The Cleveland Guardians host the Minnesota Twins on April 28, 2025. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MNNT and MLB.TV.
It will be Bailey Ober on the mound for the Twins tonight, and Gavin Williams will oppose him for the Guardians.
Find my Twins vs Guardians prediction and MLB betting preview below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Twins vs Guardians Prediction
- Twins vs Guardians picks: Guardians ML -130
My Guardians vs. Twins best bet is on Cleveland to win. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Twins vs Guardians Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 8 -115o / -105u | +105 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 8 -115o / -105u | -125 |
Twins vs Guardians Projected Starting Pitchers
Twins vs Guardians MLB Betting Preview
Minnesota Twins Betting Preview: Ober in Trouble?
The Twins desperately needed to start winning, and a sweep over the Angels is just what they needed to get over the hump. Minnesota now needs to continue rattling off series wins, but it's headed in the right direction.
However, I have doubts about tonight's matchup. Those doubts start with Bailey Ober. Ober enters tonight with a 5.04 ERA, right around where it should be.
Ober allows hard contact, and his strikeout stuff is mediocre. He's allowing an average exit velocity of 93.4 MPH, so opposing hitters are frequently squaring up the baseball against him.
But he has had substantial numbers against the Guardians in the past. They're batting just .116 in 69 at-bats against him, which would usually give me hope that he can turn in a strong start tonight.
However, I can't look past his underlying metrics. Watching his last start against the White Sox, Ober forced three groundball double plays to get him out of trouble in his six innings of work.
I point that out because Ober has a 26% groundball rate, which suggests he was fortunate to escape his last outing without much damage. He allowed eight hits in six innings of work, and besides his six strikeouts, there were a lot of hard outs.
The offense also has a tricky matchup against Cleveland starter Gavin Williams.
In a small sample size of at-bats, the only hitter in the lineup with decent success against Williams is Byron Buxton, who's 2-for-5 lifetime.
Williams has also been a much better pitcher at home than on the road thus far, with an ERA below 2.50. Left-handers are oddly struggling against him, batting .198 in 50 at-bats, whereas right-handers have given him the most trouble.
It's not the best matchup for the offense, and I'm overly concerned about Ober's performance tonight. There's no chance I can back the Twins tonight.
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview: Solid Matchup
As I alluded to, I love this matchup for the Guardians offense. Despite their struggles against Ober in the past, his metrics suggest he's due for an implosion this evening.
I also expect a heavy dose of left-handed bats in the Guardians' lineup tonight. Ober has been clobbered by lefties thus far, allowing a .346 opponent batting average.
It's an excellent matchup for the offense, which should give Williams a healthy lead. Ober has been playing with fire for far too long, and he's essentially a ticking time bomb at this point.
I also dug into Williams' numbers, and it's important to highlight some key findings. So far in 2025, his chase and whiff rates have increased since last season.
He was always a decent strikeout pitcher, but we may see even more substantial numbers from him in 2025. He still gives up a fair amount of hard contact, but his opponents' barrel rate has decreased, which suggests hitters are having a tough time squaring up the baseball.
This Twins' lineup is overrated, so I don't expect Williams to have many issues against them. It should be smooth sailing for the right-hander tonight.
Twins vs Guardians Prediction, Betting Analysis
I expect the Guardians to take care of business tonight, so I'd suggest grabbing the Cleveland moneyline before it climbs any further. It opened at -110 and has already climbed to -130 in most shops.
It's safe to say Ober is due for a massive letdown tonight, and I'm still puzzled about how he escaped his last start unscathed. He'll have a much tougher time here against the Guardians' lineup.
This is a solid buy-low, sell-high opportunity, and the matchup works nicely in our favor.
Pick: Guardians ML -130
Moneyline
My best bet for this game is on the Guardians to win at -130.
Run Line (Spread)
While I'm backing Cleveland, I'm rolling with the moneyline instead of the run line.
Over/Under
I'm staying away from the total on Monday evening.
