The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies will square off in Game 2 of the NLDS this Sunday, in the aftermath of Philadelphia's gut-punch of a loss in yesterday's series opener. First pitch is set for 4:08 p.m. ET on FS1.
Continue below for my Mets vs. Phillies Game 2 player props for Trea Turner, Luis Severino, and Mark Vientos on Sunday, October 6.
Sean Paul's Mets vs Phillies Player Props — Game 2
- Trea Turner to Steal a Base (+400, bet365)
- Luis Severino Under 15.5 Outs Recorded (-120, bet365)
- Mark Vientos Under 0.5 Hits (+165, bet365)
Trea Turner Player Prop: Bet on the Speedster to Steal a Base
Trea Turner's time in Philadelphia has featured some serious ups and downs. Although he's provided an occasional spark with the bat, it feels like the lows outweigh the highs. He's still a great player, but expectations change when a player inks a 300-million-dollar deal.
One thing about Turner's game that remains elite is his speed. He clocked in at 29.6 feet per second according to Statcast's sprint speed metric. He's blazing fast and can use his elite quickness to change a game.
The only difference is Turner stole just 19 bags during the regular season, down from his previous career low of 27 back in 2022. I'd be willing to bet the main reason Turner's stolen base total is down could be a byproduct of him playing just 121 games. Not only did he miss games, but perhaps he didn't want to risk further injury to his hamstring by stealing bases upon returning. In the playoffs, it should be full systems go.
I'm aiming for my one longshot prop of this piece on Turner to steal a base at +400. My angle here is hoping Turner pushes the envelope a bit after the Phillies offense looked lifeless in game one. If he's able to get on base, and then snag a base to reach scoring position, that's an advantage for Philly. Plus, he can definitely take a base from catcher Francisco Alvarez, who's about average in terms of catching hopeful base stealers.
Luis Severino Player Prop: Fade a Notorious Postseason Underperformer
In my Phillies/Mets SGP I touched on earlier, I expressed my concerns about Mets starter Luis Severino, who is a notorious underperformer in the postseason. The prop that caught my eye is Severino under 15.5 outs. If the game script falls in Philly's favor as I think it will, then it could prompt Carlos Mendoza to pull the cord quickly, a decision made easier with an off-day looming.
An interesting nugget I found is Severino went five innings or less in his last five outings where he allowed four or more runs. The leash is even shorter in the playoffs, so it might even take three runs before the Mets make a pitching change. If you think the Phillies will win, as I do, then fading Severino is a solid plan of attack.
Additionally, Severino faces occasional issues finding the strike zone. He posted a 2.97 BB/9 in his debut season and walked 2+ hitters in four of his past seven outings. The amazing thing about walks is not only that it creates a baserunner, but it makes for higher stress innings and a larger pitch count. Both of which bode well for Severino leaving the game before collecting his 16th out.
Mark Vientos Player Prop: Tough Matchup on the Mound
Most hitters and pitchers alike have an opponent who no matter what they do, it feels like they can't come out ahead of. Some would call that a player kryptonite, and Mark Vientos's kryptonite, Cristopher Sanchez takes the ball in game two.
Vientos has been a steadying presence atop the Mets lineup this year, connecting on 27 homers with a wRC+.
However, Sanchez has the perfect game plan to attack Vientos, as he's sent the Mets young slugger to the dugout via the strikeout in six of their seven AB's.
The prop I'm eyeing here is Vientos under 0.5 a hit at +165 odds. Virtually all 0.5 hits props are mega juiced to the over so there's occasional value on the under in matchups that favor the pitcher.
