrifying trio.
On top of Megill's inability to get lefties out, Harper and Schwarber have been "Met Killers" in their careers. Having spent his entire career in the NL East, Harper has nearly an entire season worth of at-bats against the Mets. In 152 games, Harper has hit .267 with 30 homers and 90 RBIs against the Mets.
Schwarber's sample size is much smaller, but his damage done against the Mets is significant. In 30 games, Schwarber is hitting .343 with 13 homers and 26 RBIs.
Through the first five games, Girardi has utilized Schwarber as their leadoff hitter with Harper parked in the three-hole. We may also see No. 1 prospect Bryson Stott get a start at third base after Alec Bohm's defensive struggles. Megill will be put to the test early and often.
Mets-Phillies Pick
There is an apparent pitching mismatch in this one, and if this game were in July, Philly would be a much heavier favorite as Wheeler's pitch count is factored in. However, I am hoping to get as many outs as possible out of Wheeler as he should once again be fired up to vanquish the Mets.
He also should be in line to get plenty of early run support as Girardi will have his best lefties towards the top of the lineup. It would not surprise me to see Schwarber, Harper, or Gregorious park one into the right-field stands. Back the Phils to get ahead early and stay ahead.
Pick: Phillies — F5 ML (-150)
