We have a loaded 11-game, Major League Baseball slate scheduled for this Monday. Our MLB betting experts have locked in bets for four of today's matchups, including a player prop pick for Braves–Twins, as well as a trio of total predictions for Yankees–Nationals, Blue Jays–Red Sox, and Rays–Mariners.
Read below for our MLB best bets for Monday, August 26.
MLB Best Bets for Monday, August 26
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:45 p.m. | |
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
  | 7:40 p.m. | |
  | 9:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Cody Goggin's Yankees vs Nationals Best Bet
By Cody Goggin
Tonight the AL-leading New York Yankees take on the Washington Nationals. Nestor Cortes will get the nod for the Yankees tonight. The left-hander has a 4.00 ERA this season but a 3.59 xERA. Cortes ranks in the 49th percentile in strikeout rate and an impressive 93rd percentile in walk rate.
The Nationals are 22nd in wRC+ and wOBA this season. They are 26th in both of these categories against left-handed pitching this year, as that has been a struggle of theirs. Washington is 28th in hard hit rate this season, 28th in average exit velocity, and 30th in barrel rate. They also hit the 3rd-highest rate of ground balls, which has not helped them at all with these weak contact numbers.
New York has had one of the best offenses in baseball this year. They are 1st in wRC+, 1st in wOBA, 1st in OBP, 2nd in SLG, and 2nd in ISO.
Today they take on rookie Mitchell Parker, who has a 4.26 ERA and a 4.40 xERA this season in 122.2 innings. Parker ranks in the 18th percentile in whiff rate and 31st percentile in strikeout rate. He is in the 78th percentile in walk rate, but is also facing the most patient team in the league today.
The Yankees have not been as strong against left-handers this season, but neither has Washington. New York has the better offense in this game by such a wide margin that I am not worried about them being able to hit Parker.
Cortes is a solid pitcher as his underlying metrics have suggested. He will have a relatively easy matchup against Washington today and I think he will be able to turn in a quality start.
New York is a heavy favorite for the full game, as they should be. My favorite way to play this would be by taking the Yankees at -0.5 on the run line over the first five innings, as I have faith in them getting out to an early lead and Cortes being able to navigate the Nationals’ lineup.
Pick: Yankees F5 -0.5 (-135)
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Nick Martin's Blue Jays vs Red Sox Best Bet
By Nick Martin
Over the last five starts Berrios has pitched to an ERA of 2.70 with an xFIP of 3.62. Opponents are batting just .214 against him in that span and hold an xBA of .233, and his stuff is grading out more comparably to last season.
Nick Pivetta has struggled to an ERA of 7.50 over the last five starts and been hard-hit 46% of the time. His stuff still grades out extremely well and he holds a 4.15 xFIP in those outings, so we should see some kind of bounce-back soon, but these two starters look comparable right now.
The Blue Jays and Red Sox recent splits versus right-handed pitching have also been quite even. The Red Sox hold a fifth ranked wRC+ against righties since the All-Star break, while the Jays rank seventh. Toronto has struck-out far less often though (21.1%), and holds a hard-hit rate of 34.8%.
These two sides will complete eight innings of a game postponed on June 27 prior to this matchup. Depending on which relievers are used in the remainder of that matchup I might play Toronto to win the full-game at +135 in the night game.
For now, my favorite play is backing the Jays to win the first five innings at anything better than +125.
Pick: Blue Jays F5 ML (+125)
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Tony Sartori's Braves vs Twins Best Bet
By Tony Sartori
Minnesota hands the ball to right-hander Bailey Ober on Monday evening, and he should be a good candidate to back. Ober is 12-5 through 24 starts this season with a 3.54 ERA and 0.99 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally dominant as the right-hander ranks in the top quarter of the league in xERA, xBA and average exit velocity. Specifically, we are going to back Ober in the prop market as he also ranks in the 75th percentile or higher in chase, whiff and strikeout rates.
You can currently find his strikeout total at 5.5, a number he has surpassed in eight of his past 11 starts. That success is likely to continue against Atlanta, a team that possesses a fade-worthy 26.1% strikeout rate through 23 combined career plate appearances against Ober.
Furthermore, the Braves rank 26th this season in strikeout rate when facing right-handed pitching.
Pick: Bailey Ober Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-150)
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John Feltman's Rays vs Mariners Best Bet
By John Feltman
The Rays head out to Seattle after suffering a series loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Mariners are coming off a series victory against the San Francisco Giants.
Ryan Pepiot gets the ball for the Rays tonight and has arguably been the best starting pitcher all season. Pepiot has dealt with some injuries this year, but is coming off back-to-back strong starts.
He gets a juicy matchup against a Seattle Mariners offense that has been pitiful all season. Despite making additions at the trade deadline, they haven’t been able to get out of their own way offensively.
The Mariners have turned the page to next season after firing Manager Scott Servais last week, and I think they’re at a true disadvantage on the mound tonight.
Bryce Miller is regarded as an up and coming pitcher, but his numbers are alarming. He has an excellent walk-rate, but gives up a lot of hard contact, especially through the air.
The Rays offense isn’t much better than the Mariners, but I’ll put my faith in Pepiot and the Rays offense to combat the flaws in Miller’s arsenal here. There is no reason to be backing the Mariners right now.
Pick: Rays F5 ML (+110)
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