It's Saturday, August 31 and what better way to kick off the weekend than with some MLB best bets?
Our MLB staff compiled three MLB best bets including two Saturday picks and predictions for Red Sox vs Tigers, as well as a bet for Padres vs Rays.
MLB Best Bets & Saturday Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from the Saturday slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific Red Sox-Tigers best bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:10 p.m. | |
| 6:10 p.m. | |
  | 4:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Alex Kolodziej's Padres vs Rays Best Bet: Rays Shine in the Trop
It's simply a good price grab on Tampa Bay Saturday. When an American League team with a win rate between 47% and 53% faces a National League team at home, our PRO System indicates that the AL team wins 61% of those games — at certain points of the season.
Saturday's Padres vs. Rays game is a match. Even if we regress the win rate to 60%, that implies a fair moneyline price right around -150.
Tampa Bay is cheap on a Saturday home game.
Pick: Rays ML (-120 | Play to -142)
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Tony Sartori's Red Sox vs Tigers Best Bet: A Low Scoring Affair?
By Tony Sartori
The only reason that the line is as short as -102 on this under is because Boston possesses a strong lineup. With that said, if anyone is capable of shutting it down, it would be this year's runaway AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal.
Skubal is 15-4 through 26 starts with a commanding 2.58 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. His underlying metrics are equally dominant as the southpaw ranks in the 80th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate, walk rate and hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, Nick Pivetta takes the mound for the Red Sox. He is obviously not on Skubal's level, but Pivetta still ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate and walk rate.
He should also face little resistance against Detroit, a team that ranks in the bottom 10 in hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-102 | Play to -110)
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Nick Martin's Red Sox vs Tigers Best Bet: Skubal Starting to Crack?
By Nick Martin
It's not a lot of fun to fade a pitcher who's about to win the Cy Young in Tarik Skubal, but at +140 (Bet365) we look to be getting the right number to do so Saturday.
Nick Pivetta has struggled of late, but his underlying profile still looks strong enough to bet on a bounce-back at this number. Across Pivetta's last six outings, he has pitched to an xFIP of 3.88 with a K-BB% of 23.6. He's faced tough competition in that span too, as three of those outings were against the Dodgers, Orioles, and Astros, as well as a rough outing at Coors Field on July 24th.
Pivetta's recent velocities remain on par with his average this season, and he continues to feature elite Stuff+ ratings. He gets a solid matchup versus a Tigers side which holds a wRC+ of 93 against righties since the All-Star break, as well as a 24.2% strikeout rate and a hard-hit rate of 31.3%.
The Red Sox have hit left-handed pitching very well entering this matchup. They own a fifth-best wRC+ of 114 since the All-Star break and hold a fourth-best hard-hit rate of 36.6%.
Skubal has been a little more hittable of late, though my case here is not necessarily based on knocking the soon-to-be Cy Young winner by any means. Over the last five starts, Skubal has pitched to an ERA of 3.56 with an xFIP of 3.14 and a hard-hit rate of 40%.
Pivetta has the potential to step-for-step with Skubal on a good day, and he is benefiting from a softer matchup compared to Skubal who is handling one of the league's better lineups versus LHP. At anything better than +130 I see value in backing the Red Sox to steal this important matchup.
Pick: Red Sox ML (+130)
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