The Atlanta Braves host the Minnesota Twins on on April 18, 2025. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on Apple TV+.
Atlanta found its offense with six runs on Friday night and will no have an opportunity to keep the foot on the gas against a struggling right-hander going for Minnesota.
Find my MLB betting preview and Twins vs Braves prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Twins vs Braves Prediction
- Twins vs Braves picks: Braves First Five -0.5 (-145) | Play to -155
My Twins vs Braves best bet is Braves First Five -0.5 (-145). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Twins vs Braves Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -120 | 7.5 -118o / -104u | +188 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +100 | 7.5 -118o / -104u | -225 |
Twins vs Braves Projected Starting Pitchers
| Simeon Woods Richardson | Stat | Chris Sale |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 0-2 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 4.30 / 5.80 | ERA /xERA | 6.63 / 4.30 |
| 3.85 / 4.55 | FIP / xFIP | 3.66 / 3.37 |
| 1.57 | WHIP | 1.53 |
| 16.7% | K-BB% | 22.7% |
| 25.6 | GB% | 35.7% |
| 91 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 96 | Location+ | 103 |
Kenny Ducey's Twins vs Braves Preview
Minnesota Twins Betting Preview: Fade Woods Richardson
I've long been a Simeon Woods Richardson hater, and it's easy to see why with his profile. He's a contact-oriented pitcher with a low 20.8% career strikeout rate who has pitched to an extreme number of fly balls; so far this season, his fly-ball percentage is all the way up to 45.5%, which is an insane 21 points higher than average.
Atlanta has started off the season on a so-so note, but ranks 17th in OPS to fly-ball pitchers as opposed to 24th in the reverse split. That's troublesome for a pitcher who's already in a bit of hot water, carrying a .579 Expected Slugging into this start.
Things managed to level out somewhat in that area for Woods Richardson a year ago, sneaking in under the league average after years of failures in terms of limiting power, but it seems his eye towards better command this season has actually worked against him. His strikeouts are up a tick, his walks are down a tick, and with more strikes has come more chances for offenses to do damage. He's already allowed 10 barrels to give him an incredibly poor 22.7% barrel rate and now will have to contend with a talented lineup that may be starting to figure things out.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview: Positive Regression Looming for Sale
Atlanta is quietly stating to percolate at the dish. Yes, it does rank just 16th in wRC+ over the past week, but its .196 Isolated Power is excellent and will surely play a part in deciding this game against a pitcher who's struggled to keep the ball in the yard.
The Braves have fallen victim to strikeouts at a poor 29.5% clip, something that's not very pretty next to an unassuming 8.6% walk rate, but the good news it that there should be plenty of chances to drive the ball here and Woods Richardson has never been one to miss bats with his friendly arsenal of pitches.
It's not as if Chris Sale will need too much help, either, despite the fact that he's opened up the year with something of a Cy Young Award hangover and a 6.63 ERA through four starts. He's still near the league lead in chase rate with a solid 27.3% strikeout rate to go along with it, and while he's been susceptible to some power he'll draw a Twins team that has swung at everything and has only found a .124 ISO in the past week.
Sale has had to face some tough lineups so far this year in the form of the San Diego Padres, Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, and Tampa Bay Rays, and this will stand as his easiest matchup to date.
Twins vs Braves Prediction, Betting Analysis
The strikeout stuff is still there for Sale, and he's more or less kept things under control on contact. While he may not sit down many hitters on strikes given Minnesota's profile, he should find a comfortable way through this one given many of the Twins' power bats are injured and has led this team to very few extra-base hits.
On the other end, the Braves have only hit for power, looking undisciplined at the plate, but they should welcome Woods Richardson with open arms and enjoy squaring off against a pitcher who does nothing but give up contact — and loud contact at that.
Atlanta looked like it finally woke up late on Friday with a five-run eighth inning to take the first game of the series. I like this team to continue trending up and smash a middling back-end starter Saturday night.
Pick: Braves First Five -0.5 (-145)
Moneyline
I like the Braves in this one, but I'm backing Chris Sale and betting Atlanta on the F5 moneyline instead.
Run Line (Spread)
I do not have a bet on the run line.
Over/Under
I also do not see value on the total.
