Mets vs. Yankees Odds
| Mets Odds | -155 |
| Yankees Odds | +135 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 (-105 / -115) |
| Time | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
After the Mets stunned the Yankees with two wins in Queens to begin this year's four-game set between the two teams, the Subway Series will return to Yankee Stadium on Monday night with the home team out for revenge.
With Max Scherzer on the bump for the visitors, is there any chance here for the Bombers? Let's dig into this one.
Scherzer As Advertised For Mets
Yes, Scherzer has really been that good. You likely know that by now. But to put it in context, he's pitched to a 2.15 ERA in 17 starts, which at age 38, would be the best of his career. As if that's not impressive enough, Scherzer is still in the top 10% of the league in strikeout rate at 31.4% and in the top 10% in expected batting average at .197.
If Scherzer's been vulnerable anywhere, it's with the loud contact. He's allowing just 0.7 homers per nine which is actually slightly better than his career average, but a 9.1% barrel rate is the highest he's had tracked by Statcast.
Obviously, we're nitpicking, but it has popped up a few times this season. Scherzer did struggle last time out against the Braves, allowing two runs on three hits and three walks over 6 1/3 before two runners he left to Adam Ottavino scored on a home run to charge him with four runs.
He also shut out the Yankees when he saw them a month ago over seven innings.
As for the bats, the Mets are incredibly hard to read right now. They're still top 10 in wRC+ and haven't exactly hit a ton of homers with 14 in the last two weeks, but their strikeout rate is at 21.9% — a higher mark than they're used to. They've seemingly traded a little contact for power, but not all that much.
Can Yankees Break Out Of Funk?
It seems everyone in the world knows what's going on with the Yankees right now, so I'll save you the season recap.
There was certainly a different feel to Sunday's 4-2 win over the Blue Jays, however, seeing as the Yankees were able to manufacture a couple of early runs off of an All-Star in Alek Manoah before surviving a comeback from the Jays and winning on an Andrew Benintendi two-run homer.
The win was rather significant considering it came in spite of Aaron Judge, who went 0-for-3 with two strikeouts.
While it's unfair to put all the blame on Judge for the Yankees' recent struggles, especially considering he wasn't the guy getting 100% of the credit when they had the best record in baseball, it's definitely worth mentioning that he's in a huge funk at the moment.
Judge has now gone nine games without a homer — his longest drought of the season — and he's hit just .133 over that time. Sure, he has a 32.4% strikeout rate during that span, but he's also hitting an inordinate amount of ground balls.
Something's very off, and that's definitely of note considering this guy is the favorite to win AL MVP and has driven this offense all year.
As for the Yankees' outlook on the hill, Domingo German has been surprisingly great since the team traded away Jordan Montgomery and installed him as their back-end starter. He gave up five runs in Houston in his first start of the season, but that's quite excusable; it's hard to find a harder spot to make your season debut.
In the five starts following, German has posted a 3.20 ERA. He's done a great job of pitching to contact in those starts, and should be put to the ultimate test here.
Mets-Yankees Pick
First off, if you're thinking of locking in a bet on this game in the morning or afternoon, you should know that rain is threatening to push this game to Tuesday. With that said, if you're looking for value here, it's probably on the under.
German's performances have been very encouraging, and while he gave up homers in his first three starts of the season, he 's yet to give one up in the three that followed. The right-hander is finding his groove and I think this Mets offense is just a bit different than the one we fell in love with months ago. There are more strikeouts, but they haven't necessarily come along with more power. It's utterly confusing, but I do think the Yankees can limit the damage here.
On the other hand, you just can't expect a ton of runs out of this Yankees lineup as long as Judge is slumping and Giancarlo Stanton and Matt Carpenter are sidelined. That's especially true with Scherzer on the bump, who spun a shutout against the Yankees in July.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-115)
