We have a loaded 14-game slate in MLB on Friday, and our baseball betting experts have locked in a trio of MLB best bets for today's action — featuring moneyline picks for Braves vs Yankees and Blue Jays vs Guardians and a player prop prediction in Diamondbacks vs Phillies.
Read below for our three MLB best bets for Friday, June 21.
MLB Best Bets: 3 Friday Props, Picks and Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 p.m. | |
  | 7:05 p.m. | |
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies
By Tony Sartori
Arizona hands the ball to left-hander Jordan Montgomery, and he should be a good fade candidate. Montgomery has struggled mightily this season, posting a 6.00 ERA and 1.63 WHIP through 11 starts.
His underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is unlikely, given that he ranks in the 14th percentile in xERA and fifth percentile in xBA. Specifically, we are going to fade Montgomery in the prop market as he ranks in the eighth percentile in strikeout rate.
You can currently find his strikeout line at 4.5, a total the southpaw has failed to surpass in five of his past six starts. These woes are likely to continue against Philadelphia.
Although Montgomery has only faced the Phillies once in his career, he surrendered five runs on six hits in just four innings of work.
He recorded just two strikeouts in that outing. Furthermore, Philadelphia ranks in the top half of the league this season in strikeout rate.
Pick: Jordan Montgomery Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135)
| | |
Braves vs. Yankees
By D.J. James
Chris Sale might be the leader in the National League Cy Young by season’s end. He looks like he did earlier in his career with a sub-3.00 ERA and xERA. He has an average exit velocity of 85.9 MPH, with a strikeout rate over 30% and walk rate of only 4%. His ground ball rate and hard-hit rate are also exceptional.
He and the Atlanta Braves will face Carlos Rodón and the New York Yankees on Friday. Rodón has a 3.28 ERA and xERA over 4.00. Yes, he has been more than serviceable, but his average exit velocity of over 90 MPH might not get the job done long-term. His hard-hit rate is subpar, as well.
Now, the Yankees have fared well against lefties in June, and seeing Aaron Judge back in the New York lineup is a welcomed sight for both Yankee fans and baseball fans in general. However, their 117 wRC+ did not take place against lefties like Sale.
The Braves hold a 110 wRC+ in June off of lefties. Yes, some crucial injuries have taken place, but even in the last week, they have a 159 wRC+ off of lefties.
Relief pitching is where the Yankees have had most of their issues in June. They have a 4.47 xFIP with a walk rate north of 10%. Meanwhile, the Braves have a 3.52 xFIP in June with a strikeout rate of 28%.
Given that pitching is simply on the side of Atlanta, taking them to win this contest on the road makes sense. Play the Braves from -120 to -135.
Pick: Braves ML (-110)
| | |
Blue Jays vs. Guardians
By Joe Nelson
Toronto took two of three hosting Cleveland last weekend, but the Blue Jays were out-hit in all three games. The Blue Jays went on to lose three straight to Boston at home this week before an off day yesterday to start this road trip.
Toronto is in last place in the AL East as a major disappointment this season and the team has already made a few roster moves to signal playing for the future with a lost 2024 season underway. Cleveland is 20 games above .500 to stay on top of a competitive AL Central with Kansas City and Minnesota playing well.
The Guardians are 134 runs superior to the Blue Jays in run differential for the season, and Cleveland won back-to-back games Tuesday and Wednesday against the AL West leading Mariners. Cleveland has scored 29 runs in the past four games and is 22-7 since May 12 while holding a fantastic 23-9 home record this season.
An elite bullpen has helped the Guardians to a 6-2 record in extra-inning games and veteran Carlos Carrasco has pitched better than his 2-6 record suggests. Carrasco has a 5.80 ERA in 12 starts but his FIP is nearly a run lower than that and so far he has been saddled with just a 65% strand rate.
Carrasco can no longer generate the huge strikeout counts from his peak seasons in Cleveland, but his numbers have improved since a tough first month in 2024, posting a 4.22 FIP since May 1, and his marginal outing in Toronto on Saturday featured some tough breaks allowing five runs on only six hits as the Blue Jays hit .500 with runners in scoring position.
The Blue Jays used six pitchers in that game with Bowden Francis the primary, going four innings. Francis pitched an inning on Wednesday this week and still has a 6.00 ERA, even though he has not allowed a run in his last nine innings, while pitching through significant traffic on the bases.
Trevor Richards hasn't pitched since Monday and is likely to see action tonight, but he rarely pitches more than two innings. While Toronto may also start Yariel Rodriguez, who hasn't pitched at the MLB level since April and had significant command issues earlier this season.
The bullpen advantage for Cleveland should be significant in this game and while Toronto was off yesterday the Blue Jays used six pitchers on Wednesday and five pitchers on Tuesday. With one of the best home records in all of baseball, this should be a redemptive series for the Guardians after taking underserved losses vs. the Blue Jays last weekend.
Pick: Guardians ML (-120)
| | |
