The New York Mets beat the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday thanks to Francisco Lindor's two-run, ninth-inning single.
The two will face off in a rubber match on Thursday, and the Rockies have a chance to spoil the Mets' climb back into the NL East race.
It'll be a couple of southpaws on the mound today as David Peterson gets the ball for the Mets and Austin Gomber for the Rockies. Oddsmakers have made the Mets a -160 favorite on the money line, and the total is set at 11.
I cooked up a solid four-leg SGP Parlay that pays out close 13-to-1 odds.
Mets vs Rockies MLB Parlay Picks & SGP Odds
- Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 Total Bases (-165)
- Mark Vientos Over 1.5 Total Bases (-145)
- Alternate Total F5 Over 5.5 (-108)
- Colorado Rockies ML (+130)
Parlay Odds: +1277 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Mets vs Rockies SGP Pick #1: Francisco Lindor
Over 1.5 Total Bases (-165)
Last week, I targeted a Lindor prop because of his success against sinkerballers. Gomber has only thrown two sinkers all season, but many would argue his four-seam fastball has sinking-esque action.
Lindor clobbers the sinker, and what better way to kick off the SGP than with his total bases?
Gomber also features a knuckle-curve, while Lindor is batting .545 against that pitch this year.
Unless Gomber throws a heavy dose of sliders, I expect Lindor to take advantage of the great matchup.
Mets vs Rockies SGP Pick: Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 Total Bases (-165)
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Mets vs Rockies SGP Pick #2: Mark Vientos
Over 1.5 Total Bases (-145)
Yet another dream matchup for the Mets' right-handed power threat today in Coors.
Vientos holds a .470 xwOBA and an astonishing 57.7% hard-hit rate against four-seam fastballs. Vientos is also batting .381 against change-ups, a pitch that Gomber throws 22% of the time.
We have to pay some juice again, but if the Mets offense is humming early, it'll be because of Lindor and Vientos.
The Rockies pen is also a train wreck, as last night was one of many examples of such a case. Coors field is still a band-box, so it's not impossible to rule out Vientos getting five at-bats today, which would make the prop even more obtainable.
Mets vs Rockies SGP Pick: Mark Vientos Over 1.5 Total Bases (-145)
Mets vs Rockies SGP Pick #3: F5 Over 5.5 (-108)
I mentioned Lindor and Vientos above, but the entire Mets offense gets a dream matchup against Gomber today. Gomber has a 4.66 ERA and 4.83 xERA.
He only has 84 strikeouts in 116 innings, so clearly, he is a contact pitcher. That is asking for trouble pitching at Coors Field, and he only has a 42.2% ground-ball rate. The Mets lineup is full of righties who can mash, so I expect them to do their fair share of contribution.
Conversely, the Rockies draw a great matchup against David Peterson. Peterson has a respectable 3.47 ERA, but his 5.37 xERA indicates he is nothing less than a ticking time bomb.
Peterson only has 47 strikeouts in 59 innings, ranking below the 60th percentile of qualified pitchers in whiff and chase rate. He walks too many batters, and Coors Field is not the ballpark you want to lose control of.
Peterson's 55% ground-ball rate is his bread and butter, but he will get shelled if his control is not sharp. It's only a matter of time at this point.
I realize the Rockies are not a good baseball team, but their lineup still has respectable hitters. It's not outlandish to think the Rockies can score enough runs to keep them in the ballgame here.
Mets vs Rockies SGP Pick: F5 Over 5.5 (-108)
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Mets vs Rockies SGP Pick #4: Rockies ML (+130)
Here is where we spice things up in the SGP.
Something is off about this line, and I think oddsmakers are aware of the same factors I mentioned above.
Gomber is a disaster, so if he gets shelled for 7-8 runs, I do not expect the Rockies to win.
But if he does not fully implode, the Rockies' offense can hit Peterson.
The Rockies are batting .267 at home this year, which is no surprise given the climate and dynamics of Coors Field. Peterson is due to blow up, so I think if they can make him pay in the early going, that will allow them to steal the game late.
We won't see Jose Butto out of the pen, so the Mets might be thin for long relief if Peterson can not give them any length. That'll work to the Rockies' advantage, and I'm happy to take a stab with them at plus-money odds.
