The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Miami Marlins on Wednesday at PNC Park. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35 p.m. ET on MLB.TV.
Marlins-Pirates odds for Wednesday have the Pirates as -190 moneyline favorites and the Marlins as +155 underdogs. The over/under is set at 8.5 (-115o / -105u). Jonathan Bermudez takes the mound for Miami, while Pittsburgh hands the ball to Bailey Falter.
Find my Marlins vs. Pirates prediction and pick for Wednesday, plus the latest MLB odds for September 11, below.
Marlins vs Pirates Prediction
- Marlins-Pirates pick: Over 8.5 (-115 | Play to -120)
My Marlins-Pirates best bet is on the over, where I see value at -115. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Marlins vs Pirates Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+154 | 8.5 -115/-105 | +1.5 -135 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-187 | 8.5 -115/-105 | -1.5 +112 |
Marlins vs Pirates Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Jonathan Bermudez (MIA) | Stat | LHP Bailey Falter (PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | W-L | 7-7 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.5 |
| 5.79 / 4.14 | ERA /xERA | 4.45 / 5.10 |
| 4.89 / 4.38 | FIP / xFIP | 4.29 / 4.68 |
| 1.93 | WHIP | 1.31 |
| 14.3% | K-BB% | 9.5% |
| 37.5% | GB% | 36.2% |
| 70 | Stuff+ | 90 |
| 88 | Location+ | 100 |
Tony Sartori's Marlins vs Pirates Preview
Miami Marlins Betting Preview: Fade This Pitching Staff
Bermudez will serve as the opener for a projected bullpen day. With that said, there should be little optimism for this pitching staff.
Let's start with Bermudez, who possesses a 5.79 ERA and a 1.93 WHIP through two appearances this season. This is a guy who was DFA'd at one point this season and went unclaimed.
His underlying metrics are equally poor as Bermudez ranks in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate and barrel rate. Following the southpaw is a bullpen that ranks 22nd in ERA.
The good news for this pitching staff is that they should receive some solid run support against Falter, a pitcher whom this current lineup boasts a .258 xBA and a .540 xSLG against through 14 combined career plate appearances.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview: Tough Spot for Falter
That success at the dish is likely to continue against Falter. The southpaw carries a 4.45 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP across 24 starts.
His analytics are even worse as Falter sports a 5.10 xERA and ranks in the bottom-third of the league in xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. The lefty has allowed four or more earned runs in three of his past five starts and has posted a troubling 6.85 ERA over that stretch.
Falter also won't get bailed out by Pittsburgh's bullpen, which ranks in the bottom six of the league in both ERA and xFIP.
Marlins vs Pirates Prediction, Betting Analysis
This total sits at 8.5 with a modest -115 price tag on the over because neither lineup is particularly threatening. With that said, I don't trust either of the pitching staffs.
Bermudez and Falter both rank in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate and barrel rate. Meanwhile, both bullpens rank in the bottom half of the league in ERA.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-115 at FanDuel | Play to -120)
Moneyline
I'm going to pass on the moneyline. I have no interest in laying -190 with Pittsburgh and also have no interest in backing Miami.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm also going to pass on the run line. I like the Marlins at +1.5, but not with the amount of juice I'd have to lay.
Over/Under
I'm betting Over 8.5 in this game.
Marlins vs Pirates Betting Trends
Marlins Betting Trends
- Marlins are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
- Marlins are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Marlins are 35-34 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Marlins' last 5 games
Pirates Betting Trends
- Pirates are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Pirates are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Pirates' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 37 of Pirates' 73 last games at home
Marlins vs Pirates Weather
