MLB Best Bets, Expert Picks: Sunday Bets for Phillies vs Marlins, Braves vs Mets (May 12)
(Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) Pictured: Bryce Elder
All 30 MLB teams are in action on Mother's Day, but our MLB betting experts are focused on the NL East. With eyes on Phillies vs. Marlins and Braves vs. Mets, our MLB best bets and picks are below.
MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:40 p.m. | |
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Phillies vs. Marlins
By Bill Marzano
There is an old saying, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" and that's exactly my approach here. The Philadelphia Phillies own the best record in the league and show no signs of slowing down. Meanwhile, the Marlins own the worst record in baseball and aren't showing any signs of improvement.
Philadelphia has won nine of its past 10 and is averaging just under eight runs per game over its past eight contests. The Marlins have 31 losses on the season and 26 of them have been by two or more runs. There are several Phillies, including Alec Bohm (.455), J.T. Realmuto (.500), Edmundo Sosa (.400), Kyle Schwarber (.300) and Bryce Harper (.273), who have hit Braxton Garrett really well, so bet Philadelphia to go over its team total and score at least five runs..
Pick: Phillies Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (+100)
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Braves vs. Mets
By Tony Sartori
Right-hander Bryce Elder takes the mound for Atlanta and should be a good fade candidate. Through three starts this season, Elder possesses a 5.28 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP.
His underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is unlikely. The right-hander ranks in the seventh percentile or lower in xERA, xBA and hard-hit rate. Specifically, we are going to fade Elder in the strikeout department as he ranks in the 13th percentile in chase rate and the ninth percentile in strikeout rate.
Those woes are likely to continue against New York, a team he possesses a 5.27 ERA against through three career meetings. Elder recorded three or fewer strikeouts in two of those outings.
Meanwhile, the Mets are one of the best teams at avoiding strikeouts this season as they rank fourth in strikeout rate.
Pick: Bryce Elder Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125 | Play to +120)
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