There are 10 games on Thursday's slate, including several with playoff implications.
The season is winding down, so let's get right down to business. Here are our MLB best bets, predictions and picks for Thursday, August 22. Our experts have found the best value on the MLB odds board and their best bets are below.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:05 p.m. | |
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  | 2:15 p.m. | |
| 2:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tony Sartori's Rockies vs Nationals MLB Best Bet: Fade Corbin
By Tony Sartori
We can fade Patrick Corbin on the moneyline at plus-money. That's it, that's the write up. You can move along to the next section.
For those with ever-curious minds, I'll briefly dissect why we are in the presence of such a rare opportunity. There are three reasons why we are catching Colorado at plus-money and I'll offer quick rebuttals of all three.
First, Cal Quantrill takes the mound for the Rockies. He's not good, but he does outrank Corbin in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Second, both teams hover around the same marks in the hitting department. With that said, Colorado possesses the edge in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG, OPS and home runs.
Finally, Washington possesses home-field. That is helping keep this line in place, but it's not enough for me to pass up fading Corbin at plus-money.
Pick: Rockies (+102)
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Sean Treppedi's Guardians vs Yankees MLB Best Bet: Bet the Road 'Dog
By Sean Treppedi
On July 31, the Yankees beat the Phillies for the third straight night, pushing their winning streak to five games. Since then, their pitching has gone in the tank, ranking 27th in ERA among starters.
More recently, the bullpen has been problematic, too. New York relievers have a 4.50 ERA since Aug. 1, making Clay Holmes’ glaring incompetency to save games a more imminent issue.
Gerrit Cole’s down year is also a thorn. After the ace returned from a scratch due to body fatigue, he’s strung together three solid outings. However, he’s also shown slight velocity decreases across his arsenal and is more vulnerable than ever to quality contact with balls knocked into play, according to Statcast.
Cole’s ERA is trending toward a career-worst, but he’s still striking out more than 10 hitters per nine innings. On Thursday afternoon, he faces a Guardians lineup that has struck out the fourth-fewest times in baseball.
Gavin Williams, who opposes Cole in this matinee, has made notable strides in his sophomore season, touching 97 mph on his fastball and owning a significantly more effective 2.49 ERA on the road.
Backing an inexperienced pitcher against the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner is hazardous, but it’s worth casting the name value aside with the Guardian’s MLB-leading bullpen (2.65 ERA) as an advantage, along with their .500 record as road underdogs.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline (+140)
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William Boor's Brewers vs Cardinals MLB Best Bet: Multiple Advantages for Milwaukee
By William Boor
Two teams trending in opposite directions meet when the Cardinals host the Brewers on Thursday afternoon.
Not only is Milwaukee cruising toward the NL Central crown, but the Brewers have also won six of seven. Conversely, St. Louis has lost seven of nine, though the Cardinals did beat the Brewers on Wednesday night.
Milwaukee has been the better team all season and is also playing better at the moment. To me, the Brewers are the clear side in this game, but let's add a little more research.
The Brewers' offense ranks 11th in baseball in terms of runs per game (4.78), while St. Louis, at 4.08, ranks 24th. Not only does Milwaukee boast the better offense, but it'll be going up against the lesser of the two starting pitchers. Miles Mikolas is set to start for the Cardinals and he's given up four or more earned runs in each of his past three starts, a span of just 13 2/3 innings. He's pitched to a 5.41 ERA and although his 4.45 xERA suggests positive regression is looming, 4.45 still isn't great. Mikolas also ranks in the 10th percentile in xBA (.277), the ninth percentile in strikeout rate and the 27th percentile in hard-hit percentage. Simply put, that's not a pitcher I want to back.
Freddy Peralta will get the start for Milwaukee and although he had a couple tough outings early in the month, he threw six innings of one-run ball in his most recent start, so perhaps he's back on track. The right-hander has a 4.00 ERA and a 3.85 xERA, while ranking in the 86th percentile in strikeout rate.
Milwaukee has multiple advantages in this matchup, so I have no problem betting the Brewers on the road.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline (-118)
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D.J. James's Brewers vs Cardinals MLB Best Bet: Bet the Brewers
By D.J. James
The St. Louis Cardinals aren't good. They have had a pretty rough run differential for quite some time, so as exciting as it was for them to be buyers at the deadline, this team doesn't look poised to make a run. Miles Mikolas will throw for them on Thursday afternoon. Mikolas only really thrives in one area: not walking hitters. He only walks 3.8% of batters and has a 16.6% strikeout rate. His average exit velocity is around 89 mph and he also has a below average hard-hit rate and ground-ball rate.
His opponent will be the Milwaukee Brewers. Freddy Peralta, who has a 4.00 ERA and a 3.85 xERA, will start for Milwaukee. He may have issues with walks, but his average exit velocity and hard-hit rates are far more encouraging than Mikolas’. In addition, Peralta has an elite 28.2% strikeout rate.
Milwaukee has a 112 wRC+, a 9.1% walk rate and a 24.5% strikeout rate in the past month.
St. Louis has an 84 wRC+, 6.8% walk rate, and 18.3% strikeout rate in the last month.
Milwaukee’s relief staff has a 3.32 xFIP, a 26.8% strikeout rate and a 7.1% walk rate in that timeframe, while the Cards have a 4.18 xFIP, a 19.2% strikeout rate and a 6.8% walk rate in the past month.
Overall, this line is too favorable toward the home team, which is slumping and has a worse starter going. Take the Brew Crew to win this divisional matchup and play them to -140.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline (-118)
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