Mets vs. Tigers Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -156 | 8.5 -114 / -106 | -1.5 +105 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+132 | 8.5 -114 / -106 | +1.5 -126 |
After a six-game homestand, the New York Mets head to Detroit to take on the Tigers in a three-game series starting on Tuesday.
Today's starting pitching matchup pits Joey Lucchesi for the Mets against Michael Lorenzen for the Tigers. There honestly isn't all that much to this game besides the betting cap, so let's dive right into it!
New York Mets
The Mets haven't won a series since mid-April, having split with the Giants, then losing both subsequent series to the Nationals and Braves most recently.
This, despite a relatively healthy roster, isn't a great sign for a team that came into the season with high hopes. The offense has not clicked quite to the level they would have hoped, and both the starting and relief pitching have performed under par through April.
Lucchesi aspires to turn that around, and through two starts he has done just that — at least on the surface. The 29-year-old has allowed just three earned runs over 12 1/3 innings against the Giants and the Nationals. He has 12 strikeouts to just four walks, and his 3.47 FIP and 2.19 ERA are both very solid.
However this is the tiniest of samples, and it appears that Lucchesi is lucky to have such a sparkling ERA. For one, his left on base rate of 86.2% is unsustainable. Moreover, his xERA of 5.62 suggests that he is allowing hard contact and getting lucky that those balls are finding Mets gloves.
If Lucchesi is due for more batters to reach base and more runners to score once they get on base, then it's a recipe for runs. Add in the fact that the Mets bullpen is almost entirely spent after a high-scoring double-header on Monday, and Detroit has a path to scoring in bunches on Tuesday.
On the offensive side of things, the Mets will be in their slightly better split on Tuesday. New York reports a 109 wRC+ versus right-handed pitchers compared to 100 wRC+ versus lefties. This is a trend dating back to last season as well.
Brett Baty has been one positive element of the past few weeks: The star prospect has debuted and been every bit the future star he is expected to be, with a 154 wRC+ during his first 12 games.
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers have not been good by any stretch of the imagination this season. Rather, they've been just about what was expected of them.
However, they are in their better split for the second straight season, as their wRC+ of 94 against lefties is much better than their paltry wRC+ of 74 against righties.
Jake Rogers is a player to watch in particular, as he has shown some legitimate pop against lefties, but the books still have him as a longshot to homer on Tuesday (+650 at DraftKings).
On the mound, Michael Lorenzen paints the opposite picture as Lucchesi. His 7.07 ERA is heinous, but his 5.11 xERA is at least palatable. His xFIP 4.13 is the best of the bunch.
Lorenzen has mostly been a victim of the long ball, allowing nearly two homers per nine innings. He also is on the other end of the spectrum from Lucceshi in terms of left on base rate, which is mostly a luck-based stat.
He is not a good pitcher, but he is not as bad as the surface level statistics this season make it seem.
Mets vs. Tigers Betting Pick
This is a little bit of a funky game. The over seems to be the obvious play for two teams in their superior batting split against two very mediocre pitchers, especially when you add in an exhausted Mets bullpen and a Tigers bullpen that ranks in the bottom five in MLB by most metrics.
However, it's going to be very cold at Comerica Park tonight. In fact, per Ballpark Pal, the run environment is the lowest on the whole slate for Tuesday.
It also might seem like a good zag to fade the lucky Lucchesi and bet the Tigers moneyline, but the number is not quite as long as one would imagine given the delta between the two teams in terms of actual talent.
Overall, I ended up going with both the over 8.5 and the Tigers moneyline, but both are leans — not full plays.
Leans: Over 8.5 runs · Detroit moneyline
| Over 8.5 |
| Detroit Moneyline |
