There are eight games on the Thursday, September 12, MLB slate and our baseball betting experts have found today's MLB best bets. They're targeting three games for their expert Thursday picks, so let's dive into Brewers vs Giants and more!
MLB Best Bets & Thursday Night Moneyline Picks — 9/12
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from the Thursday slate of MLB games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB best bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 9:45 p.m. | |
  | 7:15 p.m. | |
  | 1:10 p.m. | |
| 1:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tony Sartori's Rockies vs Tigers Best Bet: Detroit Should Dominate
By Tony Sartori
The Tampa Bay Rays will hand the ball to right-hander Ryan Feltner on Thursday, and he should be a good fade candidate. Through 26 starts this season, Feltner is 2-10 with a 4.96 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally poor as the right-hander ranks in the bottom third of the league in xERA, xBA and strikeout rate. Meanwhile, the Detroit Tigers will hand the ball to left-hander Tarik Skubal.
The clear runaway in the AL Cy Young Award race, Skubal is 16-4 through 28 starts this season with a 2.53 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. His analytics are equally dominant as the southpaw ranks in the 86th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate, walk rate and hard-hit rate.
Not only is it a clear starting pitching advantage for the Tigers, but their bullpen also outranks Colorado's in ERA, FIP and xFIP.
Pick: Tigers -1.5 (-110)
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Nick Martin's Rockies vs Tigers Best Bet: Target the Tigers
By Nick Martin
The Tigers are massive favorites as they look to win their fifth straight game and will put ace Tarik Skubal on the mound against the Colorado Rockies.
A matchup versus Colorado is about as good as it gets for Skubal, who has essentially locked up the AL Cy Young Award, but could really grab a stranglehold this afternoon. Since the All-Star Break, the Rockies hold a wRC+ of just 57 against left-handed pitching. They have struck-out 30.6% of the time in that span and hold the worst BB/K ratio in the league against lefties.
Skubal has pitched to a 2.35 ERA and a 2.68 xFIP in his past five outings. He has been hard-hit 31% of the time in that span and has also struck out 31% of batters.
Ryan Feltner gets a much tougher matchup versus the Tigers' red-hot lineup. Over the past 30 days, Detroit ranks seventh in wRC+ and ninth in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching.
Feltner has been significantly more effective away from Coors Field this season (as you'd expect) as he holds a 3.99 ERA and a 1.29 on the road. Still, he holds an xFIP of 4.52 on the road with a K-BB% of 11.6. In three starts since Feltner returned from the IL, his zone-contact rate has climbed to 89.1%, while his swinging strike rate is down to 8.9%.
The Tigers bullpen has pitched to a league-best 1.97 ERA over the past month, while the Rockies' relief staff has struggled to a 4.47 ERA.
This sets up as a good spot to back the Tigers as they continue a surprising push for the final wild-card spot. You could lay the -250 for them to win straight up, but I prefer backing the run line to -125.
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D.J. James' Rays vs Guardians Best Bet: Trust Tampa Bay
By D.J. James
Ryan Pepiot has been a great addition to the Tampa Bay Rays’ pitching staff. He has a 3.66 ERA against a 3.83 xERA. His ground-ball rate ranks in the 15th percentile and he has an Average Exit Velocity around 89 mph, but his Hard-Hit Rate is above average. His strikeout rate is 25.3%, his walk rate is 8.6% and since he manufactures so many whiffs, he can be effective.
His opponent Thursday will be Gavin Williams and the Cleveland Guardians. Williams has been weak with a 5.25 ERA and a 4.13 xERA. Sure, positive regression could be coming his way, but he allows a tremendous amount of hard contact, walks plenty and doesn't necessarily keep the ball on the ground.
Tampa Bay’s lineup has an 81 wRC+ off of righties in the past month with a 7% walk rate and a 26.3% strikeout rate.
Cleveland has a 94 wRC+, an 8.6% walk rate and a 20.3% strikeout rate.
Tampa Bay may look worse, but Cleveland’s lineup hasn't been strong. Since Pepiot is a much more reliable starter, he has a major edge over Williams.
Both bullpens have struggled over the past month and are pretty similiar overall.
Look for Pepiot to continue his strong approach on the bump and take down the Guardians. Bet Tampa Bay on the moneyline from +116 to -110.
Pick: Rays Moneyline (+116)
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William Boor's Brewers vs Giants Best Bet: Back the Brewers
By William Boor
As the Brewers start gearing up for October and the Giants start dreaming of vacation, I'll back the side with the better offense and more motivation.
Neither starter has thrown the ball especially well of late, but I do think Frankie Montas has a slight edge over Hayden Birdsong. Montas, who has pitched to a 4.61 xERA this season, gave up three runs over six innings in his most recent start. Those numbers aren't exceptional, but he also struck out 10, perhaps a sign that improved form is coming.
Meanwhile, Birdsong has pitched to a 4.90 xERA this season and has given up seven runs over 6 2/3 innings across his past two starts. The 23-year-old is still learning how to pitch in the Majors and ranks in the second percentile in hard-hit rate and the first percentile in walk rate. It's impossible to succeed long term with those metrics, so I'll back the Brewers and expect them to put up a few early runs.
Milwaukee is averaging 4.82 runs per game compared to the Giants' 4.26. This game may not be the most enticing on Thursday's board, but the edge is clearly with the Brewers.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline (-138)
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