Football may be upon us this weekend, but that hasn't stopped our MLB crew from coming in with two MLB Best Bets for Saturday, September 7.
Our MLB picks and predictions include an over/under and moneyline bet for Rays vs Orioles and Mariners vs Cardinals.
MLB Best Bets & Saturday Picks, Predictions (9/7)
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from the Saturday slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB best bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 4:05 p.m. | |
  | 7:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tony Sartori's Rays vs Orioles Best Bet: All Eyes on the Total
By Tony Sartori
The Baltimore Orioles hand the ball to right-hander Zach Eflin on Saturday and he should serve as a good candidate to back. Eflin is 10-7 through 24 starts this season with a 3.60 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are even stronger as the right-hander boasts a 3.23 xERA and ranks in the top half of the league in xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Entering this game in particularly dominant form, Eflin has surrendered three or fewer runs in six consecutive starts.
He is 5-0 over that stretch with a commanding 2.13 ERA. This success is likely to continue against his former team, considering that the Tampa Bay Rays rank in the bottom six of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG, OPS and home runs.
The good news for Tampa is that right-hander Ryan Pepiot takes the mound. He is 7-6 through 21 starts with a 3.76 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.
His analytics are equally strong as Pepiot ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate.
Pick: Under 8 (-115 | Play to -120)
| |
D.J. James's Mariners vs Cardinals Best Bet: Cardinals Are No Match
By D.J. James
Logan Gilbert and the entire Seattle Mariners’ starting rotation has been red-hot this year. Gilbert maintains a 3.19 ERA and 3.18 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is a tick under 90 MPH with a Hard-Hit Rate in the 41st percentile. He has a 4.7% walk rate against a 26.5% strikeout rate, so his pitching arsenal is fantastic.
His opponent on Saturday will be the St. Louis Cardinals and Kyle Gibson. Gibson is fine. He has a 4.39 ERA against a 4.92 xERA, so he should have some negative regression heading his way. His Average Exit Velocity is 88.4 MPH with a Hard-Hit Rate in the 38th percentile. He may keep the ball on the ground, but his walk rate is 8.9% with a 21.4% strikeout rate.
The Mariners have a 113 wRC+ off of righties in the last month with a 10.4% walk rate and 24.8% strikeout rate.
The Cards have a 108 wRC+, 8.5% walk rate, and 20.1% strikeout rate in the last month.
In relief, the Mariners have a 3.98 xFIP, 8.9% walk rate, and 26.6% strikeout rate in the last month.
St. Louis has a 4.24 xFIP, 9.3% walk rate, and 22.2% strikeout rate.
The Mariners hold an edge in every facet of this matchup and should be much bigger favorites. Look for Gilbert and the Seattle relief staff to hold St. Louis in check.
Pick: Mariners ML (-120 | Play to -150)
| |
