The Seattle Mariners host the Miami Marlins on Saturday, April 26, 2025. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FDSFL.
Find my MLB betting preview and Marlins vs Mariners prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
My Marlins vs Mariners Prediction
- Marlins vs Mariners picks: Over 7.5 (-110) | Play to -125
My Marlins vs Mariners best bet is on the over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Marlins vs Mariners Odds, Prediction, Best Bet
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +195 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -235 |
Marlins vs Mariners Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Connor Gillispie (MIA) | Stat | RHP Luis M. Castillo (SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | W-L | 2-2 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 6.75/4.17 | ERA /xERA | 4.44/4.37 |
| 4.57/4.40 | FIP / xFIP | 4.24/4.53 |
| 1.42 | WHIP | 1.59 |
| 12% | K-BB% | 1.92% |
| 39.7% | GB% | 47.1% |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 97 | Location+ | 104 |
Kenny Ducey's Marlins vs Mariners Preview
Miami Marlins Betting Preview: Fade Gillispie
It could just be me, but it doesn't feel like I should be discussing any baseball player other than Agustin Ramirez. It's hard to fit him into a section where we handicap the Marlins' chances and emphasize the pitching matchup, but I have to use this as an excuse to say that this guy absolutely rules. As a longtime follower of Ramirez in the Yankees' system, I have yet to forget where I was when I learned they'd traded him. He's every bit this good, and a good example of how we often times overthink every ballplayer. He crushed the ball, he hit for power, he rarely struck out, but his valuation was capped, for some reason, because folks would have liked him to hit more ground balls.
Well, Ramirez is proving thus far that he can hit the ball on a line, or on the ground, and still find himself on second base. It doesn't really matter to me if he's not lifting every pitch because he's hammering the ball. Anyway, yeah, I cannot wait to see this guy hit each and every day, and this team has some legitimate juice now.
It's a good thing, because the man who will pitch this one isn't very good. Connor Gillispie's only real talent is limiting walks, but it's not much of a talent when he's throwing hittable strikes all the time. He's up at a .254 xBA thus far, which isn't all that bad, but the .459 Expected Slugging very much is. On top of that, he's allowing a ton of fly balls, which is just what this Mariners offense will want to see here.
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview: Not the Same Castillo
It's been a strange season for Luis Castillo, but it's hard to say the warning signs haven't been there. His strikeout rate fell three points to a meek 24.3% last season, and now it's down to 19%, which has emphasized the contact he's allowing.
He's never been brilliant when it comes to suppressing power, but this season his 11.8% barrel rate exceeds anything we've seen in the past. He's giving up a .263 Expected Batting Average with a ton more ground balls. On top of his many issues with the ball coming back into play, his walk rate has also jumped to 9.9%.
So, even if Castillo starts walking fewer hitters, it's not like there's one lone hole in his game. He's likely not going to be the strikeout machine he was in his mid-20s, and it's also not as if he's just falling victim to a few extra-base hits here and there. Batters are reaching base with consistency.
Marlins vs Mariners Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Marlins have been right there in the middle of the league when it comes to offensive production, and their only real issues have come in their middling plate discipline numbers.
They've hit the ball well — sitting up near the top of the league with a .260 average and an acceptable .132 Isolated Power — and they're up against a declining Castillo, who has had issues adjusting to his strikeout stuff failing to play up like it used to.
On the other side of the coin, Gillispie should be a sitting duck against a Seattle offense that is once again predicated on power — only this time it's delivering with a .162 ISO and third-best 118 wRC+.
When it's all said and done, I think two capable offenses will exploit two shaky starters — even in a pitcher's park.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-110)
Moneyline
The sharp money is hitting the Mariners here, though some of our experts are on the Marlins. Just 17% of the bets and 20% of the money are on Miami.
Spread
The Marlins have covered in four of their last five games and are now 13-10 to the spread as the underdog.
Over/Under
The sharp money is on the Under here, a bet that's cashed in seven of the last 10 games each team has played. It's 15-8 when the Marlins are underdogs, but just 5-7-2 with Seattle at home. That said, I like the over in this one.
