On Wednesday, we'll see two teams — the New York Mets and Texas Rangers — who are trending in opposite directions.
The Mets are the hottest team in baseball, but the Rangers have dealt with the dreaded World Series hangover, entering play at 33-40 with five consecutive losses compared to the Mets, who own a seven-game winning streak.
I'll construct a Mets vs Rangers same game parlay for the series finale at Globe Life Field as a pair of veteran left-handers — Sean Manaeae and Andrew Heaney — take the mound.
Mets vs Rangers Parlay: Wednesday Picks
- JD Martinez 2+ Total Bases (+105)
- Mets ML (-110)
- Over 0.5 First Inning Runs (-115)
Parlay Odds: +450 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
JD Martinez 2+ Total Bases (+105)
For the first leg, I wanted to find a hitter who could tally a few total bases. Nobody made more sense than a veteran bat who's found the fountain of youth.
Father Time hasn't caught up to JD Martinez yet — he’s hitting .293 and an impressive .340 against left-handed pitching in his first year in Queens. Martinez even botched NL Player of the Week a week ago and is playing a monumental role in turning the Mets' season around.
Martinez currently boasts a 152 wRC+, his highest since he led the Red Sox to a World Series in 2018.
The 36-year-old went 10-for-24 en route to winning the Player of the Week award with a trio of homers and a .917 slugging percentage.
That bodes well for Martinez entering a very positive matchup.
Prior to falling short of 2+ total bases in the first two games against the Rangers, Martinez had 2+ total bases in four consecutive games. I think he'll get on track again.
Another piece that makes me love the Martinez prop is his track record against Andrew Heaney. Martinez took Heaney yard twice with four hits in 12 career ABs, contributing to a 1.472 OPS dating back to their first matchup in 2018.
Given Martinez's recent hot streak and impressive track record against Heaney, I love getting his 2+ total bases prop at +105. I expected it to be closer to -105 than +105, so I'm all over Martinez crushing Heaney to go over this prop.
Mets ML (-110)
The Mets' team meeting on May 29 must’ve done wonders because it’s been a totally different team in the past three weeks.
The Mets came out of nowhere to steal a win from the Rangers and secure a seventh consecutive victory.
Will it become an eighth? I think so.
From a matchup perspective, this game weighs in the Mets' favor. They've crushed left-handed pitching in the past month, whereas the Rangers look susceptible to southpaw arms.
Only two Rangers batters have wRC+'s above 100 — Corey Seager and Josh Smith. Marcus Semien is inching towards a 100 wRC+, but nobody else is near that marker. That really limits the potency of the Rangers' lineup.
In general, the Rangers' lineup is the most disappointing in baseball, clocking in at a 91 wRC+, which ranks 24th in baseball, sandwiched between the Tigers and Nationals.
I love the outlook of the Mets' lineup when Francisco Lindor is hitting, and he sure is hitting right now. He’s the tone-setter in the lead-off spot. Lindor is hitting .320 with a 175 wRC+ versus lefties in the past month, while Martinez and youngster Mark Vientos have also caught fire with wRC+'s above 140 against southpaws.
Vientos adds depth to the Mets' lineup. He had three hits and hit his sixth homer on Tuesday and will look for another strong performance to help the Mets secure a sweep.
Sean Maneaa needs to turn in a solid start for the Mets. The veteran lefty won't offer a ton of length, considering he's pitched through six full innings twice all year and hasn't extended past the sixth a single time.
He's a high-strikeout (9 K/9), high-walk (3.4 BB/9) pitcher. There will be some ebbs-and-flows in his starts depending on if he's getting swings and misses or if he's walking batters.
Still, the Mets probably couldn't ask for more than Manaea's provided so far, pitching to a 4.11 ERA in 65 innings with a 3.78 FIP. That indicates he should remain a formidable back of the rotation arm.
I'm looking to back the Mets' hot streak, which I think is more of a reality than their ugly start to the year. Meanwhile, the Rangers simply aren't very good.
If Semien and Garcia aren't hitting then this Rangers lineup is just mediocre. Plus, pitchers can work around Seager and live with the results of facing the other two heavy hitters.
Over 0.5 First Inning Runs (-115)
With a pair of fairly volatile pitchers on the bump in Manaea and Heaney, it wouldn't be a real shocker if one squandered a first-inning run.
In fact, the Mets are the second-best team in baseball at scoring first-inning runs in road games (40% of the time), according to teamrankings.com.
That number rivals the Yankees' for the best in baseball. The Rangers rank top-five in baseball in first-inning run percentage at 31%, but they also tend to score more first-inning road runs (39% on the road and 22% at home).
While neither team converted a first-inning run on Tuesday, one was scored on Monday, so the series is split at 1-1 for first-inning runs.
Of course, this is a home game for the Rangers, but with a pair of high-scoring games the previous two nights with two very good lineups, I think a first-inning run is very much in play for this series finale.
