NL Central foes, the Milwaukee Brewers (77-56) and Cincinnati Reds (64-70), are set for a Friday doubleheader at Great American Ball Park. First pitch for Game 1 is scheduled for 12:40 p.m. ET; the game can be seen on MLB Network (for out-of-market viewers) and Bally Sports Wisconsin or Ohio.
Nick Martinez, who is set to get the start for the opening game, has been spectacular as of late. The 34-year-old veteran has not thrown deep into games, but when he has been on the hill, he has limited hard contact and free passes. Reds top prospect Rhett Lowder will make his Major League debut in the second game.
As for the Brewers, they will be throwing Colin Rea — and he is due for some negative regression. He hasn't walked many hitters, but he doesn't induce many grounders or strike out hitters. He's also prone to giving up hard contact.
Since the Reds have the better starter and a similar offense, they could have the edge in this one outright. Read further for my Brewers vs Reds prediction for the first game of this doubleheader on Friday, August 30.
Brewers vs Reds Prediction
- Brewers vs Reds pick: Reds (+114)
My Brewers-Reds pick is on the moneyline, where I see value at a line of +110. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Brewers vs. Reds Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 9.5 -105o / -115u | -134 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 9.5 -105o / -115u | +114 |
Brewers vs Reds Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Colin Rea (MIL) | Stat | RHP Nick Martinez (CIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 12-4 | W-L | 6-6 |
| 1.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.2 |
| 3.61 / 4.88 | ERA / xERA | 3.62 / 3.27 |
| 4.50 / 4.35 | FIP / xFIP | 3.44 / 4.03 |
| 1.15 | WHIP | 1.11 |
| 19.2% | K-BB% | 16.4% |
| 39.5% | GB% | 37.3% |
| 84 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 102 | Location+ | 109 |
Brewers vs Reds Preview
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview: Dark Days Ahead for Rea
Rea has a 3.61 ERA and 4.88 xERA. The chickens are just waiting to come home to roost. His Hard-Hit Rate ranks in the 24th percentile with an Average Exit Velocity above 90 MPH. His ground-ball rate is well below average with a strikeout rate of 19.2%, as well. Sure, he ranks in the 80th percentile in walk rate, but he has already been knocked for four-plus runs in two of four outings in August. Another could be in this matchup.
The Brew Crew have a 107 wRC+, 9.9% walk rate and 23.9% strikeout rate in the last month against righties. They have six bats above a .315 xwOBA — one of which is Andruw Monasterio — who only has eight plate appearances against righties. They have been solid, but since Martinez has been sharp and Lowder would be the alternative, the Brewers could be quiet the first few innings.
The Milwaukee bullpen has been great in the last month with a 3.64 xFIP. They are walking just over 7% of batters while striking out more than 25%. Four arms are below a 4.00 xFIP, but if Rea yields hard contact to the Reds consistently, the Brewers will need to find pitches from the middle relievers, who could be questionably reliable.
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview: Martinez is Red Hot
Martinez owns a 3.62 ERA and 3.27 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is under 87 MPH with a Hard-Hit Rate in the 94th percentile. He strikes out a similar number of hitters as Rea, but he walks only 3% of them. Sure, he may not throw as deep, but he could throw five in a doubleheader. Lowder has a 3.64 ERA in 22 games at the minor league level and has flown through the system, so he would not be a shabby option, either.
The Reds have a 97 wRC+, 7.2% walk rate, and 23.1% strikeout rate off of right-handers in the last month. They have six batters, though, above a .315 xwOBA, so they are comparable to the Milwaukee lineup while facing a weaker starter.
In relief, Cincy hasn't been too weak. This has been a sore spot for them, at times, this year. They have a collective 4.07 xFIP, 7.1% walk rate, and 23.2% strikeout rate in the last month. They have six arms under that 4.00 xFIP mark, so if Martinez or Lowder does not throw more than four or five innings, they have the depth needed to finish off the game successfully.
Brewers vs Reds Prediction, Betting Analysis
Look for the Reds to hammer Rea early. He should not be very strong down the stretch, so Cincy could be catching him at the right time. The Reds have a comparable lineup and bullpen to take down Milwaukee at home. Bet the Reds in game one to win from +110 to -130. They should be favored against Rea. Take them to -120 if Lowder is the probable starter.
Pick: Cincinnati Reds +110 to -130 via FanDuel
Moneyline
+110 (estimated, Yes)
Run Line (Spread)
+1.5 (Pass)
Over/Under
8 (Pass)
Brewers vs Reds Betting Trends
- 74% of the bets and 99% of the money are on the Brewers on the moneyline.
- 94% of the bets and 93% of the money are on the over.
- 90% of the bets and 87% of the money are on the Brewers to cover the run line.
Brewers Trends
- Brewers are 3-2 in their past five games
- Brewers are 4-1 in their past five games against the spread
- Brewers are 36-32 in road games against the spread
Reds Trends
- Reds are 1-4 in their past five games
- Reds are 1-3-1 in their past five games against the spread
- Reds are 31-35 in home games against the spread
