Four Division Series games are on tap for Wednesday, October 9, and our baseball betting experts are all over it with MLB best bets and prop picks — all on Yankees vs Royals Game 3.
Wednesday MLB predictions include a play on the over/under and an Aaron Judge prop.
MLB Best Bets, Prop Picks & Predictions Today — 10/9
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:08 p.m. | |
| 7:08 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
D.J. James's Yankees vs Royals Over/Under Prediction
By D.J. James
Both the New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals slumped a bit heading into the playoffs, especially when an opposing right-hander faced them.
New York will throw Clarke Schmidt on Wednesday. Schmidt held a 2.85 ERA and 3.75 xERA this year with an Average Exit Velocity of 89.1 mph and Hard-Hit Rate in the 55th percentile.
His Barrel Rate was far above average. Yes, he had some trouble with walks occasionally, but his strikeout rate was almost 27% with plenty of whiffs.
Kansas City will throw Seth Lugo, who had a 3.00 ERA and 3.72 xERA this season. His Average Exit Velocity was 88.5 mph with a Hard-Hit Rate in the 47th percentile. His walk rate was exceptional, even though he did not miss many bats.
Now, both lineups are the issue here. The Yankees held a 98 wRC+, 10.3% walk rate and 25% strikeout rate off righties in September. Walks will not take place with Lugo on the bump, so they may have to find another way on base.
The Royals had a 75 wRC+, 9% walk rate and 23.5% strikeout rate against righties in September. There is a reason they have put up most of their offense against southpaws in the postseason thus far.
In relief, the Yanks have had their issues but should have enough pieces behind Schmidt’s start. The Royals vastly improved their relief staff and should have weapons behind Lugo, as well.
Bet the under in this game from 8 to 7.
Pick: Under 8 (-110)
Tony Sartori's Yankees vs Royals Best Bet: Aaron Judge Home Run Prop
By Tony Sartori
Now feels like the time to sell high on right-hander Seth Lugo, who takes the mound for the Kansas City Royals in Game 3. While he has been on fire recently and owns a 3.00 ERA on the campaign, his underlying metrics suggest that regression is looming.
Lugo possesses a 3.72 xERA and ranks in the bottom half of the league in xBA, strikeout rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. It is that barrel rate and hard-hit rate that I specifically want to attack, and there is no better person to do so than the New York Yankees' Aaron Judge.
The AL MVP-to-be, Judge mashed 58 homers while producing a .701 SLG this season. His analytics are somehow even stronger, considering that he boasts a .742 xSLG and ranks in the 100th percentile in both barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Judge has yet to homer through the first two games — that is going to end sooner rather than later.
Pick: Aaron Judge to Hit Home Run (+280)
