The San Francisco Giants host the Milwaukee Brewers on April 23, 2025. First pitch from Oracle Park is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on NBCS-BA and MLB.TV.
Two high-quality starters will face off, as Milwaukee's Freddy Peralta will battle against San Francisco's Logan Webb for the 3rd matchup of a 4-game series.
The Brewers offense went off for 11 runs in the first matchup of the series in a game started by Jordan Hicks, but Webb should present a much more difficult test considering his career numbers at Oracle Park.
The Giants enter as a -145 favorite with the over/under sitting at 7.
Find my Brewers vs Giants prediction and MLB betting preview below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Brewers vs Giants Prediction
- Brewers vs Giants picks: Logan Webb to Record a Win (+160 at bet365 · Play to +150)
My Brewers vs Giants best bet is for Logan Webb to record a win. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Brewers vs Giants Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 7 +105o / -125u | +120 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 7 +105o / -125u | -145 |
Nick Martin’s Brewers vs Giants Preview
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview: How Does Peralta Match Up?
Peralta will look to continue what has been an excellent start to the season in this matchup and secure an impressive series win for the Brewers, who sit 1.5 games back of the Cubs in what should be a strong battle for the NL Central crown.
Peralta pitched to an ERA of 3.68 across 173 2/3 innings of work in 2024 and was projected to hold a comparable ERA in 2025 by all the major projection systems.
Given his 1.91 ERA and 2.51 xERA in his initial five starts of the season, he should have a good chance of overachieving expectations and improving on last year's results.
Pitch metrics suggest Peralta is still more or less the same pitcher he's been throughout his career, which is far from a bad thing given how excellent he has been historically.
However, it also suggests this level of dominance may not continue. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 105 and a Pitching+ rating of 100 this season, which is down compared to his career average of 105.
The Brewers own an offensive wRC+ rating of 95 and an OPS of .701 entering this matchup. Those marks have been aided by a couple of outlier performances, including a 17-run performance at Coors Field, a 14-run output on Sunday against the Athletics and Tuesday's 11-run output.
The Brewers rank 16th in BB/K ratio and 20th in hard-hit rate across their first 24 games of the season.
San Francisco Giants Betting Preview: Webb is Rolling
Webb has consistently thrived at home in his career with the Giants, and over a massive sample of play, has consistently fared far better at home inside the pitcher-friendly confines of Oracle Park.
Webb finished 2024 with a 2.83 ERA across 101 2/3 innings of work at Oracle after posting a 2.26 ERA in 111 2/3 innings at home in 2023.
In his only start at home this season, Webb dominated the Reds, allowing just four hits and zero earned runs across seven innings of work.
It's been a positive start to the season overall for Webb, who holds an xFIP of 1.92 across his first 30 innings pitched. He continues to generate plenty of groundballs (55.7% groundball rate) and has still posted a career-best K-BB% of 26.7. He holds a Pitching+ rating of 109 and boasts a high-quality five-pitch mix.
The Giants offense has been effective so far, despite the fact that former Brewer Willy Adames has struggled mightily at the plate, having slugged just .268 in his first 24 games as a Giant.
Having Jung Hoo Lee healthy has helped to cover up for Adames' lack of production, as Lee holds a .573 slugging rate and a .947 OPS entering this matchup.
As a team, the Giants boast a wRC+ of 106 and hold an OPS of .731 against right-handed pitching. They have no noteworthy position players on the IL and should present a tough test for Peralta.
Brewers vs Giants Prediction, Betting Analysis
Peralta has had a tremendous start to the season with an ERA of just 1.91. Backing the Giants as favorites in this matchup might not look overly appealing for that reason, but there are some arguments that suggest the Giants aren't getting enough credit at -141.
It's entirely reasonable to think Webb will prove to be the superior of these two starters this season, and over a large sample size, he's been entirely dominant at Oracle Park. He's generating groundballs at a high rate, striking out more batters than ever and still limiting walks.
The Giants' lineup looks quite excellent on paper, and while they've been fairly productive so far, there could still be room to grow moving forward.
Backing the Giants to win at -140 is one reasonable option, but I'm happy to take the far better number of +160 to back Webb to record a win.
Webb has pitched at least five innings in every matchup this season and has a slightly better chance of getting some run support than oddsmakers expect.
Pick: Logan Webb to Record a Win (+160 at bet365 · Play to +150)
Moneyline
As outlined, backing the Giants to win at -140 would be my bet in terms of a side.
Run Line (Spread)
Backing the Giants to cover the run line at +150 looks to provide some value and would likely hold a similar EV to betting on them to win the game.
Over/Under
A low total of 6.5 looks accurate to me, considering the starting pitching matchup.
