The MLB schedule is packed for Wednesday, September 11, and our baseball staff has come through with three MLB best bets for Guardians vs White Sox, Mets vs Blue Jays and Braves vs Nationals. Those latter two games have MLB postseason implications for the NL wild-card race.
Check out our MLB best bets, prop, and picks for Wednesday, September 11, below.
MLB Best Bets, Props & Picks for Wednesday — 9/11
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from the Wednesday slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB best bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:45 p.m. | |
  | 2:10 p.m. | |
  | 3:07 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
D.J. James' Guardians vs White Sox Best Bet: Bet the Under
By D.J. James
Davis Martin might be the best pitcher for the Chicago White Sox lately. He has a 3.29 ERA against a 4.68 xERA, but that's mainly due to limited appearances and a 9.1% walk rate. He has a well above average ground-ball rate and an Average Exit Velocity under 88 mph across eight appearances. His Hard-Hit Rate is also under 39%.
His opponent will be Matt Boyd and the Cleveland Guardians. Boyd has also been sharp in limited outings. He has a 2.20 ERA and a 3.01 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is under 89 mph and his Hard-Hit Rate is 39.5%. His walk rate is under 5% and he has a strikeout rate of 24.1%.
Seeing as the White Sox are on pace for one of the worst records in MLB history, Boyd should be fine. In fact, the White Sox have a 38 wRC+, a 5.5% walk rate and a 25.6% strikeout rate against lefties in the past month.
The Guardians have a 93 wRC+, a 9% walk rate and a 20.1% strikeout rate. They haven't been too sharp, either, so if Martin limits walks, he should be primed for another decent start.
Both the White Sox have Guardians have been about average in relief over the past month with xFIPs just above 4.00.
All in all, this signals an under. Neither team is hitting well, so bet the under from 8.5 to 7.5.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-110)
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Tony Sartori's Mets vs Blue Jays Best Bet: Back Manaea
By Tony Sartori
The New York Mets hand the ball to left-hander Sean Manaea, who should be a good candidate to back. Through 28 starts this season, Manaea is 11-5 with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally strong as the southpaw ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. Specifically, we are going to target Manaea in the prop market as he ranks in the 60th percentile or higher in both whiff and strikeout rates.
You can find his strikeout prop at 5.5, a total the left-hander has surpassed in three of his past four starts. That success is likely to continue against the Toronto Blue Jays, a team that possesses a 26.3% strikeout rate and a 24.1% whiff rate through 57 combined career plate appearances against Manaea.
Pick: Sean Manaea Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-105)
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William Boor's Braves vs Nationals Best Bet: Braves Have Betting Value
By William Boor
Not only does Atlanta need this win, it's also sending the better starting pitcher to the mound.
The Braves, in the middle of a battle for a NL wild-card spot, will send Max Fried to the mound against Jake Irvin and the Washington Nationals.
Fried gave up one unearned run over seven innings against the Blue Jays in his most recent start and has given up three earned runs or fewer in five straight starts. I expect that strong stretch to continue as Fried has pitched to a 3.72 xERA this season and ranks in the 89th percentile in barrel rate. Additionally, the 30-year-old lefty ranks in the 96th percentile in ground-ball rate and should be able to generate a bunch of ground-ball out against the Nationals.
Conversely, Irvin has pitched to a 4.28 xERA and a .254 xBA this season. Teams have hit Irvin hard all season, but his struggles have been amplified lately. The 27-year-old has given up 13 runs over his past two starts (9 2/3 innings) and has surrendered four or more runs in five of his past seven starts.
Atlanta boasts a big advantage on the mound and knows it needs to keep winning if it wants to play in October. With an edge both on the field and in motivation, I'm backing the Braves.
Pick: Braves Moneyline (-168)
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