Jacob deGrom will start his first big league game of the season on Tuesday against the Nationals, the Mets announced.
deGrom has been out for over a year amid a litany of injuries. When he last pitched on July 7, 2021, the Mets were in first place and had roughly -250 consensus odds to win the National League East.
However, the Mets finished the season 77-85 and became the team that stayed in first place the longest without winning its division. Their starters' ERA were abysmal in the interim.
The impact — from arguably the best pitcher in baseball — is evident in how drastically Mets lines have changed since deGrom's return became official.
The Mets had been a consensus +800 to win the World Series at most major American sportsbooks prior to the news of deGrom's official return.
Now, they're +600 at DraftKings and +700 at FanDuel.
To win the pennant? The Mets moved from +350 to +300 at FanDuel, remaining as second-best favorites behind the Dodgers, who are +145 in that marketplace.
At DraftKings, the Mets' odds to win the pennant are +280, down from +325 a day prior.
And for the division crown, the Mets are now -310 favorites at DraftKings to win their first title since 2015. They're a staggering -330 at FanDuel to do the same. The team had been hovering around the -200s prior to the news.
Those odds give the Mets roughly a 75-to-76% chance to win the division, according to the implied odds. FiveThirtyEight gives New York a 75% chance.
Odds at +600 to win the World Series mean implied odds of 14%. Odds at +700 mean a 12.5% chance. For reference, 538 gives the Mets about a 12% chance to win it all.
