We have a fun series of two of baseball’s hottest teams beginning on Monday night. San Diego and Minnesota have both caught fire after slow starts and are right in the thick of the playoff picture.
Twins vs. Padres Prediction
Minnesota currently holds the second wild card spot in the American League and are just two games behind Cleveland for the division. San Diego holds the top National League Wild Card spot and is somehow just three games behind the Dodgers for the division.
Over the last 60 days, the Padres have the best record in the National League and the Twins have the second-best record in the American League. These teams are playing great baseball, so here's my Twins vs. Padres pick and prediction.
Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres Pick: San Diego -155 or Better
Twins vs. Padres Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+135 | 7.5 -109/-110 | +1.5 -163 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-160 | 7.5 -109/-110 | -1.5 +136 |
Twins vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Zebby Matthews | Stat | RHP Michael King |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | W-L | 10-6 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.1 |
| 3.60/5.81 | ERA /xERA | 3.19/3.32 |
| 3.76/2.98 | FIP / xFIP | 3.33/3.35 |
| 1.17 | WHIP | 1.17 |
| 25 | K-BB% | 20.4 |
| 40 | GB% | 39.8 |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 93 |
| 105 | Location+ | 102 |
Mike Ianniello’s Twins vs Padres Preview
Minnesota Twins Betting Preview: Focus On Matthews' Pin-Point Command
24-year-old Zebby Matthews will make his second career start after he made his MLB Debut last Tuesday against Kansas City. Matthews looked solid in his debut, tossing five innings and allowing two runs on five hits, while striking out five batters to earn the win.
Matthews is Minnesota’s No. 5 ranked prospect and top ranked pitching prospect. He has flown through the minor leagues, after starting the season in High-A ball, he quickly moved to Double-A and made just four starts in Triple-A before getting the call up. Matthews best asset is his pin-point command. He has rarely allowed free passes even dating back to college.
The only thing that has been able to slow the Twins offense this season is the injured list. All of their top guys have missed games throughout the year and both Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton are currently sidelined.
However, this lineup is very deep and ranks top 10 in wRC+ and wOBA over the last month. Eight players have a wRC+ of at least 110 and a wOBA of .320.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Offense Still Getting The Job Done
The key piece of the Juan Soto trade to the Yankees, Michael King has already established himself as one of the Padres most reliable pitchers. King has a 3.19 ERA on the season and his xERA is right there as well.
King ranks in the top 25% of the league in nearly every metric. He has one of the games best strikeout rate thanks to a changeup that drops off a cliff. King’s 10.7 K/9 rate is seventh-best in the league. Since June 1, King has been brilliant to the tune of a 2.34 ERA and 11.3 K/9 rate.
No Fernando Tatis, no problem. Despite being without their best player since June, this Padres offense has been crushing the ball. San Diego leads the league in wOBA and wRC+ over the last two weeks.
This lineup has gotten it done from top to bottom. Over the last month the Padres have six players with an OPS of at least .850. Rookie sensation Jackson Merrill leads the way, with a .348 average and 1.059 OPS over that stretch. Both marks rank top 10 in the entire league.
Twins vs Padres Prediction, Betting Analysis
While Matthews looked solid in his big league debut, he is still a super inexperienced pitcher facing the hottest offense in baseball. Matthews flew threw the Twins’ minor league system after dominating a the Single-A and Double-A levels, but he did struggle at Triple-A. Matthews had a 5.68 ERA in four starts for St. Paul. His doesn’t have great stuff and his scouting report pegs him more as a guy with a limited ceiling that projects as a back-end starter.
Meanwhile, King has been nearly un-hittable lately. Over his last seven games, he has a 1.94 ERA allowing just nine runs while striking out 52 batters in 42 innings. He has allowed more than two runs just twice since May.
San Diego’s offense has been the best in the league over the last few weeks and Minnesota is without two of their most important bats. The Twins sit 14th in wOBA over the last two weeks and last week’s lost of Buxton was massive after he really started to heat up.
The Padres have a big advantage in starting pitcher, they have the better offense right now, and they have the best bullpen xFIP since the all-star break.
Pick: San Diego -155 or Better
Moneyline
The Padres have gone 15-8 during Michael King's starts this season. San Diego has the best record in the National League over the last two months. Back the red hot Padres at -155 or better.
Run Line (Spread)
Pass.
Over/Under
As good as King has been, I would lean to the over here given the upside of these two offenses. Both teams have depth, but the loss of Buxton for Minnesota was enough to keep me off the over. The over has gone 70-55 in Padres games this season.
