Mets vs. Phillies Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -120 | 9.5 +102/ -122 | -1.5 +135 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+102 | 9.5 +102/ -122 | +1.5 -165 |
Since the New YorkMets swept the Philadelphia Phillies at the beginning of June, the two teams have trended in completely opposite directions. The Mets are 4-14 since the end of that series and fallen way out of the NL playoff picture, while the Phillies have vaulted themselves into the race with a 14-5 record on the back of the league's best starting pitching in June.
The Phillies will turn to Cristopher Sánchez to try to pitch 4-5 innings on Saturday before turning it over to the much improved bullpen from past seasons. The Mets counter with Max Scherzer, who hasn't been nearly as good this season as his reputation would suggest.
Given the Mets struggles against southpaws for the last 1.5 years and Sánchez's underrated stuff, the Phillies are a bit undervalued on Saturday at home. The market still has some residual respect for Scherzer, who could find his old form at any time, but has shown no signs in 2023 of being the same pitcher.
Let’s break it all down in our Mets vs. Phillies preview and find a value betting pick.
New York Mets
With the exception of the shortened 2020 COVID season, Max Scherzer's expected ERA has been below three in every MLB season since StatCast was widely available for tracking in 2015. Scherzer has consistently posted a strikeout rate north of 30% in each MLB season too. In 2023, Scherzer's xERA has risen to 3.44, partially due to a drop in his strikeout rate from 30.6% to 25.7%.
That drop is evident in his entire profile — his contact rates allowed on pitches inside the zone is up and his swinging strike rate is down. That's typically a sign of declining stuff for a pitcher, as he's no longer able to miss bats inside the zone with the velocity or movement on his pitches.
If you look at the underlying pitch data, the Stuff+ is in some decline too. Scherzer's fastball measured a 112 Stuff+ in 2022 and helped him post an overall Stuff+ of 112. Combine that with excellent feel and locations and you have an ace level pitcher. Now, Scherzer's Stuff+ on his fastball is down to 101 in 2023 and his overall Stuff+ is just 100. That's barely above league average for a starter.
Scherzer just dominated a weakened Houston lineup with eight innings of one run ball in his last outing, but both the Yankees and Braves had their way with him in two of his last three starts. The underlying K-BB% peripherals have trended upward for Scherzer, but he's getting hit hard in the zone.
Philadelphia Phillies
Cristopher Sánchez doesn't have a particularly deep arsenal, but his sinker and slider combination is two above average pitches that work well in tandem off one another. Sánchez had a friendly matchup in his first two spot starts of the season against the Rockies (at home) in April and the Athletics last weekend. The Phillies won't ask for more than 4-5 innings from the lefty, who has struggled with command at times in his brief MLB stints in the last three seasons.
The question for the Phillies is where the last 12 outs were come from. Because they've played in a tie or with a lead in the second half of the last two games. the Phillies had to use their three top relievers on back to back days. Gregory Soto, José Alvarado and Craig Kimbrel all pitched in two straight games, even though none of them had previously pitched since Sunday. This game becomes more difficult to project because of the potential unavailability of those arms to fill the last 12-15 outs behind Sánchez.
The most likely option is Matt Strahm, who has posted elite strikeout rates and can throw multiple innings. Like Strahm, Sánchez has shown a real ability to generate strikeouts in his MLB stints too. He's near one strikeout per inning and he puts the Mets in their weaker offensive split against a left-handed pitcher. The Mets have just a 98 wRC+ when facing southpaws this season and they should see multiple lefties with Strahm expected to pitch two innings of relief behind Sánchez.
Mets vs. Phillies Betting Pick
The Phillies "bullpen games" have been much maligned as a whole this season by the fanbase, especially when Dylan Covey has been the bulk reliever or opener. Sánchez has better stuff and projections than Covey though and Strahm's fireman ability should give the Phillies an ability to throw different looks at this flailing Mets lineup.
Philadelphia is at home, has the better bullpen overall and its own lineup projects better against right-handed pitching. Even though Scherzer is still the better starter by about a run in the ERA projections, the other advantages for the Phillies make this a coin flip game. I'd bet the Phillies at +105 or better to win the second game of this series.
Pick: Phillies ML (+106) | Bet at +105 or better |
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