MLB Playoffs Best Bets Monday | Predictions, Odds, Picks for Diamondbacks vs Dodgers
Keith Birmingham/MediaNews Group/Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images. Pictured: Bobby Miller
MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 6:07 p.m. | |
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  | 9:07 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Phillies vs. Braves
By Tony Sartori
Zack Wheeler in the playoffs? At plus-money? Alright, I'll bite.
With a 2.55 ERA and 0.73 WHIP through seven career playoff games, Wheeler kept it rolling this October with a dominant outing against the Miami Marlins. In that game, he allowed just one run over 6 2/3 innings en route to a 4-1 win.
He has been tremendous over the past few months, posting a 7-2 record with a 3.05 ERA and 0.95 WHIP across his past 16 starts. Wheeler's underlying metrics do not make me worry about regression given that he ranks in the 87th percentile or higher in xERA, average exit velocity, BB% and Barrel%.
While the Braves boast the best lineup in baseball, the right-hander has done a terrific job against them. Over his past 14 starts against Atlanta, Wheeler is 6-3 with a 2.46 ERA and 0.94 WHIP.
Left-hander Max Fried takes the mound for the Braves, and he is every bit as good as Wheeler. Add in playing in front of the home fans, I can see bookmakers making Atlanta the favorite. But north of -160?
That line seems too wide, especially when Philly basically matches up with Atlanta in every hitting category across the board if you look at their results versus left-handers over the second-half of the campaign.
Pick: Phillies ML (+140)
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Phillies vs. Braves
Rob Thomson's extremely aggressive bullpen management from Game 1 has driven down this pitching outs line, but I expect the Phillies' ace to have a lot more leeway in Monday's game with the Phillies playing from ahead in the series. Wheeler now has the lowest postseason WHIP in MLB history with a minimum of 40 innings, lower than Mariano Rivera and Sandy Koufax.
Wheeler isn't a pitcher who relies heavily on strikeouts to generate outs and thus shouldn't work too many deep counts. His fastball velocity was the highest it has been all season in his Wild Card Round start against the Marlins, and I'd expect five innings from him at a minimum in Game 2.
He made three regular season starts against the Braves, including two in September. Even in his poor outing that saw a blowup, he reached five innings. He ranks in the top 10 in Location+ among starters in MLB and has very low walk rates, so don't expect him to waste pitches giving out Braves walks, either.
Thomson was concerned with a lefty against the top of the Braves' order in Game 1, but Wheeler's track record and right-handedness should help him stay in for a few more outs here.
I'd bet this over 14.5 to -175.
Pick: Zack Wheeler Over 14.5 Outs Recorded (-155)
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Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers
The Diamondbacks may have stolen game one with a clearly hurt Clayton Kershaw on the mound for Los Angeles, but things are about to chance when the Dodgers send their best pitcher to the mound.
Bobby Miller posted a 3.45 xERA and a 3.75 xFIP in 22 starts this season. If you're an opposing hitter and you're not ready for 99+ mph, then you have no chance against Miller.
He's in the 98th percentile among MLB starting pitchers for fastball velocity (averaging 98.9 mph), and then he brings a sinker averaging 98.7 mph with 19 inches of run on it.
Miller has a Stuff+ rating of 123, which is fifth best in baseball with his fastball having a Stuff+ rating of 130; only Spencer Strider has a better rating on his fastball, that’s how good it is.
The Diamondbacks against pitches that were 98 mph or faster have a -5 run value and just a .315 xwOBA.
Zac Gallen really wasn’t that impressive against the Brewers in the Wild Card Round, allowing two runs on five hits while also walking three guys. Gallen was the Cy Young favorite for a decent stretch this season, but the reality is that he’s a negative regression candidate with his xERA over a half run higher than his actual ERA.
The thing about Gallen is, when he gets hit, he gets hit hard. He’s in the third percentile for average exit velocity allowed and fifth percentile for hard hit rate allowed, while also allowing a 9.2% barrel rate.
He’s faced the Dodgers twice this season, once on Opening Day where he gave up five runs, and on August 28th when he allowed six earned runs and four home runs in Dodger Stadium.
Pick: Dodgers F5 ML (-140)
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Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers
By D.J. James
Bobby Miller was phenomenal as a rookie and particularly in the second half. In 80 1/3 innings, he held a 3.36 ERA with 77 strikeouts against 17 walks.
On the season, he had a 47.7% groundball rate with a 23.6% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate. His ERA was 3.76 with a 3.45 xERA, so his results should have even been more favorable. In addition, he had a 6% barrel rate, 88.3 mph average exit velocity and 37.6% hard-hit rate.
Zac Gallen pieced together a great outing to finish off the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 2 of the Wild Card Round. Gallen had a 4.03 ERA in the second half over 91 1/3 innings. His groundball rate was 42.3% with a barrel rate of 9.2%. His average exit velocity was 91.5 mph with a 46.2% hard-hit rate. This led to a 3.47 ERA against a 4.18 xERA. His strikeout rate was 25.6%, and his walk rate was 5.6% this season.
The Dodgers crushed righties this season. Since August 1 off of righties, they held a 122 wRC+ and .815 OPS. Their walk rate was 9.1% against a sub-20% strikeout rate. They had nine batters eclipsing a .320 xwOBA with two over .400 (Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman).
The D'backs held a .684 OPS and 86 wRC+ in that same timeframe off of righties.
The D'backs also had a 4.42 xFIP in relief against L.A.’s 3.60.
The Dodgers have an edge in each of these major facets of the game. They can be played to -175.
Pick: Dodgers ML (-148)
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