MLB Best Bet & Pick
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There's a loaded, 15-game MLB slate on Sunday, but after looking over the MLB odds, we've zeroed in on Diamondbacks vs. Rays.
Our MLB best bet, pick and prediction for Sunday, August 18 is below, so make sure to keep reading.
William Boor's Diamondbacks vs Rays Best Bet: Can Arizona Avoid Sweep?
By William Boor
Arizona's torrid pace seems to be slowing down, but I still have a hard time believing this team will get swept.
The Diamondbacks have lost two in a row, but have been red hot since the All-Star Break and I see no reason to stop backing them now.
The Diamondbacks are 11-4 in August and won their first eight series — yes, you read that correctly — after the break. They can't win this series against Tampa Bay, but I do believe Merrill Kelly, along with the Diamondbacks' offense, can get a road win on Sunday.
Let's briefly start with that offense. Arizona certainly has an edge over Tampa Bay as the Diamondbacks lead the league with an average of 5.27 runs scored per game. Conversely, the Rays are averaging 3.88 runs per game, which ranks 28th in baseball.
That gap gets a bit wider when we factor in today's pitching matchup — Merrill Kelly vs. Taj Bradley.
Kelly missed over three months with an injury, so I'm not going to look very deep into his stats from the beginning of the year. He's made one start since returning from the Injured List and gave up two runs on three hits over five innings against the Phillies. That's definitely an encouraging sign.
As for Bradley, things have been trending in the wrong direction. The 23-year-old right-hander has a 3.49 ERA and a 3.82 xERA this season, but has given up 15 runs over 14 innings across his past three starts.
Bradley ranks in the 87th percentile in strikeout rate, but is in the eighth percentile in barrel rate. So, if he can get the Diamondbacks to swing and miss and chase, he'll be fine. However, if Arizona makes contact, it'll likely be loud, hard contact.
There's too much variance with Bradley and with the way Arizona has been playing, I simply can't pass up backing the Diamondbacks at this price.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline (-108)
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