The San Francisco Giants host the Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday at Oracle Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET on MLB.TV. Find my Brewers vs Giants prediction and pick for Thursday, plus the latest MLB odds for September 12, below.
Brewers-Giants odds for Thursday have the Brewers as -130 moneyline favorites and the Giants as +110 underdogs. The over/under is set at 7.5 (-115o / -105u). Frankie Montas takes the mound for Milwaukee, while San Francisco hands the ball to Hayden Birdsong.
Brewers-Giants Predictions
- Brewers-Giants picks: Over 7.5 (-120 | Play to -125)
My Brewers-Giants best bet is on the over, where I see value at -120. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-130 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -1.5 +135 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+110 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +1.5 -160 |
- Brewers-Giants Moneyline: Brewers -130 | Giants +110
- Brewers-Giants Over/Under: 7.5 total runs (-115o / -105u)
- Brewers-Giants Spread: Brewers -1.5 (+135) | Giants +1.5 (-160)
Brewers at Giants Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Frankie Montas (MIL) | Stat | RHP Hayden Birdsong (SF) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-10 | W-L | 3-5 |
| 1.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.4 |
| 4.69 / 4.61 | ERA /xERA | 5.19 / 4.90 |
| 4.54 / 4.40 | FIP / xFIP | 5.41 / 4.54 |
| 1.37 | WHIP | 1.50 |
| 11% | K-BB% | 12.4% |
| 41% | GB% | 42% |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 111 |
| 100 | Location+ | 91 |
Tony Sartori's Brewers-Giants Preview
Brewers Betting Preview: The Crew is Heating Up
Montas should be a good fade candidate. Through 26 starts this season, the right-hander is 6-10 with a 4.69 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally poor as Montas ranks in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. These woes are likely to continue against San Francisco, a team Montas allowed four runs against on seven hits in under five innings in their most recent meeting.
The good news for Milwaukee's starting pitcher is that he's likely to receive an abundance of run support. The Brewers rank in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and stolen bases.
This success at the dish is likely to continue against Birdsong, a pitcher whom this current Milwaukee lineup boasts a .286 BA, .571 SLG and .412 wOBA against through 19 combined career plate appearances.
Giants Betting Preview: Bad News for Frankie Montas
The Brewers' success against Birdsong shouldn't be all that surprising. Through the first 12 starts of his rookie campaign, the right-hander is 3-5 with a 5.19 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP.
His analytics suggest that positive regression is unlikely as Birdsong ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in xERA, average exit velocity, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Birdsong just faced Milwaukee two starts ago and surrendered five runs in under four innings of work.
Following the rookie hurler is a bullpen that ranks in the bottom half of the league in ERA. Like the Brewers, the good news for the Giants is that they possess a strong track record against tonight's opposing pitcher.
Through 37 combined career plate appearances against Montas, this current San Francisco lineup boasts a .286 BA, a .629 SLG and a .398 wOBA.
Brewers vs Giants Prediction, Betting Analysis
There should be a lot of optimism on the over at 7.5. Both starting pitchers rank in the bottom half of the league in xERA, average exit velocity, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, both lineup possess a tremendous track record against the opposing starter. That just leaves the relief pitching, which should be a wash as Milwaukee's strong bullpen is cancelled out by San Francisco's struggles.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-120 at FanDuel | Play to -125)
Moneyline
I'm going to pass on the moneyline. I have no interest in laying -138 with Milwaukee and also have no interest in backing San Francisco.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm also going to pass on the run line. I like the Giants at +1.5, but not with the amount of juice I'd have to lay.
Over/Under
I'm betting Over 7.5 in this game.
Brewers-Giants Betting Trends
Brewers Betting Trends
- Brewers are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
- Brewers are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Brewers are 37-36 in their road games against the spread
Giants Betting Trends
- Giants are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Giants are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Brewers-Giants Weather Forecast
