Friday on the Diamond starts familiarly, as the Cubs host their usual Friday afternoon at Wrigley game against the Blue Jays.
Our staff of MLB betting analysts has cooked up three MLB best betsfor today, including predictions and picks for Aug. 16.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 2:20 p.m. | |
  | 6:40 p.m. | |
  | 6:50 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tony Sartori's Blue Jays vs Cubs Best Bet: Fade Candidate Kyle Hendricks
By Tony Sartori
Right-hander Kyle Hendricks takes the mound for Chicago, and he should be a good fade candidate. Hendricks is 3-10 this season with a fade-worthy 6.60 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally poor, as the right-hander ranks in the 17th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA and strikeout rate. These woes will likely continue against Toronto, a team Hendricks is 0-1 against with a 5.40 ERA through two career meetings.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays hand the ball to right-hander Yariel Rodriguez. He outranks Hendricks in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, strikeout rate and barrel rate.
Toronto boasts a pitching advantage and a hitting advantage. This year, the Blue Jays are lapping the Cubs in hits per game, BA, OBP and OPS.
Pick: Blue Jays ML (+100)
- Use our Caesars Sportsbook promo code to get the most out of your Blue Jays vs Cubs action.
| | |
Andrew O'Connor-Watts' Nationals vs Phillies Best Bet: Phillies Are Hitting Lefties
The way the Phillies hit lefties could get us over the total alone, as we saw on Thursday against Mitch Parker. Their +122 wRC+ is the best in the Majors, and they also rank sixth in ISO.
Meanwhile, it's no secret that Nationals pitcher Patrick Corbin is a major fade candidate with his 5.9 xERA.
The trickier factor will be on the Nationals side, who are offensively below league-average. However, Phillies starter Aaron Nola hasn’t been nearly as dominant lately. In his last three starts, Nola has just a 4.45 xFIP, and I think we could see the Nats' young bats get a few runs off of him.
I would bet this up to 10 runs but reduce risk past 9.5.
Pick: Over 9 (-115)
| | |
D.J. James's Diamondbacks vs Rays Best Bet: Snakes Kicking Into Gear
By D.J. James
Ryne Nelson has done decently enough in the Arizona Diamondbacks' starting rotation. The 26-year-old righty has a 4.51 ERA and an xERA just over 4.00. His groundball rate is league average, and even though he may tend to allow some hard contact, he rarely walks anyone (5.8%).
His opponents are Ryan Pepiot and the Tampa Bay Rays. Pepiot has a 3.92 ERA and 3.87 xERA, so he has pitched about as expected. Pepiot will yield some hard contact like Nelson, but his groundball rate ranks in the 16th percentile. Pepiot misses more bats with a reasonable whiff rate and strikeout rate above 26%, but his walk rate is nearly 9%.
Now, the D-Backs are slowly crawling up the standings, and a big reason is how well they have hit righties. The Snakes have a 152 wRC+, 10.1% walk rate, and 18.5% strikeout rate in the last month off of righties. Ketel Marte has been battling an ankle injury, but otherwise, this offense is kicking into gear at the right time.
The Rays have an 87 wRC+, 9.3% walk rate, and 25.6% strikeout rate against righties in the past month. They were sellers at the deadline, so the lineup does not look like it did in mid-July.
In relief, Arizona has a 3.91 xFIP, while Tampa Bay has a 3.16 xFIP in the last month. Since the D-Backs still have arms to throw behind Nelson’s start, this should not be as looming of a factor.
Take the D-Backs on the moneyline from -104 to -130.
Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-107)
- Maximize your Nationals vs Phillies action with our BetRivers promo code.
| | |
