The odds for Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals (via FanDuel) for Thursday have the Brewers as -118 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8 (-105/-115). Right-hander Freddy Peralta takes the mound for Milwaukee, while St. Louis hands the ball to right-hander Miles Mikolas.
However, for my Brewers vs. Cardinals prediction, I'll be looking at a different market — I see betting value on the run line.
Brewers vs Cardinals Prediction: Bet Milwaukee on the Run Line
- Brewers vs Cardinals pick: Brewers -1.5 | Bet to +135
Brewers vs Cardinals Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 7.5 -125o / 105u | -130 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 7.5 -125o / 105u | +110 |
Brewers vs Cardinals Projected Starting Pitchers
| Freddy Peralta | Stat | Miles Mikolas |
|---|---|---|
| 8-7 | W-L | 8-10 |
| 1.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.7 |
| 4.00 / 1.21 | ERA /xERA | 5.41 / 4.45 |
| 4.17 / 3.79 | FIP / xFIP | 4.19 / 4.16 |
| 1.21 | WHIP | 1.29 |
| 19.3% | K-BB% | 12.8% |
| 38.5% | GB% | 41.2% |
| 103 | Stuff+ | 88 |
| 98 | Location+ | 109 |
Tony Sartori’s Brewers vs Cardinals Preview
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview: Back Peralta
Peralta is clearly the superior pitcher in this matchup. The right-hander is 8-7 with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP through 25 starts this season.
His underlying metrics are even stronger as Peralta boasts a 3.85 xERA and ranks in the 66th percentile or higher in xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate. That success is likely to continue against St. Louis, a team the right-hander possesses a 3.38 ERA against over their past five meetings.
Following Peralta is one of the league's best bullpens. Milwaukee's relief staff ranks second in the league in ERA and eighth in xFIP.
This pitching staff should also receive plenty of run support as the Brewers rank in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and stolen bases. That success at the dish is likely to continue against Mikolas, a pitcher whom this current Milwaukee lineup boasts a .295 BA, a .500 SLG and a .358 wOBA against through 95 combined career plate appearances.
St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview: Mikolas in Tough Spot
Mikolas possesses a fade-worthy 5.56 ERA against the Brewers over their past four meetings. This season, the right-hander is 8-10 through 25 starts with a 5.41 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP.
His analytics are equally poor as Mikolas ranks in the 30th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate. Entering this contest in particularly poor form, the right-hander has surrendered four or more runs in each of his past three starts.
Mikolas is 0-2 over that stretch with a troubling 9.22 ERA. Making life even more difficult for St. Louis' starting pitcher is the fact that run support will likely be difficult to come by.
The Cardinals rank in the bottom half of the league in runs scored per game, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.
Brewers vs Cardinals Prediction, Betting Analysis
Milwaukee is clearly the superior team in this matchup. Peralta outranks Mikolas in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, the Brewers' bullpen outranks St. Louis' in ERA and xFIP. Finally, Milwaukee paces the Cardinals in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.
The only advantage St. Louis possesses is home-field, but that doesn't worry me as the Brewers' road win percentage surpasses the Cardinals' home win percentage. Due to the magnitude of these gaps across the board, I believe there is more value in backing Milwaukee on the run line at +142 rather than laying -118 on the moneyline.
Brewers vs Cardinals Pick: Brewers -1.5 | Play to +135
Moneyline
Pass.
I don't think this is a poor play, but I believe that there's more value in backing Milwaukee's run line.
Run Line (Spread)
Bet the Brewers (-1.5) on the run line at +142.
Over/Under
I'm going to pass on the over/under.
There are too many variables to attack this market. Peralta is a strong pitcher and should quell a modest Cardinals lineup, while Mikolas is untrustworthy against a tremendous Milwaukee lineup.
Brewers vs Cardinals Betting Trends
BREWERS:
- Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 games
- Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Brewers are 34-30 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Brewers' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 34 of Brewers' 62 last games at home
CARDINALS:
- Cardinals are 2-3 in their last 5 games
- Cardinals are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Cardinals are 26-37 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Cardinals' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 32 of Cardinals' 63 last games at home
