After consecutive losses, the Minnesota Twins will look to rebound on Tuesday night in San Diego (9:40 p.m. ET on MLB.TV) behind Bailey Ober.
Minnesota now sits 2 1/2 games back of Cleveland in the AL Central and will be greeted by San Diego Padres left-hander Martin Perez. With the way the veteran is running, it's anything but a friendly spot for the Twins.
Let's break down the best way to bet on Twins vs Padres with a same-game parlay bet for Tuesday.
Kenny Ducey's Twins vs. Padres MLB Parlay Picks for Tuesday
- Bailey Ober Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-106)
- Jackson Merrill 2+ Total Bases (+125)
- Royce Lewis 2+ Total Bases (+100)
Parlay Odds: +744 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Bailey Ober Under 4.5 Strikeouts
You may be asking yourself why Ober's strikeout total is so low, and I'm here to tell you there's a very good reason as to why.
The Padres have been masterful all season in limiting strikeouts, but in the past week, they're sitting at just a 13% strikeout rate, which is absolutely minuscule.
The last three starting pitchers to face them — Zebby Matthews, Bradley Blalock and Kyle Freeland — combined for just six strikeouts in 15 2/3 innings.
In fact, just one starting pitcher has gone over this total against the Padres in their last 15 games, and it was Cal Quantrill of all people just a few days ago.
It's a very handsome trend, and given Ober's preference to allow contact in the air, I'm not even sure he'll hang around all that long. San Diego ranks second in OPS to fly-ball pitchers.
Jackson Merrill 2+ Total Bases
This feels like stealing, honestly. Jackson Merrill has been incredible this season and has gone for at least two total bases in three of his past four contests, adding to a 13-game hot streak (.347 with 10 extra-base hits).
Merrill has hit well against fly-ball pitchers. He's tied for the team lead with 83 total bases against these types, hitting .282 with a .488 slugging percentage.
The rookie is also hitting a cool .318 against right-handers this year, to boot, with a .217 average against lefties weighing his season averages down a bit.
This is a man to believe in.
Royce Lewis 2+ Total Bases
In the words of a famous Toronto-based recording artist, you know I had to do it to 'em.
One of the most talented baseball players in the world is looking to bounce back after he went hitless for the first time in seven starts, and he couldn't have hand-picked a better arm to go against on Tuesday.
Perez's recent numbers are sparkling, but the left-hander remains a soft-tosser who allows plenty of hard-hit balls and tries desperately to pitch to contact on the ground.
Royce Lewis is an exit velocity machine and has raked against lefties this year, with a .999 OPS and a hit in 30.8% of his at-bats.
Perez will be giving up plenty of contact, and that should be music to our ears.
Lewis is really only held down by the strikeout, something he won't have to worry about in this one.
