We have a relatively light Major League Baseball slate scheduled Monday, as we only have eight teams in action for four matchups this evening. However, as you would expect, our staff of baseball betting experts still have you covered with four selections for today's matchups, featuring two run line picks, a first five innings total prediction, and a player prop across three different games.
Continue below for our MLB best bets for Monday, September 23.
MLB Best Bets, Picks, Predictions for Sept. 23
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 p.m. | |
  | 7:07 p.m. | |
  | 9:40 p.m. | |
| 9:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Sean Paul's Cubs vs Phillies Best Bet: Philadelphia Run Line
By Sean Paul
One thing to pay attention to in late September baseball games is the “motivation factor.” Which teams are actually present and ready to play rather than checking days off their calendar before heading to a vacation in Cabo?
I’m playing into the motivation factor for the first game of this Phillies vs. Cubs series by snagging the Phillies run line at -1.5 at +115 odds. Philadelphia sits less than a game behind the Dodgers for the first seed in the National League to ensure home field advantage through the NLCS.
The Cubs will trot out Nate Pearson as the opener. He’ll likely go one or two innings (max) before handing it off to Hayden Wesneski or another reliever who can provide some bulk innings. The best option for the Phillies run line is Wesneski pitching a few innings since he enters with a 3.82 ERA and a rough 4.55 FIP. He does the two things bad pitchers typically do — he walks batters (2.87 BB/9) and allows bombs (1.52 HR/9.)
That should be music to the ears of the Phillies bats. They boast the sixth best wRC+ in MLB this month at 114 with a .189 isolated power (third in MLB). Their bats should come energized after the Mets pitching stymied them on Sunday night.
The Phillies will need a strong outing from Aaron Nola, who enters with 3.54 ERA and 4.04 FIP. Similar to Wesneski, Nola faces some real troubles with walks and homers, but has much more upside. He held the Brewers to one run over seven strong innings.
While the Cubs offense ranks top-10 in wRC+ in September, they got held to three or fewer runs in two of their three games against the Nationals last week. We’ll see which version of Nola shows up. If it’s the good one, then I feel great about this run line play hitting.
I’m banking on the Phillies turning around their minor September skid — losing four of their past five to the Brewers and Mets. I feel like facing a non-playoff team is the perfect recipe to get back on track.
Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+120)
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Cody Goggin's Red Sox vs Blue Jays Best Bet: Toronto F5 Spread
By Cody Goggin
This Boston Red Sox offense has come to a screeching halt as of late. After getting off to a hot start in the second half of the season, they now rank 28th in wRC+ over the last 30 days with a mark of just 79. They are striking out 27.8% of the time over the last 30 days, which is the 2nd-highest mark in the league in this stretch, while also ranking 26th in walk rate.
Today they’ll take on the veteran right-hander Chris Bassitt. Bassitt has a 4.16 ERA, 4.41 xERA, and 4.18 xFIP over 166⅔ innings pitched this season. Bassitt has seen an uptick in his WHIP this season relative to years past, but he still has a league average strikeout rate, and ranks in the 62nd percentile in hard hit rate allowed and 71st percentile in average exit velocity allowed.
On the other side of this pitching matchup is Tanner Houck. Houck has a 3.21 ERA on the season with a 4.12 xERA and 3.53 xFIP over 173⅔ innings pitched. Houck has faded over the second half of this season, posting a 4.61 ERA since the break compared to 2.54 before it. His FIP and xFIP both support this move in ERA as he has a 4.60 FIP and 4.29 xFIP in the second half compared to 2.68 and 3.16 in the first half.
Over the last 30 days, Toronto’s offense has a wRC+ of 105, which ranks 11th in the league in this stretch. They are 11th in wOBA, 16th in SLG, and ninth in OBP during this time. They also have the eighth-lowest strikeout rate in the league over this period.
I believe the Blue Jays are simply playing better baseball right now. Chris Bassitt is a solid pitcher, and while he hasn’t been as good this season as the past, he is facing a faltering Boston offense that has been among the worst in the league as of late.
Toronto’s offense is an above-average unit right now and Tanner Houck has not been as sharp in the second half of this season. I think that Toronto may be able to score a few runs on Houck and get out to an early lead. My favorite bet on this game would be to take the Blue Jays on the first five run line at +120. I think Toronto will be able to carry a lead through the first five innings.
Pick: Blue Jays F5 -1.5 (+120)
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Tony Sartori's Giants vs Diamondbacks Best Bet: Hayden Birdsong Player Prop
By Tony Sartori
Right-hander Hayden Birdsong is slated to take the mound for the San Francisco Giants on Monday evening, and we are going to look to back him in the prop market. This season, Birdsong ranks in the 75th percentile in whiff rate and 72nd percentile in strikeout rate.
You can currently find his strikeout prop at 4.5, a total he has surpassed in nine of his 14 starts. This success is likely to continue against the Arizona Diamondbacks, a team that possesses a 25% strikeout rate and 27.3% whiff rate through 16 combined career plate appearances against Birdsong.
He collected four strikeouts against Arizona in a limited three-inning appearance earlier this month, and considering that it's safe to assume he goes longer in this outing, then an extra strikeout shouldn't be difficult to find.
Pick: Hayden Birdsong Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-106)
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Justin Perri's Giants vs Diamondbacks Best Bet: First Five Innings Over
By Justin Perri
Hayden Birdsong takes the mound in a game that has no meaning to the Giants aside from playing spoiler and individual player accomplishments. Of course, there is also team fortitude, character building of young professionals, and the pride aspect, but the Diamondbacks are playing for a chance to avoid the Brewers and play the Padres in the first round of the playoffs, maybe even with a chance to catch San Diego in this last week.
So, with that said, there's plenty of reason why the Snakes are looking to score and win, and the Giants should be playing loose, fun baseball. Now, back to Birdsong, he looked great earlier this season when he burst on the scene, throwing to a 3-0 record without allowing more than three runs to an opponent in his first six starts. That all fell apart.
Since the start of August, Birdsong has a 6.40 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP, which has brought his season numbers to 4.74 and 1.39, respectively. He isn't getting strike calls on his curve ball like he used to, and in a pitching park like Arizona, which is second only to Colorado this year in run scoring boost per StatCast, it looks like there's a good chance he gets beat up. The Diamondbacks already got to Birdsong earlier this month for three runs, and I think they'll eat him up today too.
On the other side is Eduardo Rodriguez, a lefty who is facing a SF team with a 105 wRC+ against southpaws on the season, and who owns a 6.05 ERA in Arizona to go along with a 1.55 home WHIP. Not great! I expect both these pitchers to give up runs, and like pretty much any other type of total bet you can find, my favorite is the first five innings line.
Arizona is 47-27-1 O/U at home. San Francisco is 46-26-5 O/U on the road. This is a great spot in the arid conditions to see some runs in a game that should be more competitive, and high scoring than most might expect. If the -130 juice worries you, over 5 at -105 with a possible push scenario is fine, I just happen to project a somewhat high probability of exactly five runs being scored in the first five innings today, which gives more value to the heavier line at the better number. Not a huge difference, though. Good luck!
Pick: F5 Total Over 4.5 (-130)
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