Mets vs. Phillies Odds
| Mets Odds | +100 |
| Phillies Odds | -120 |
| Over/Under | 8 (+105/-125) |
| Time | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
This game is the 16th meeting between the the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies this season, with New York winning 11 of the first 15 matchups.
Will New York's success against the Phillies continue, or can Philadelphia grab a victory as a short home favorite?
Bassitt Should Hound Phillies Hitters
The New York Mets enter this series in great form, winning 11 of their last 16 games. I expect this trend to continue with right-hander Chris Bassitt slated to take the mound.
Through 22 starts this season, Bassitt is 10-7 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Based on his strong metrics, we should not expect any regression from Bassitt.
This year, Bassitt boasts a .277 xwOBA, .218 xBA and .341 xSLG. Entering this game in particularly good form, Bassitt is coming off three straight starts without surrendering an earned run.
This strong stretch should continue against the Phillies, a team that Bassitt has dominated. Over his three starts against Philadelphia this season, Bassitt is 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.
Additionally, Bassitt could get some good run support as the Mets are slated to go against right-hander Aaron Nola. Since July 1, New York ranks fifth in the league in BA, fifth in SLG, fifth in OPS, fourth in wOBA and eighth in hard-hit percentage when facing right-handed pitchers.
Through 226 career plate appearances against Nola, this current Mets roster boasts a .274 BA, .447 SLG, and .353 wOBA.
Nola In Good Form
Nola is 8-9 with a 3.07 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 23 starts so far this season.
Nola's metrics, recent form and outings against New York all suggest that this solid season will continue. So why fade Philadelphia?
I do not trust this team's hitting against right-handers, especially Bassitt. Since July 1, the Phillies rank 18th in the league in BA, 17th in OPS and 19th in wOBA.
Through 79 career plate appearances against Bassitt, this current Phillies roster possesses a mere .233 xBA, .373 xSLG, and .288 xwOBA. Philadelphia has lost all three of their matchups against Bassitt this season.
Mets-Phillies Pick
This game should be good with two strong pitchers set to square off. While the under is a strong play, New York's hitting has been too good against right-handers to take a total at 7.5.
Therefore, we are going to back Bassitt to shut down Philadelphia once again. I believe we are getting great value in him at plus money due to the fact that Nola is starting at home for Philadelphia.
However, I would argue that Bassitt is every bit as good as Nola, and with New York also boasting the advantage in the hitting department, the Mets should be able to keep their strong play against Philadelphia going.
Pick: New York Mets ML (+100) | Play up to (-115)
