MLB Best Bets, Predictions for Thursday (8/8)
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:10 p.m. | |
  | 7:07 p.m. | |
  | 12:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
There are numerous MLB games on the slate for Thursday, August 8, and our MLB betting experts have identified the MLB best bets today.
After looking over all the MLB odds, our experts wrote up their MLB best bets and predictions for Thursday and shared them below. So, continue reading for today's MLB best bets.
Tony Sartori's Giants vs Nationals Best Bet: Herz Has Edge Over Harrison?
By Tony Sartori
Washington is a live underdog in this spot. San Francisco possesses the slightly stronger lineup, which is why the Giants are favored, but both teams hover right around the league average in nearly every hitting category.
Subsequently, I think that the pitching gap between these teams — on Thursday — is larger than the offensive gap.
DJ Herz outranks Kyle Harrison in WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. The majority of those differences are far greater than the statistical gap between the two lineups.
We are also catching a particularly good price on the underdogs (+110) at FanDuel, where the line is 10 cents longer than the rest of the market at the time of writing.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline (+110)
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William Boor's Reds vs Marlins Best Bet: Hunter Greene on Heater
By William Boor
How can you not bet on Hunter Greene these days? The hard-throwing right hander has given up one earned run or fewer in seven of his past eight starts and has held his opponents scoreless in three straight outings (20 innings).
Will Greene eventually give up a run? Of course. However, his advanced metrics show that this hot stretch isn't a fluke as Greene's 2.83 ERA is backed by his 2.92 xERA. Additionally, his .187 xBA is in the top 3% of all pitchers.
Need more evidence that he's putting together a Cy Young Award caliber season? Well, Greene ranks in the 82nd percentile or higher when it comes to fastball velocity, average exit velocity, whiff rate, strikeout percentage, barrel rate and hard-hit percentage.
That's quite a list. And that's exactly why I'm backing Greene and the Reds on Thursday.
The moneyline is a bit steep, but I have faith in a Reds' offense that has scored five or more runs in five of its past nine games.
Five runs would be great, but with the way Greene has been throwing lately, Cincinnati may just need to score two or three to cover the run line.
Back the Reds on the road in Miami.
Pick: Reds -1.5 (-104)
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D.J. James' Orioles vs Blue Jays Best Bet: All Signs Point to Baltimore
By D.J. James
Dean Kremer hasn't been sharp in Orioles' starting rotation. The veteran righty has a 4.39 ERA and a 5.02 xERA, so regression could be headed in his direction. He has an 88.9 mph average exit velocity and a slightly above average hard-hit rate. His walk rate and strikeout rate are nothing to write home about, either.
His opponent, however, will be Kevin Gausman. This veteran hasn't been good this year and his performance has been a bit of a letdown for Toronto's fans. Gausman's ERA is 4.56 and his xERA is over 5.00 His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are far below average, even though he doesn't walk as many as Kremer.
Now, the Baltimore lineup has also been a bit more potent this year — especially against right-handed pitching over the past month. During that span, the Orioles have a 122 wRC+, a 10.1% walk rate and a 22.8% strikeout rate.
Toronto has been above average with a 111 wRC+, but also has a 6.2% walk rate and a 21.1% strikeout rate.
In relief, the O’s have a 3.99 xFIP in the past month with a strikeout rate over 23% and a walk rate below 9%.
Meanwhile, Toronto's bullpen has an xFIP over 5.00 since July 8 — only the Chicago White Sox are worse.
Look for the Orioles to have more offensive success in this matchup, then close the game down in relief. Bet Baltimore to -140.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline (-120)
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