The calendar has flipped to September, which means MLB playoff races are heating up. With 15 games on the Sunday slate, our staff of MLB betting experts has looked over the odds and identified three MLB best bets for Red Sox vs Tigers and Padres vs Rays.
There are multiple picks to dive into, so let's get to our MLB best bets and predictions for Sunday, September 1.
MLB Best Bets and Sunday Predictions (9/1)
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from the Sunday slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB best bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:40 p.m. | |
  | 1:40 p.m. | |
| 1:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
William Boor's Red Sox vs Tigers Best Bet: Trust Boston's Bats
By William Boor
Simply put, I'm fading the rookie.
Tigers starter Ty Madden is set to make just his second career after debuting against the White Sox on August 26. In that outing, Madden gave up two runs (one earned) on four hits over five innings. He also struck out two and walked three.
That's a solid line, but his 4.59 xERA (1.80 ERA) and .273 xBA show that he received some lucky results. The Red Sox, who average 4.86 runs per game (sixth in MLB), are much more potent than the White Sox. Madden got away with some mistakes in his debut and I'm betting he won't be quite as lucky this time around.
Boston starter Cooper Criswell isn't great (4.34 ERA, 4.23 xERA), but won't be facing an elite lineup and has thrown well in each of his past two outings (two earned runs over eight innings).
If Criswell can keep the Tigers to three or fewer runs — not an insane ask — I think Boston's offense will take care of the rest.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (-118)
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Alex Kolodziej's Padres vs Rays Best Bet: Bet This System Play
We have a 61% PRO System that's perfectly tailored to the Padres vs. Rays matchup.
The Average AL vs. NL PRO System has found that American League teams, playing at home with win percentages ranging from 47% to 53%, have a 61% success rate against National League teams. This trend activates in the middle of the season and highlights undervalued AL teams.
It's all about locking in a good number here with Rays +110. A 61% success rate equates to a fair moneyline price of roughly -150.
It's September and the market is efficient. The Rays aren't 60 cents off the market, but historically teams in this spot fly under the radar, so they're a bargain at their current moneyline odds.
Pick: Rays Moneyline (+108)
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Tony Sartori's Padres vs Rays Best Bet: Back the Pitchers
By Tony Sartori
We have a great pitching duel in this matchup as Dylan Cease goes against Ryan Pepiot. Cease is 12-10 with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP through 28 starts this season.
His underlying metrics are even stronger as the right-hander boasts a 3.33 xERA and ranks in the 62nd percentile or higher in xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate. That success is likely to continue against Tampa, a team that ranks in the bottom 10 of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs.
Meanwhile, Pepiot is 7-6 through 20 starts with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. He ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate.
Finally, both bullpens rank in the top half of the league in ERA.
Pick: Under 7 (-102)
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