MLB Best Bets & Odds: 3 Picks & Predictions for Wednesday
Via Casey Sykes/Getty Images. Pictured: Sonny Gray #54 of the St. Louis Cardinals pitches during the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park on July 20, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia.
There's a full slate of MLB action on Wednesday, and our staff of baseball betting experts wants to share three MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, July 31, including picks and predictions for Twins vs Mets, Braves vs Brewers and Rangers vs Cardinals.
MLB Best Bets: 3 Picks & Predictions for Wednesday
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:10 p.m. | |
  | 2:10 p.m. | |
  | 2:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Twins vs. Mets
By Nick Martin
Pablo Lopez continues to look like a pitcher worth buying after an unlucky start to the campaign, and Wednesday's matchup against Luis Severino provides a quality opportunity to do so as the Twins are only slight favorites as they look to avoid a sweep in the series finale.
Lopez has underperformed most expected indicators all season long but has finally started to find success where it matters with a 2.84 ERA over his last six starts. In those outings, he holds an xFIP of 2.40 and has struck out 11.37 batters per nine. In his two starts since the All-Star Game, he holds a WHIP of only 0.86.
The Twins lineup has been excellent against right-handed pitching recently and should provide a stiff test for Severino. They rank fourth with a wRC+ of 130 against right-handed pitching over the last month, fourth in BB/K ratio and hold a 31.8% Hard-hit Rate.
Carlos Correa's absence undoubtedly hurts, but at least Minnesota is currently enjoying a healthy Royce Lewis, and Brooks Lee getting a chance at shortstop is far from a bad situation.
In the same span, the Mets have hit to a wRC+ of 119 against RHP, struck out 22.5% of the time and hold a Hard-hit Rate of 35%.
Over his last 30 and 1/3 innings, Severino has pitched to an ERA of 4.45 and an xFIP of 4.90. He has struck out 6.82 batters per nine in that span and allowed a Hard-hit Rate 33% of the time. His Chase Rate has also dropped down to 24% in those five starts.
The Twins look worthy of being a larger favorite than their current price of -115 with Lopez making the start, and anything better than -125 is worthy of a bet.
Pick: Twins Moneyline -108 (Bet to -125)
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Braves vs. Brewers
By Tony Sartori
There's a battle of aces on Wednesday afternoon as Chris Sale and the Braves take on Freddy Peralta and the Brewers. Sale is the front-runner for NL Cy Young, and for good reason.
Through 19 starts, the southpaw is 13-3 with a commanding 2.68 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. His underlying metrics are somehow even stronger as he boasts a 2.63 xERA and ranks in the 93rd percentile or higher in Average Exit Velocity, Strikeout Rate and Hard-hit Rate.
Entering this game in particularly great form, Sale is 5-2 over his past eight starts with a 2.17 ERA. This success is likely to continue against Milwaukee, a team he is 1-0 against in two career meetings with a 1.13 ERA. There were six or fewer total runs scored in each of those two outings against the Brewers.
Meanwhile, Peralta's stats have also been impressive. He ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, Average Exit Velocity, Strikeout Rate and Hard-hit Rate.
Finally, these are two of the best bullpens in the league as both relief staffs rank in the top three of the league in ERA.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-120 | Bet to -125)
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Rangers vs. Cardinals
By D.J. James
Sonny Gray has been exactly what the St. Louis Cardinals have needed in the rotation. The veteran righty carries an ERA of 3.79 with a comparable xERA. His Strikeout Rate is above 30% with a Walk Rate of 6%. His Average Exit Velocity is a bit high at 90 MPH, but with a Hard-hit Rate around average, he is not allowing these hard hits as often.
He and the Cardinals will face the Texas Rangers and Andrew Heaney on Wednesday. Heaney has a 3.77 ERA and an xERA just above 4.00. His Hard-hit Rate is a little worse than Gray’s with a comparable Average Exit Velocity. However, he has an above average Walk Rate and an exceptional Chase Rate.
However, the kicker in this game is that both of these teams have struggled at the plate lately.
Against lefties, St. Louis has a 98 wRC+ in July with a 9.1% Walk Rate and 20.5% Strikeout Rate.
Against righties, Texas has a 96 wRC+ with an 8.7% Walk Rate and 20.9% Strikeout Rate.
In relief, both have been about league average but have enough options to rely on after both of these solid starters exit the game.
Look for both Gray and Heaney to limit walks and go relatively deep into this game. Since neither team has crushed this type of pitching, the starters could excel and make an immediate impact.
Bet the under in this one in a pitcher’s duel. Take the under from 9.5 down to 8.5 at -110.
Pick: Under 9.5 (Bet to 8.5 at -110)
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