The Seattle Mariners (14-11) host the Miami Marlins (11-13) on Friday, April 25. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on ROOT Sports NW and FanDuel Sports Florida.
Friday night's starting pitching matchup features Cal Quantrill for the Marlins and Logan Gilbert for the Mariners. Quantrill is central to my Marlins vs Mariners prediction — find out how you should bet on the right-hander below.
My Marlins vs Mariners Prediction
- Marlins vs Mariners pick:Cal Quantrill Under 3.5 Strikeouts
My Marlins vs Mariners best bet is Cal Quantrill to log fewer than 3.5 strikeouts. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Marlins vs Mariners Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -125 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +227 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -277 |
Marlins vs Mariners Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Cal Quantrill (SEA) | Stat | RHP Logan Gilbert (SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | W-L | 1-1 |
| -0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 8.31 / 7.01 | ERA /xERA | 2.63 / 2.47 |
| 5.33 / 5.31 | FIP / xFIP | 2.21 / 1.62 |
| 2.08 | WHIP | 0.88 |
| -1.2% | K-BB% | 32.4% |
| 47.6% | GB% | 50% |
| 89 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 92 | Location+ | 117 |
Charlie Wright’s Marlins vs Mariners Preview
Marlins-Mariners Prop Pick: Fade Quantrill?
Marlins right-hander Cal Quantrill has been one of the worst pitchers in the league this season.
His 8.31 ERA is supported by a 7.01 xERA. Quantrill's xFIP and SIERA are also both well above 5.00.
Most importantly for this bet, Quantrill has an egregious 8:9 K:BB ratio. He ranks in the first percentile with a 9.6% K%.
Quantrill was also first percentile in K% in 2023 at 13.1%; he posted a 16.5% mark last season. His swinging-strike rate is 8.8% for his career, and it's down to an ugly 7.8% in 2025.
The big thing here is Seattle's offense at home.
T-Mobile Park is an extremely tough place to hit, especially against righties. The Mariners led the league in strikeout rate vs. RHP at 27.3%. That mark jumped to 28.7% at home.
However, Seattle is off to a better start in the strikeout department this season. The M's are at a 21.4% K% vs. RHP so far, which ranks 18th. It's only 21.6% at home.
Tonight's projected lineup has a 20.9% K% across 530 plate appearances against righties this season.
Marlins vs Mariners Prediction, Betting Analysis
The venue is really the only reason we're getting under 3.5 strikeouts at plus money here.
I'm trusting the improvements the Mariners have shown so far at home.
Quantrill will need to reach 50% of his 2025 strikeout total to hit this over. I'll roll the dice on that, especially at this price.
Pick: Cal Quantrill Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110; bet365)
Marlins vs Mariners Betting Trends
