The American League Division Series takes center stage on Thursday, October 10, and our MLB betting experts have come through with MLB best bets,picks and predictions for Guardians vs Tigers and Royals vs Yankees.
MLB Best Bets, Prop Picks & ALDS Predictions — 10/10
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:08 p.m. | |
  | 8:08 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tony Sartori's Guardians vs Tigers Best Bet: Fade Jake Rogers
By Tony Sartori
The Cleveland Guardians hand the ball to right-hander Tanner Bibee in Game 4, and he should serve as a good candidate to back. Through 31 starts, the right-hander posted a 12-8 record with a 3.47 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.
His underlying metrics were equally strong as Bibee ranked in the top half of the league in xERA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Bibee's biggest strength is his ability to retire hitters via strikeout. That is also catcher Jake Rogers' biggest weakness, which is why I want to sell high on him in Game 4.
Rogers has recorded at least one hit in four of his first five postseason games, but this is a bad matchup for the catcher. He ranked in the bottom quarter of the league in both whiff and strikeout rates, which are Bibee's greatest strengths.
Subsequently, Rogers possesses a .174 xBA and 44.4% strikeout rate through nine career plate appearances against Bibee.
Pick: Jake Rogers Under 0.5 Hits -140 (Play to -145)
Billy Ward's Yankees vs Royals NRFI Pick
By Billy Ward
In a game where the 7.5 run total could probably be described as “optimistic” – it’s fallen a full run after opening at 8.5 – we’re getting a pretty reasonable price on the NRFI.
Both starters — Gerrit Cole and Michael Wacha — in this game have first time through the order ERAs under 2.00, so what offense we do see is likely to come later in the game.
The other big factor here is the continued playoff struggles of Aaron Judge. He’s 1-for-11 with a single so far in this series.
That shifts the production of the Yankees lineup to the middle, where Giancarlo Stanton lurks. He’s been their most productive hitter (by far) in the postseason, but is slated to bat fifth.
That probably means we won’t have to worry about him until the second inning.
