Mets vs Yankees Odds | Subway Series Finale Moneyline Prediction
| New York Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+105 | 8.5 -108o / -112u | +1.5 -160 |
| New York Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-125 | 8.5 -108o / -112u | -1.5 +132 |
After a wild opening game of the Subway Series which saw Gerrit Cole falter early, the New YorkYankees will look to even the score on Wednesday night with Luis Gil heading to the mound against Sean Manaea.
The Yankees righty ran into trouble last time out at home against the Orioles but will be looking to draw on his excellent season for a bounce-back performance against one of the hottest lineups in the game, while Manaea has finally found some success over the last two weeks after a rocky start to June.
Let's break down how this one should shake out in our Yankees vs Mets betting preview, which includes my Subway Series finale moneyline prediction.
New York Mets
Let's start by talking a bit about Manaea.
The lefty has pieced together back-to-back quality outings against the Padres and Rangers in which he allowed just four runs on six hits over 12 2/3 innings with 13 strikeouts. Walks continue to be a massive issue for him, but his Expected Batting Average and Expected Slugging marks are back down almost at the league average while the punchouts continue to trend up to the levels we saw last season.
Manaea continues to get most of his outs in the air, though his ground-ball rate had been slowly creeping up prior to plummeting against the Rangers. You'd think in a somewhat pitcher-friendly home park that would lead to better results, yet he owns a 4.95 ERA in eight starts at Citi Field versus a 3.27 ERA on the road. He's also surrendered four home runs this month after allowing just three heading into June.
The Mets have remained solid at the plate with the second-best wRC+ in the game over the past two weeks, and while they've been striking out more and walking less in the last seven days specifically, their power numbers have grown even stronger with a .285 ISO in that small window.
This is also a team that ranks sixth in OPS to fly-ball arms like Gil, with their .691 OPS against ground-ballers paling in comparison, though they've been weaker against "power" arms, hitting "finesse" arms as classified by Baseball-Reference much better.
New York Yankees
The Yankees are waffling a bit at the plate as the losses begin to pile up, ranking 15th in wRC+ over the past week with some issues getting the ball out of the park and hitting for extra bases. They continue to own an expert walk rate, pushing it up over 13.4% during this time, with their strikeout rate still ranking among the best in baseball.
Without Giancarlo Stanton, they're missing one of their best weapons in the power department and replacing him with a combination of Jahmai Jones and Trent Grisham — something no team would prefer to do.
Fortunately, the Yankees will throw Gil, who should make the task at hand a bit easier. He did suffer his worst outing of the year last week, allowing seven runs on eight hits over just 1 1/3 frames with one strikeout and two walks against Baltimore, but for the season, he's been their most reliable arm.
Gil, as we alluded to, has taken an already high fly-ball rate and pushed it further above the league average as the months have gone on, nearly touching 30% in May before taking it to 32.1% in June. His xSLG has rested around .350 and his xBA around .210 as a result, which are far higher than the numbers he opened the season with — but still fantastic marks.
His whiff and chase rates remain strong, and aside from his start last week, he's still racking up strikeouts and pitching to fewer walks. It would seem there's nothing amiss here despite the one bad outing.
Mets vs. Yankees
Betting Pick & Prediction
The ball was carrying a bit more than normal on Tuesday night, but with lower temperatures on Wednesday and more humidity, I'd expect Citi Field to play a lot closer to what we've seen over the past three years — which is to say it's one of the 10 worst stadiums in the league for home runs.
With that, Gil's affinity for fly balls shouldn't pose too much of an issue here — even against the powerful Mets. He's done an excellent job of turning those batted balls into expected outs, and with fewer walks and persistent strikeouts he should profile well here against a Mets team lacking discipline of late.
On the other side, while the Yankees may be in a miniature slump and experiencing a slight power outage, Manaea has been incredibly friendly on contact and shouldn't be flashing the strikeout ability we've seen in the past two weeks against a disciplined Yankees team. I expect his longstanding issues with limiting walks to bite him here against a team which is, at the very least, taking a ton of walks around some flatter numbers on contact.
With the Mets bullpen taxing itself trying to close out Tuesday's game, and the Yankees preserving four of their top five arms, a shaky outing for Manaea could spell disaster for the Mets. I think this is a spot where the Yankees pull one back.
Pick: Yankees ML (-125)
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