Aaron Civale and the Milwaukee Brewers will be in Pittsburgh Thursday. The Brewers have already wrapped up the National League Central, but are looking to finish the regular season strong.
Meanwhile, Mitch Keller will start for Pittsburgh. My Brewers vs. Pirates prediction is to bet the Pirates on the moneyline.
Brewers vs Pirates Prediction
- Brewers vs Pirates pick: Pirates Moneyline (+102 | Play to -120)
My Brewers vs Pirates best bet is on Pirates Moneyline, where I see value at +102. The best line is available at DraftKings, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Brewers vs Pirates Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-120 | 8 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +135 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+101 | 8 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -160 |
Brewers vs Pirates Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Aaron Civale (MIL) | Stat | RHP Mitch Keller (PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-9 | W-L | 11-11 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.1 |
| 4.53/4.09 | ERA /xERA | 4.21/4.26 |
| 4.84/4.37 | FIP / xFIP | 4.13/4.12 |
| 1.33 | WHIP | 1.29 |
| 14% | K-BB% | 14.9% |
| 34.8% | GB% | 39.4% |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 100 | Location+ | 101 |
D.J. James’ Brewers vs Pirates Preview
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview: What Can Milwaukee Expect From Civale?
Civale has a 4.53 ERA and a 4.09 xERA, so if there is more to the season, he would potentially have more favorable outcomes. However, his Average Exit Velocity is 89.5 mph and his Hard-Hit rate is below average. His ground-ball rate only ranks in the 11th percentile, which can present issues. Civale is also walking almost 8% of opposing hitters and striking out just 21%, so he's not blowing many hitters away.
The Brewers have a 103 wRC+, a 9.9% walk rate and a 24.8% strikeout rate against righties over the past month. They also only have only five batters with a xwOBA over .330. Sure, they have some sluggers atop the batting order, but this lineup quickly tapers off.
In relief, the Brewers have been better in the past month. They have a 3.56 xFIP with an 8.3% walk rate and a 28.3% strikeout rate. They have six active arms under a 4.00 xFIP, which explains their collective number. If Civale isn't quickly accruing pitches via the walk, the Brewers have options in relief.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview: Back Keller at Home
Keller has a 4.21 ERA and a 4.26 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is above 88 mph and his Hard-Hit Rate is in the 46th percentile. He doesn't have as low of a ground-ball rate as Civale, and only walks 6.4% of batters while striking out 21.3%. He can also limit barrels, which is encouraging. With how quickly Milwaukee’s lineup can fall off, Keller could pitch deep into this game.
The Pirates have a 90 wRC+, a 7.9% walk rate and a 23.7% strikeout rate against righties in the past month. However, when taking a deeper look, they have eight active bats with a xwOBA over .330 off of righties. This lineup should fare well against Civale and could show some patience to push him out of the game earlier than expected.
The Pirates relief staff has been unreliable this season. They have a 5.08 xFIP, a 13.1% walk rate and a 19.2% strikeout rate over the past month. On the other hand, they still have four arms with an xFIP under 4.00. They may not have lockdown options, but there should be enough to finish the job after a strong start from Keller.
Brewers vs Pirates Prediction, Betting Analysis
Look for Keller to have a slight edge over Civale. The Pirates’ relief staff has had its issues, but Keller doesn't walk many and could pitch deep into this game. Since the Pirates can produce throughout the order, they have an edge, especially at home. Take the Pirates to win this from +102 to -120. They should be favored.
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline +102 | Play to -120
Moneyline
I'm betting the Pirates moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm going to pass on the Brewers vs. Pirates run line.
Over/Under
I'm not betting the Brewers vs. Pirates over/under.
Brewers vs Pirates Betting Trends
Brewers Betting Trends
Brewers are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Brewers are 42-37 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of the Brewers last 5 games
Pirates Betting Trends
Pirates are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Pirates are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of the Pirates last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 40 of the Pirates 79 last games at home
Brewers vs Pirates Weather
