As we head toward Opening Day, I'm previewing MLB futures markets — this particular story is my player MLB awards preview covering the MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year markets.
Make sure to check out my other preseason futures previews, including Team Futures and Player Stat Futures.
Below, I'll provide my projections and simulated leaderboards (using a Monte Carlo simulation) for MLB player awards, guide you through each category, and tell you where I'm placing my money for the 2025 MLB season.
As a reminder, I will post any new bets I make throughout the season to the Action Network app. Download the app, follow me and get notifications when I place a bet.
Most Valuable Player Analysis
Before breaking down the potential list of Most Valuable Player candidates for 2025, let's talk about what matters and what does not matter to MVP voters.
Important:
- Wins Above Replacement (WAR): Twenty-eight of the past 30 MVP winners (93%) ranked in the top three in WAR in their respective leagues. Twenty-one (70%) of those 30 winners finished as the league leader in WAR, including both Aaron Judge (11.2 WAR) and Shohei Ohtani (9.1) in 2024.
- OPS Ranking: Counts twice as much as a player's ranking in any counting stat (batting average, RBI, home runs, stolen bases) or team winning percentage. Every (offensive) MVP winner since 2001, except for Ichiro Suzuki, has had an OPS greater than .850, which generally limits the MVP's…
- Position: In the past two decades, two pure pitchers (Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander) have won MVP (three in 35 years). Outfielders and corner infielders have won more than 75% of the time, including 17 of the 20 most recent recipients (second baseman Jose Altuve and DH/pitcher Shohei Ohtani are the only exceptions). The WAR positional adjustment for middle infielders or catchers isn't enough to overcome superior offensive production.
Irrelevant
- Making the Playoffs: Twelve of the past 50 MVP winners (24%) failed to make the postseason. Perhaps more importantly, in 2022, none of the three finalists in either league made the postseason, the most dramatic shift in the history of MVP voting.
Inconclusive
- Teammates Competing for Votes: Since 2000, the closest teammates in MVP voting, relative to the actual MVP winners, has ranked around 10th, on average. Only one pair of teammates finished one-two — Jeff Kent and Barry Bonds in 2000. Five additional pairs have finished in the top three of voting, including Aaron Judge and Juan Soto in 2024. Five MVP winners finished with multiple teammates in the top 10, including Ronald Acuña Jr. in 2023 (alongside Matt Olson, 4th, and Austin Riley, 7th). Conversely, there are four instances where three teammates finished in the Top 10 without winning any awards, potentially stealing votes from one another.
Here are my projected MVP contenders for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds in the betting market and my sim ranking, which analyzes the field on projection data, including total WAR, WAR Potential (per plate appearance) and OPS.
American League MVP
The American League doesn't have nearly as many position player stars as the senior circuit. Juan Soto and Kyle Tucker — now both top-five players in the NL — switched leagues this offseason (joining Shohei Ohtani from last year), and the NL has had back-to-back loaded rookie classes produce multiple potential superstars.
Here are the AL players who missed the cut for the graphic (<1%) in my above projected AL MVP odds: Cal Raleigh, Alex Bregman, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Jordan Westburg, Junior Caminero, Royce Lewis, Jose Altuve, Bo Bichette, Christian Walker, Colton Cowser, Zach Neto and Luis Robert.
And here are the NL players who missed the cut for the below graphic (<1%) in my projected NL MVP odds: Trea Turner, Matt Olson, Willy Adames, Pete Alonso, Gabriel Moreno, Matt McLain, Kyle Schwarber, JT Realmuto, Teoscar Hernandez, Ozzie Albies, Jackson Chourio, James Wood and Marcell Ozuna.
I STRONGLY prefer the NL position player group's depth, quality and youth to the AL.
Bobby Witt Jr. is an obvious future AL MVP as he enters his age-24 season off a 10-win campaign. It was one of the best offensive seasons in MLB history from a shortstop, yet he didn't receive a first-place vote for MVP in 2024.
Aaron Judge looms over this category (in addition to the HR and RBI leader categories) by existing for at least 140 games, and injury is seemingly the only way that Witt — or anyone else — can eliminate Judge from contention in any of those markets. Still, a nagging toe ligament cost Judge two months during the 2023 season and he remains a risky bet on the spectrum of player health, missing enough time to disqualify himself from contention in at least 30% of my simulations.
I highlighted Yordan Alvarez at +2500 in the HR and RBI leader markets; Yordan will move to DH this season — costing himself some WAR upside — but ultimately reducing his injury risk. He likely needs to lead the AL — if not all of MLB — in either or both stat categories to get into the AL MVP conversation anyway. And you can avoid the inevitable debate voters would ultimately make between Yordan and the position player with the highest WAR ranking.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is worth a bet in a contract year in an AL East that looks wide open for the taking. However, Vlad's MVP odds aren't so dissimilar from his hits leader and RBI leader odds; I would bet into all three markets. The primary concern with the MVP bet is that Vlad could get traded to the NL, but both he (and the Blue Jays) are likely out of contention for anything meaningful if that comes to pass anyway. He finished third in second-half WAR (3.7) in the AL last season.
I made the argument for Julio Rodriguez at +1300 last season coming off a dominant four-month stretch in 2023 (when he led the AL in WAR from July 1 onward) and I'm pleased to buy his odds at double the price for 2025. As I mentioned in my stat leader article, Rodriguez had a down 2024 season due to a combination of playing through injury and bad luck, but he showed improved swing decision data (his most-needed area of improvement) through the slumps, and finished with a dominant September.
Jose Ramirez has finished in the top-10 of MVP voting in five consecutive seasons, and in seven of the past eight years, including a second-place finish, two thirds, one fourth, one fifth and one sixth-place finish. He's hit every spot in the top five except the one that matters despite leading the AL in WAR in both 2020 and 2021. Ramirez nearly missed joining the 40-40 club last season, and he is always in range for me at +2000 or better (listed around +1500 in 2023, +3000 in 2024).
Wyatt Langford and Riley Greene are potential level-jump youngsters with upside that I like, on teams I bet to win their respective divisions.
Langford finished as the AL player of the month in September (.996 OPS, 8 HR, 7 SB, MLB-best 1.6 WAR). If Langord combines elite offensive production — which is expected after flying through the minors (47 total games) — with plus speed (98th percentile) and above-average outfield defense, he will be a top-10 player in the sport by year's end. Langford dealt with an oblique injury this spring but should be ready for Opening Day.
Greene isn't as toolsy as Langford and plays in a pitcher's park, but he does offer elite power metrics (85th percentile bat speed, 90th percentile barrel rate) that point to a potential .300 average, 35 HR, 100 RBI season at peak. There just may be another step to a .280-30-90 season along the way.
National League MVP
Combining his pitching and hitting WAR projections, Shohei Ohtani is expected to clear Juan Soto — and the remainder of the NL field — by at least two full wins (projected 8.6 WAR, Soto at 6.5, then down to Mookie Betts at 5.6, Paul Skenes at 5.4, and Francisco Lindor at 5.2) but going back to the pitcher's mound does increase Ohtani's overall injury risk this season.
I bet Kyle Tucker, after the trade to Chicago, before running this simulation. King Tuck was in the midst of a career year (pacing for an 8.5 WAR season) in 2024 — showing career-best power and plate discipline metrics — before a shin fracture from a foul ball. Tucker has come close to joining the 30-30 club, but he's not particularly fast (33rd percentile in sprint speed before his injury, 18th after) and he seems to be adding more power as he matures into his late twenties (often the peak power seasons for a hitter); Tucker is on a shortlist of batters who could post a .300 average with 40 homers in 2025.
He's also a good example of why I trust my stat leader simulations much more than I do awards projections. If a player wins a stat category, they are absolutely the winner, but attempting to model voter behavior and preference is like shooting at a moving target.
As a result, while I would always caution against using my projections as gospel (rather than as a guideline), I'm more flexible on price targets in awards markets (than player stat or team futures markets). In a dominant season, Tucker would almost certainly get a boost from some voters for switching leagues and helping the Cubs to a division title.
I made the case for Corbin Carroll in a pair of stat leader markets (his runs leader prop is my favorite long-shot bet for 2025), and would add an MVP ticket too; Carroll finished third in the NL in WAR (3.1) over the second half of 2024 after beginning to pull the ball in the air.
Elly De La Cruz has unlimited potential, after finishing third in NL WAR (6.4) in his age-22 season. He's the fastest man in baseball, but also ranked in the 90th percentile in bat speed and 70th percentile in walk rate. If Elly improves on the whiffs (8th percentile), he'll eventually become the seventh member of the 40-40 club (or 8th if Bobby Witt Jr. gets there first) if not threaten to join Ohtani at 50-50 playing in a boosted home run environment in Cincinnati.
You can wait until Ronald Acuña Jr. comes back to fire at Mr. 40-70 at +5000 or higher in May, but I prefer his teammate Austin Riley, who I bet last season at half the number following a dominant second half in 2023 (.968 OPS, 153 wRC+ and 21 homers in 321 plate appearances). Riley missed significant time with oblique and hand injuries in 2024, but I'm confident we haven't seen his career year (45-50 home run upside), with elite power metrics (95th percentile in bat speed in 2023, 90th in 2024) heading into his age-28 season.
Paul Skenes projects fourth in the NL in total WAR for 2025, and he already overperformed his expected vote share in NL Rookie of the Year voting last season (although he did properly finish behind Jackson Merrill in MVP voting).
There's no other category besides awards where I have to model pitchers' and hitters' chances of winning the same category against one another based on — save for WAR — entirely differing datapoints, making it challenging to assess where Skenes would indeed rank in an MVP vote against position players, final WAR totals being equal.
When running a rougher projection (before settling on weighted formula to model voter behavior) my less optimistic projection put Skenes near +5500, and I think +5000 is a reasonable cutoff for even the best starting pitchers in the MVP market. Skenes likely needs to win the NL pitching triple crown and/or drag the Pirates to their first-ever NL Central title in order to receive double hardware.
MVP Bets for AL and NL
- AL MVP: Riley Greene (+7500, 0.05u) at ESPN Bet (bet to +5000)
- AL MVP: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+1800, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to +1500)
- AL MVP: Wyatt Langford (+6000, 0.1u) at ESPN Bet (bet to +3500)
- AL MVP: Jose Ramirez (+2000, 0.1u) at ESPN Bet (bet to +2000)
- AL MVP: Julio Rodriguez (+2800, 0.1u) at bet365 (bet to +1750)
- NL MVP: Corbin Carroll (+4500, 0.1u) at FanDuel (bet to +2500)
- NL MVP: Elly De La Cruz (+3000, 0.1u) at FanDuel (bet to +2500)
- NL MVP: Austin Riley (+5000, 0.05u) at FanDuel (bet to +4000)
- NL MVP: Paul Skenes (+6500, 0.05u) at Caesars (bet to +5000)
- NL MVP: Kyle Tucker (+1700, 0.1u) at FanDuel (bet to +1500)
Cy Young Award Analysis
Historically, four basic statistics correlate most strongly to Cy Young winners: Wins, ERA, strikeouts and WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched).
However, there has been a clear upward trend in recent seasons regarding WAR and Cy Young winners — which mirrors the trend between WAR and MVPs.
Fifteen of the past 18 (83%) Cy Young winners have finished in the top three in their respective leagues in pitching WAR — the only exceptions being Blake Snell (7th in 2018 and 6th in 2023) and Robbie Ray (7th in 2021). Chris Sale (6.4 WAR) and Tarik Skubal (5.9) led their respective leagues in WAR in 2024.
Here are my projected Cy Young contenders for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds in the betting market and my sim ranking, which analyzes the field on projection data, including total WAR, WAR Potential (per inning pitched), strikeout rate and pitch modeling metrics.
American League Cy Young
Of the four non-rookie awards markets, AL Cy Young is easily the most wide-open category without an Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani or Paul Skenes sitting atop the field.
I prefer Garrett Crochet in the strikeout leader market and Tarik Skubal in the wins leader market relative to their shorter odds for AL Cy Young.
Jacob deGrom offers the broadest range of outcomes of any pitcher in baseball this year; he could continue to struggle with injuries and provide little to no value to the Rangers, or he could post one of the best pitching seasons in MLB history.
Injuries have limited the three-time Cy Young winner to an average of 9.4 starts over the past five seasons, but when deGrom has pitched his skills are unmatched; he owns a 39.2% K-BB% over 35 starts since 2021. The closest pitchers to him over that span (min. 100 innings) are Liam Hendricks (33.9%), Edwin Diaz (32.5%), Felix Bautista and Spencer Strider (28.8%).
deGrom's average WAR projection (3.9) for 2025 ranks third among AL contenders. And deGrom may lower the requisite innings threshold (typically 170) for Cy Young contention if he's particularly efficient. Steamer thinks deGrom can lead the AL at that threshold (projected 152 IP in 26 starts, 5.1 WAR) in 2025 (Skubal projected for 196 IP in 32 starts, 5.0 WAR).
Logan Gilbert made significant adjustments in 2024 — changing his arm slot and delivery — leading to an uptick in fastball velocity (+0.9 mph). He also continued to modify his pitch mix — decreasing his four-seam fastball usage down near 30% — less than half the usage rate from his rookie year (60.9%).
Gilbert led the AL in K-BB% (27.7%) over the second half of last season after doubling the usage of his newfound sweeper from 7.6% in the first half to 16.4% in the second half, while also exchanging cutters for sinkers. And he's working on two new pitches this spring.
Gilbert has shown excellent command, ranking in the 95th percentile for walk rate over the past two seasons, but he's also proven the ability to add spin to his arsenal. If Gilbert can maintain his second-half strikeout rate (31.7%, second amongst qualified starters) he should set a new career high in strikeouts (240+ after posting 220 last season) and threaten the major league lead.
The strikeout rate and pitch modeling metrics for Pablo Lopez trended downward in 2024 (94 Stuff+, 107 Pitching+, 25,6% K%) after setting a career high in 2023 (100 Stuff+, 113 Pitching+, 29.2% K%). Still, he remains a high-floor option, with the ability to pad his stats in outings against the White Sox.
I prefer Hunter Brown at the same pricepoint. I sprinkled Brown at long odds (150-1) last season, predicting that he would be Houston's best pitcher by year's end. After a rough April (7.71 ERA), Brown added a sinker in May, and posted a 2.51 ERA over his remaining 147 innings, while ranking third in AL pitching WAR (2.1) in the second half.
I think Yusei Kikuchi and Taj Bradley are viable long-shot candidates, too (and clearly, my projection likes Kumar Rocker, who I'll discuss more, below).
I was surprised the Astros didn't re-sign Kikuchi after overpaying for him at the trade deadline; the southpaw tied with Skubal for the second-best K-BB% in the AL over the second half of 2024 (24.8%), while posting a career-best 31.1% K% after modifying his approach to right-handed hitters (3.23 xFIP vs. 4.07 career vs. right-handed hitters).
Bradley has elite stuff (108 Stuff+, three plus pitches), a wealth of MLB experience for a 24-year-old (46 starts, 242 innings) and is adding a cutter/slider to his arsenal. He posted a dominant nine-start stretch (0.82 ERA in 55 innings, 18 BB, 65 K, 2.49 FIP, 3.05 xFIP) last June and July, which provided a glimpse of his true ceiling.
Lastly, I placed bets on George Kirby (+2500) and Grayson Rodriguez (+4000) prior to their spring training injuries. Both remain top candidates on a per-inning basis, but considering each should miss a month (or more) of the season, it's difficult to get back into Cy Young contention unless they are particularly efficient (and you already have deGrom ahead of everyone in the AL in terms of WAR potential per start).
I'll consider tracking bets on both pitchers (at likely better numbers than currently available) as they both look to return from the IL in late April, but I would otherwise pass on both pitchers for now.
National League Cy Young
Paul Skenes projected as the best pitcher in baseball, going forward, by about the midpoint of last season — if not earlier. And he owns the highest average WAR projection among pitchers (5.4) for 2025; two-tenths of a win ahead of Skubal, and in the NL, nearly a full win ahead of Zack Wheeler (4.5). There are some long-shot candidates I like to get into contention, but I'm not sure if they could surpass Skenes absent an IL trip for the favorite.
Hunter Greene turned the corner in 2024, lowering his xERA from 3.8 to 3.03, and his FIP from 4.25 to 3.47, despite a dip in K% and K-BB%. You won't find a significant change in Greene's pitch usage stats aside from swapping a changeup (78 Stuff+) for a splitter (109 Stuff+), but he also modified the shape of his fastball, changed his pitch locations and generated far weaker contact than he had in the past.
Logan Webb doesn't have a high strikeout rate, but he's a high-floor innings eater (613 IP since 2022, 15 more than any other pitcher) who should benefit from upgraded team defense. Webb finished sixth in Cy Young voting last season, following a second-place finish in 2023, and an 11th place finish in 2022.
The Giants ranked as a bottom-10 defensive team (per Defensive Runs Saved) in all three seasons, and they have been terrible at shortstop. While Willy Adames had a down 2024 season defensively (-16 DRS, 35th among Shortstops), he was a plus defender in both 2022 and 2023 (combined +17 DRS) and figures to provide the Giants with a league-average glove at the position, joining five-time gold glover Matt Chapman on the left side of the infield. Tyler Fitzgerald (-6 at shortstop in 2024) will move to second base (+1 in six games) and the Giants will have a competent defensive outfield, too. Heliot Ramos should be fine in a corner (+6 in 2024) after struggling in center field (-15 in 60 games) in place of Jung Hoo Lee (-2 in 37 games).
Webb's K-BB% has fluctuated around 5% up or down over each of the past four seasons; if he can push that rate back near 20% — with improved team defense — he should finish with a sub-3 ERA and on the Cy Young shortlist.
Cristopher Sanchez (career 15.4% K-BB%, 57.1% groundball rate) is a left-handed version of Webb (career 16.2% K-BB%, 58% ground-ball rate), displaying increased sinker velocity (averaging 97 mph, up from 94.5 mph last season and 92.1 mph in 2023) this spring. Each tick in velocity is worth about a quarter run to a season-long ERA, meaning Sanchez could move from a 3.56 xERA (3.42 ERA) last year to sub-three indicators on the velocity uptick (and correlated gains) alone.
If the velocity holds, Sanchez should see an increase in strikeout rate; averaging a strikeout per inning with one of the highest ground-ball rates in the league is a path to potential dominance, leaving few opportunities for the ball to leave the yard. Moreover, Sanchez tossed 180 innings last season and is a strong bet to finish as one of a handful of pitchers to surpass 200 innings in 2025 — all of which boosts his WAR projection.
Spencer Schwellenbach impressed over 21 MLB starts last season and ultimately tossed 181 innings on the campaign, including time spent in the minors; he, too, seems poised for a potential 200-inning season in 2025. Schwellenbach has a wide arsenal (six pitches) with five of the six offerings rating at 100 or higher in terms of Stuff+.
Pitch modeling metrics viewed Schwellenbach as the sixth-best starter in MLB last season (113 Pitching+, ahead of Tyler Glasnow and Skubal, and behind Corbin Burnes, Skenes, Garrett Crochet, Dylan Cease, and Wheeler); Schwellenbach ranks amongst elite company.
Roki Sasaki has the chance to be an elite rookie; ZIPS has him finishing near 165 innings, but the remaining projections place him closer to 130 to 140. I doubt the Dodgers push their new ace too aggressively in his first MLB season, especially after he experienced a velocity decrease in Japan last season.
I'm not sure if Clay Holmes can get to the necessary innings in his first year back as a starter after tossing around 63 innings in each of the past three seasons. Holmes has looked dominant in spring after adding two pitches to his sinker/slider arsenal, including a kick change.
Holmes has an elite slider (168 Stuff+) and ground-ball rate (66.3% career) but has typically struggled against lefties (career 4.32 xFIP vs. 2.92 vs. righties) and the changeup should help to combat opposite-handed hitters. He appears to be the Mets' most effective starting pitcher coming into the season.
Cy Young Bets for AL and NL
- AL Cy Young: Hunter Brown (+2500, 0.1u) at bet365 (bet to +2000)
- AL Cy Young: Logan Gilbert (+1600, 0.15u) at DraftKings (bet to +1500)
- AL Cy Young: Jacob deGrom (+1500, 0.1u) at Bally Bet/BetRivers/Parx (bet to +1000)
- AL Cy Young: Pablo Lopez (+2200, 0.1u) at FanDuel (bet to +2000)
- NL Cy Young: Hunter Greene (+3200, 0.05u) at FanDuel (bet to +2500)
- NL Cy Young: Cristopher Sanchez (+5000, 0.05u) at FanDuel (bet to +3500)
- NL Cy Young: Spencer Schwellenbach (+5000, 0.05u) at Bally Bet/BetRivers/Parx (bet to +4000)
- NL Cy Young: Logan Webb (+3000, 0.05u) at FanDuel (bet to +2500)
Rookie of the Year Analysis
Prior to the 2024 season, a clear trend had emerged in Rookie of the Year (ROY) voting, towards typically rewarding the rookie hitter with the highest WAR total for the season. Eighteen of the 24 ROY winners (75%) between 2012-2023 finished atop the rookie leaderboard in their respective league in WAR, with an average ranking of 1.46 among the 24 award recipients (only skewed by the pandemic-shortened season in 2020)
However, a pair of pitchers (Paul Skenes, 2nd in NL WAR and Luis Gil, 8th in AL WAR and third among AL pitchers) earned top rookie honors in 2024, among a loaded class of debutants in both leagues.
While Skenes had a historic rookie season, Gil's selection (15 first-place votes) was a bit more controversial.
Colton Cowser (led the AL with 4 WAR) finished in second with 13 first-place votes, while Mason Miller and Cade Smith – who both finished ahead of Gil in pitching WAR — each received a first-place nod, too. If Cowser was instead first on each of those relief pitcher-led ballots, he wins the award and we continue to highlight WAR as the clear guideline for rookies moving forward; instead, we had an outlier result amid a clear recent trend. That said, I'm more willing to bet on exciting young pitchers in this category than I was previously.
Playing time and WAR should still continue to be most of the equation for narrowing down the ROY field in the preseason. However, WAR potential — or average WAR as a component of playing time — is also worth assessing in case these rookies exceed preseason expectations of playing time.
Here are my projected leaders among rookies for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds in the betting market and my sim ranking, which analyzes the field based on projection data, including WAR and WAR potential.
American League Rookie of the Year
Jacob Wilson (projected WAR range of 1.9 to 3.5; average 2.7) projects as the AL rookie WAR leader ahead of Jasson Dominguez (projected range of 1.3 to 2.5; average 1.8) for 2025. Wilson is projected to hit ninth in a good A's lineup, which is receiving a significant upgrade to their home run scoring environment while playing in Sacramento as compared to Oakland.
Wilson is a former sixth overall pick who flew through the minors (79 total games), including a dominant stretch last season (.433 average, 1.142 OPS in 53 games, 226 PA) to earn a big league promotion before sustaining a hamstring strain that kept him out until late August, fully disrupting his early year momentum. Wilson should be one of the best contact hitters in the sport (projected .286 average), and could move atop the A's batting order by midseason.
Boston's potential dynamic rookie duo of Kristian Campbell (projected range of 1.0 to 2.6 WAR; average 1.3) and Roman Anthony (projected range of 0.6 to 2.4 WAR; average 1.0) may struggle to find the requisite playing time in a deep Red Sox lineup over a full season.
Christian Moore and Juan Brito are the other two position players I like this spring.
Moore, the eighth overall pick out of Tennessee last June, is attempting to earn a roster spot this spring after 25 games in the minors. The Angels have been highly aggressive in promoting their other first-round picks, including Nolan Schanuel and Zach Neto, and manager Ron Washington is gushing over Moore and his potential flexibility. If Moore makes the Opening Day roster, average playing time projections (about 300 PA) should be about 80% higher.
The Guardians traded Andres Gimenez to Toronto to make room for the switch-hitting Brito, who smashed 21 homers with a high walk rate (13.5%) and modest strikeout rate (16.1%) in Triple-A last season. He's still in contention for the Opening Day second base job, but he has struggled this spring (2-for-23, 2 HR, 2 BB, 7 K).
Kumar Rocker, Zebby Matthews, and Sean Burke stand out as the value bets among pitchers.
Rocker could take an Opening Day roster slot instead of Tyler Mahle, who left a spring start on Tuesday with forearm soreness. Rocker projects between 1.1 and 2.2 WAR over a full season (average 1.8), well ahead of his teammate, Jack Leiter (range of 0.5 to 1.1, average 0.7) in about the same number of innings.
Matthews needs a spot to open up at the back of the Twins' rotation, but he surged through the minors last year (starting in High-A), showing improved stuff alongside his typically excellent command.
Burke, who has the best pitch modeling metrics of the three (101 Stuff+, 103 Pitching+), should toss plenty of innings for a bad White Sox team, and he could surpass his peak projection (139 innings from Steamer) over a full season in the majors.
Jackson Jobe (106 Stuff+) has the most upside of the rookie pitchers in the AL, but his odds are too short, and he could also begin the year in the minors.
The Royals don't have much depth so Noah Cameron could get significant innings for their pitching staff in 2025 after a breakout 2024 season in the minors.
National League Rookie of the Year
Roki Sasaki (projected range of 2.1 to 3.4 WAR; average 2.8) is in a similar price range for top rookie honors as Yoshinobu Yamamoto was last season.
Ultimately, Yamamoto only made 18 regular-season starts (90 IP) due to a triceps strain, and Sasaki doesn't come without risk. He was advised to undergo Tommy John as a rookie in Japan but declined the procedure, and he experienced a velocity dip during his final year overseas.
Moreover, the Dodgers seem unlikely to push Sasaki — who's coming off a 111-inning season in 2024 (with added rest in Japan) — past around 25 regular season starts in 2025 as they try to save bullets for the postseason. The Dodgers have a deep rotation — one of the best ever on paper — and they can afford to play things cautiously with their budding ace, particularly if they have a sizable divisional lead in August and September.
Sasaki's stuff does look ridiculous in spring, and given the precedent set by Paul Skenes last season, Sasaki may not need to to lead the NL in rookie WAR (and pitch an entire season) in order to win the award, provided that he's extremely efficient in the 20-25 starts he does get.
Bubba Chandler looks like another potential frontline starter for the Pirates, but like Skenes last year, he will begin the season in the minors. Consider adding Chandler at a better price than +1000 before he's called up.
I show much more significant value on Rhett Lowder (Reds) and Cade Cavalli (Nationals). However, Lowder is dealing with arm soreness in spring and Cavalli is coming off of Tommy John surgery — both pitchers will be brought along slowly and likely return to the big leagues in May. You can wait on both pitchers — I already have a Lowder ticket, however.
Jordan Lawlar is similar to Royce Lewis — incredibly talented, but he has struggled to prove it by staying on the field. As a result, the Diamondbacks have planned around him, creating a difficult path to full playing time (behind Geraldo Perdomo and Eugenio Suarez on the left side of the infield). I would invest in Lawlar in April if either infielder gets hurt or struggles and creates an opportunity for playing time (hopefully at +2000 or higher by that point).
The Marlins have a pair of intriguing young players in catcher Agustin Ramirez (acquired in the Jazz Chisholm Jr. trade) and first baseman Deyvison De Los Santos, who could earn significant playing time this season. ZIPS projects De Los Santos — who has 70-grade raw power — for 24 homers. He'll struggle to make contact and finish with a low WAR total. but he does have 30+ homer upside as a rookie (whether he debuts in 2025 or 2026).
Ramirez has rare 20-20 upside as a catcher (25-22 in the minors in 2024). ZIPS puts him at 17 HR, 10 SB and near 2 WAR over 500 PA, and he could get the call as soon as late April or early May. I doubt this number floats up much, and I'm intrigued by his skillset.
Two of my favorite hitters to keep an eye on are Thomas Saggese (Cardinals) and Bryce Eldridge (Giants).
Saggese, who debuted at age 22 last season, should be the Cardinals' first man up from the minor leagues; he has a path to full playing time for a team in a transitionary year (especially if Nolan Arenado is traded), and could slug 25 homers in an infield utility role. Saggese smashed in the Arizona Fall League (1.118 OOPS in 18 games) and has performed well in spring.
Eldridge is 6-foot-7 and carries rare 80-grade raw power, smashing his way from A-Ball to Triple-A in his age-19 season. Eldridge has struggled in spring, but a Giants team looking to take a step forward — particularly on offense — could give him an early call if he repeats his 2024 minor league performance (187 wRC+ in High-A, 116 in Double-A) in Triple-A (46 wRC+ in eight games to finish 2024).
Kevin Alcantara didn't make the Cubs' 31-man roster for the Japan series, but the "Jaguar" is an intriguing athlete (6'6"), with good defensive skills in center field and 20-20 offensive upside as a rookie. However, he needs an injury to one of Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kyle Tucker, Seiya Suzuki or Ian Happ to open up a roster spot — and even that may not be enough volume.
MLB Rookie of the Year Bets
- AL ROY: Juan Brito (+7500, 0.05u) at Caesars (bet to +3500)
- AL ROY: Christian Moore (+3500, 0.15u) at FanDuel (bet to +2500)
- AL ROY: Kumar Rocker (+2000, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to +1000)
- AL ROY: Jacob Wilson (+1500, 0.1u) at FanDuel (bet to +750)
- NL ROY: Rhett Lowder (+4000, 0.05u) at Bally Bet/BetRivers/Parx (bet to +3000)
- NL ROY: Agustin Ramirez (+4000, 0.05u) at Caesars (bet to +4000)
- NL ROY: Thomas Saggese (+3000, 0.05u) at Bally Bet/BetRivers/Parx (bet to +3000)
Zerillo's 2025 MLB Award Futures Bets
Cy Young Award
- AL Cy Young: Hunter Brown (+2500, 0.1u) at bet365 (bet to +2000)
- AL Cy Young: Logan Gilbert (+1600, 0.15u) at DraftKings (bet to +1500)
- AL Cy Young: Jacob deGrom (+1500, 0.1u) at Bally Bet/BetRivers/Parx (bet to +1000)
- AL Cy Young: Pablo Lopez (+2200, 0.1u) at FanDuel (bet to +2000)
- NL Cy Young: Hunter Greene (+3200, 0.05u) at FanDuel (bet to +2500)
- NL Cy Young: Cristopher Sanchez (+5000, 0.05u) at FanDuel (bet to +3500)
- NL Cy Young: Spencer Schwellenbach (+5000, 0.05u) at Bally Bet/BetRivers/Parx (bet to +4000)
- NL Cy Young: Logan Webb (+3000, 0.05u) at FanDuel (bet to +2500)
Most Valuable Player
- AL MVP: Riley Greene (+7500, 0.05u) at ESPN Bet (bet to +5000)
- AL MVP: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+1800, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to +1500)
- AL MVP: Wyatt Langford (+6000, 0.1u) at ESPN Bet (bet to +3500)
- AL MVP: Jose Ramirez (+2000, 0.1u) at ESPN Bet (bet to +2000)
- AL MVP: Julio Rodriguez (+2800, 0.1u) at bet365 (bet to +1750)
- NL MVP: Corbin Carroll (+4500, 0.1u) at FanDuel (bet to +2500)
- NL MVP: Elly De La Cruz (+3000, 0.1u) at FanDuel (bet to +2500)
- NL MVP: Austin Riley (+5000, 0.05u) at FanDuel (bet to +4000)
- NL MVP: Paul Skenes (+6500, 0.05u) at Caesars (bet to +5000)
- NL MVP: Kyle Tucker (+1700, 0.1u) at FanDuel (bet to +1500)
Rookie of the Year
- AL ROY: Juan Brito (+7500, 0.05u) at Caesars (bet to +3500)
- AL ROY: Christian Moore (+3500, 0.15u) at FanDuel (bet to +2500)
- AL ROY: Kumar Rocker (+2000, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to +1000)
- AL ROY: Jacob Wilson (+1500, 0.1u) at Fanduel (bet to +750)
- NL ROY: Agustin Ramirez (+4000, 0.05u) at Caesars (bet to +4000)
- NL ROY: Thomas Saggese (+3000, 0.05u) at Bally Bet/BetRivers/Parx (bet to +3000)
