Grab your coffee and get ready for this early NL Central battle between the Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds from Great American Ball Park!
Editor's Note: This story was published before Brandon Williamson was named the Sunday starter for the Reds.
Brewers vs Reds Prediction
- Brewers vs Reds picks: Brewers Moneyline (-130 | Play to -160)
My Brewers vs Reds prediction is on the Brewers moneyline, where I see value at a -130 price. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Brewers vs Reds Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-130 | 9.5 +102o / -124u | -1.5 +126 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+110 | 9.5 +102o / -124u | +1.5 -152 |
Brewers vs Reds Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Tobias Myers (MIL) | Stat | LHP Brandon Williamson (CIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-5 | W-L | (season debut) |
| 1.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | n/a |
| 2.99/4.24 | ERA /xERA | n/a |
| 4.15/4.14 | FIP / xFIP | n/a |
| 1.13 | WHIP | n/a |
| 15% | K-BB% | n/a |
| 38.1% | GB% | n/a |
| 90 | Stuff+ | n/a |
| 101 | Location+ | n/a |
Brewers vs Reds Preview
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview: Offense is Rolling
Virtually every division race in baseball is alive in September… except for one. That's the NL Central, where the Brewers lead the second-place Cardinals by ten games with fewer than 30 to play. Sure, miracles can happen, but they are called miracles for a reason — because they probably won't happen. So, Milwaukee will look to keep it's strong play going, even though it won't make or break their season.
Tobias Myers bounced around four organizations in his career prior to 2024, but has found a lasting home in Milwaukee. The 26-year-old rookie owns a 2.99 ERA over 96 innings. However, we could see some regression since his xERA sits at 4.23 and his FIP is 4.15.
Myers features a four-pitch mix with a low- to mid-90s fastball that generates a ton of fly balls. Myers' dependency on fly balls can lead to problems in high home run-hitting environments. He allows over 1.2 HR/9. That's the clear stain on Myers's otherwise strong-looking resume.
The Brewers' offense has remained elite, even without Christian Yelich. With one engine gone, another emerged in rookie phenom Jackson Chourio. The Brewers ranked eighth in MLB with a 113 wRC+ last month, in large part thanks to Chourio's dynamic bat-to-ball prowess.
My favorite part about the Brewers offensive approach in August? They've been super patient with an elite 10.9% BB rate, which is second best in MLB behind the Yankees.
Milwaukee's high-functioning offense must be salivating at the though of facing Cincinnati's pitching staff.
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview: Struggles All Around
The Reds can officially chalk the 2024 season as yet another disappointing chapter in a lengthy stretch of rough seasons. They enter with a 64-73 record and have looked utterly outmatched by the NL Central leaders from Milwaukee.
The Reds have yet to announce a pitcher at the time of this writing, but I can't see any of the options being enough to make me comfortable backing the Reds. Whoever draws the start likely needs to provide a decent amount of length as the Reds went with a bullpen game on Saturday.
Regardless of who starts, we'll see a steady diet of the Reds' disastrous bullpen, which posted a 5.35 ERA in August (25th in MLB). They don't have a single trustworthy arm, not even at the back of the bullpen. Justin Wilson is Cincinnati's lone reliever with a FIP below 4.00 (with more than four innings pitched) in August. Their "closer" — Alexis Diaz — is only closing the door on the Reds' chances of winning with his 7.00 ERA and 7.84 FIP over nine innings last month.
The offense has also struggled. August proved to be a tough month as the Reds had a shaky 96 wRC+ with a very poor 24.1% K rate. While the Reds' struggles continue, it's been the opposite for catcher Tyler Stephenson, whose 176 wRC+ and seven homers generated the bulk of the Reds's occasional offensive success.
Brewers vs Reds Prediction, Betting Analysis
I have a lot of faith in the Brewers securing the win as just about every advantage lies in Milwaukee's favor.
Another reason to back the Brewers is their strong 39-31 record in road games, compared to the Reds 32-38 mark at home. It's nice to have a hitter-friendly park for the home team's hitters, but if that team can't pitch, there's a real problem.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline
I'm all in on the Brewers moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
Three of Milwaukee's past four wins have come by two or more runs. I see some value in backing the Brewers at -1.5, especially with the Reds' lack of reliable pitching options.
Over/Under
I'll pass on the total. Myers could cruise and shorten the game with his ability to generate quick outs, but the Reds' pitching staff is so poor that I could see this total landing in either direction.
Brewers vs Reds Betting Trends
Brewers Betting Trends
- Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 games
- Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Brewers are 37-33in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Brewers' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 36 of Blue Jays' 69 last road games o
Reds Betting Trends
- Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 games
- Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Red Sox are 32-38 in their home games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Reds' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 32 of Reds' 70 last games at home
Brewers-Reds Weather Forecast
