Editor's note: This game has been postponed because of inclement weather.
Mets vs. Rockies Odds
| Mets Odds | -130 |
| Rockies Odds | +110 |
| Over/Under | 10 (+100 / -120) |
| Time | 8:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
There's been plenty written about how the altitude and thin air favors hitters at Coors Field. As a result, it's quite common to find a total in double digits.
However, Friday's series opener against the Mets opened with a total of just 9.5. We'll dig into this matchup and examine whether the bookmakers erred when they sent out their opening number.
Mets Finding Their Groove at the Plate
Carlos Carrasco will get the ball for the Mets as he makes his eighth start of the season. The 13-year veteran finally looks healthy again after an injury-riddled campaign limited him to just 12 starts in 2021.
It hasn't taken long for Carrasco to get going, as he's 3-1 with a 3.73 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. Moreover, his advanced numbers are also favorable, given his 3.54 xERA, 3.00 FIP and 3.46 xFIP.
However, this will be Carrasco's first-ever start at Coors Field, and I'm not sure any pitcher can fully prepare for the experience of pitching at a mile-high altitude.
For many years, Carrasco was highly regarded as a strikeout pitcher. He's had five seasons in which he finished with a K/9 ratio in double-digits. Yet, his strikeouts are down this season, as he's fanning 7.68 batters per nine innings.
Thus, to understand how Carrasco has still maintained his dominance, you have to examine the impact of his changeup. Opposing batters are hitting just .182 against the changeup with .219 xBA. It has a putaway rate of 29.6%, and its vertical movement (5.7 inches) is the highest of Carrasco's career since Baseball Savant began its tracking back in 2016.
However, according to FanGraphs, the Rockies are scoring 4.1 runs above average when facing a changeup.
It'll be interesting to see how Carrasco fares at Coors Field because he hasn't been a ground-ball pitcher of late. Although he has a career 1.51 GB/FB ratio, he's failed to post even a 1.20 GB/FB in three of his past four seasons.
How Will Rockies Fare at Home?
The Rockies will be back in their home ballpark, where they've enjoyed more success than being on the road. While it's normal to expect teams to perform better inside their park, Colorado's home/away splits can be pretty extreme.
Colorado is 13-9 at Coors Field compared to 5-10 when on the road. A deeper dive reveals that the Rockies have a .286/.353/.458 split at home vs. .229/.290/.345 on the road.
If Rockies' hitters can benefit from Colorado's thin air and lower atmospheric pressure, visiting teams can also take advantage. As a result, the Rockies generally target ground-ball pitchers who can pitch down in the strike zone.
Friday's starter, Germán Márquez, certainly fits that profile for the Rockies. He has a career 1.71 GB/FB ratio, and this season, that number's up to 1.94.
Márquez's pitch arsenal includes a slider with a 35.3% whiff rate. He throws the pitch 34% of the time and also mixes in a curveball (14.6%) and a sinker (11.7%) in addition to a changeup (3.9%) to go along with his four-seamer (35.9%).
Unfortunately for the Rockies, he's struggled this season, as evidenced by a 6.16 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP. While his advanced numbers (4.91 xERA/4.76 FIP/ 3.56 xFIP) point to some positive regression, he might have to wait until the Mets leave town.
On Thursday, the Mets ended their series with the Cardinals in style as slugger Pete Alonso belted a 447-foot walk-off shot in the bottom of the 10th inning.
More walk-offs!
Pete Alonso wins it for the Mets in the 10th!
(Via @SNYtv)pic.twitter.com/QHq3CgwvWb
— Stadium (@Stadium) May 19, 2022
The Mets scored 18 runs in their past two games, and you've got to think they'll be licking their chops to get some hacks in at Coors Field. After all, Colorado is where Alonso won his second Home Run Derby just a year ago.
Márquez will need to be mindful of Alonso, given that his 1.66 HR/9 ratio is the highest of his career. If he struggles to keep the ball down, he could be left watching the Mets leisurely jog around the basepaths.
Mets-Rockies Pick
In my opening, I was somewhat suspicious about this game opening with a total of just 9.5. That number didn't last very long, as bettors quickly pushed it up to 10.
However, I still think the over is worth a look because I have concerns about both pitchers in this spot. Carrasco will have his first-ever appearance at Coors Field, and Márquez continues to allow home runs at an alarming rate.
There's also a trend that's captured my attention for this matchup. In the past eight games the Mets played the Rockies in Colorado and the total opened at 9.5, the over is a perfect 8-0.
I always like to shop for alternate totals if the juice is within reason, and at BetMGM, you can play over 9.5 at -125 odds.
Pick: Alternate Over 9.5 (-125)
